A climate-change vulnerability and adaptation assessment for Brazil's protected areas

Brazil hosts the largest expanse of tropical ecosystems within protected areas (PAs), which shelter biodiversity and support traditional human populations. We assessed the vulnerability to climate change of 993 terrestrial and coastal-marine Brazilian PAs by combining indicators of climatic-change hazard with indicators of PA resilience (size, native vegetation cover, and probability of climate-driven vegetation transition). This combination of indicators allows the identification of broad climate-change adaptation pathways. Seventeen PAs (20,611 km²) were highly vulnerable and located mainly in the Atlantic Forest (7 PAs), Cerrado (6), and the Amazon (4). Two hundred fifty-eight PAs (756,569 km²), located primarily in Amazonia, had a medium vulnerability. In the Amazon and western Cerrado, the projected severe climatic change and probability of climate-driven vegetation transition drove vulnerability up, despite the generally good conservation status of PAs. Over 80% of PAs of high or moderate vulnerability are managed by indigenous populations. Hence, besides the potential risks to biodiversity, the traditional knowledge and livelihoods of the people inhabiting these PAs may be threatened. In at least 870 PAs, primarily in the Atlantic Forest and Amazon, adaptation could happen with little or no intervention due to low climate-change hazard, high resilience status, or both. At least 20 PAs in the Atlantic Forest, Cerrado, and Amazonia should be targeted for stronger interventions (e.g., improvement of ecological connectivity), given their low resilience status. Despite being a first attempt to link vulnerability and adaptation in Brazilian PAs, we suggest that some of the PAs identified as highly or moderately vulnerable should be prioritized for testing potential adaptation strategies in the near future.     

灰色协调度模型在产业用水系统分析中的应用

揭示产业用水系统的时空动态发展规律，探讨其内部的协调关系，是开展节水型社会建设规划，实现水资源可持续利用的关键。然而，目前对产业用水系统的协调性分析还缺乏较为有效的理论和方法。以往在利用协调度模型进行用水系统有序度研究时，通常采用两段叙述的线性分段函数表示，较不适用于描述产业用水系统内部要素的非线性结构。因此，针对产业用水系统的特性，利用灰关联原理建立有序度函数，以建立更适于用水系统分析的灰色协调度模型。利用该模型对上海市1997~2005年产业用水系统进行实证研究，结果显示：上海市产业用水系统基本有序，发展比较协调，其用水综合效益较大，但距离最优状态尚有潜力可挖；其中，农业用水子系统的发展较为欠缺，在未来用水规划中应予以重视。     

EFFECTS OF ADJACENT AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES AND WATERSHED CHARACTERISTICS ON STREAM MACROINVERTEBRATE COMMUNITIES1

Benthic macroinvertebrate communities in streams adjacent to cornfields, streams where cows had unrestricted access, and reference locations without agriculture were compared to examine the effects of local land use and land use/land cover in the watershed. At each local site, macroinvertebrates and a variety of habitat parameters were measured upstream, adjacent, downstream, and farther downstream of the local land use. A geographic information system (GIS) was used to calculate drainage basin area, land use/land cover percentages in each basin, and the distance from sample sites to the stream source. Three‐way analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) tests with date, site type, and sampling location as main effects were used to explore differences in macroinvertebrate metrics using median substrate size, percent hay/pasture area, and stream depth as covariates. The covariates significantly improved model fit and showed that multiple contributing factors influence community composition. Local impacts were greatest at sites where cows had access, probably because of sedimentation and embeddedness in the substrate. Differences between the upstream and the adjacent and downstream locations were not as great as expected, perhaps because upstream recolonization was reduced by agricultural impacts or because of differences in the intensity or proximity of agriculture to riparian areas in the watershed. The results underscore the importance of both local and watershed factors in controlling stream community composition.     

我国人口资源与食物问题

人口增多,耕地减少,部分地区供水不足,是我国人口与资源矛盾的基本格局。由于人口的压力,对资源实行超强度的利用,使较大范围的地区生态环境恶化,严重威胁农业生产,并成为许多地区多灾、低产、贫困的根本原因,较低的食物人均占有水平,将继续成为中国国民经济发展和人民生活水平提高的严重限制因素。增加食物,必须挖掘资源的潜力,开源与节流相结合,以内涵挖潜为主。首先是要立足现有的耕地,致力于提高单产;同时,合理开发水域、山地、草地等资源,广辟食物来源,提高非耕地资源的生产力,提高林牧渔业的发展水平。耕地应以深度开发为主,走资源节约型(节地、节水、节时、节能)的集约化道路。     

经济发达地区土地利用结构变化预测 --以江苏省江阴市为例

结构决定功能，把握土地利用结构变化的趋势，调整社会经济发展的策略。优化土地利用结构是土地可持续利用的关键。以经济发达地区江苏省江阴市为例，运用马尔柯夫链的理论与方法，构建土地利用结构转移的概率矩阵，预测江阴市2005年和2010年的土地利用结构，并分析其变化特征，以此来研究经济发达地区近期内可能的土地利用结构变化规律。模拟结果表明，经济发达地区土地利用结构变化存在着非农化趋势加快．农地数量减少加速的现象，如果为保证耕地的数量平衡，则可能导致农地内部结构极其不合理。根据研究结果，提出适当释放农地，促进经济发展；运用经济杆杠，提高非农用地利用效率；重视耕地质量，改善生态环境的政策建议。     

湖北省近期土地利用变化的遥感分析

土地利用，覆盖变化研究是全球变化研究的前沿和热点之一。采用遥感、GIS一体化技术．利用1989～1990年和1999～2000年获取的陆地资源卫星图像，建立了湖北省近10年来两个不同时期的同比例尺土地利用动态变化数据库，并对变化的时空特征进行了分析。结果表明，耕地减少了0．68％，林地减少了0．18％，各类建设用地总计增加了。7．92％．水域面积增加的幅度为3．01％。土地利用与土地覆盖变化的转型主要发生于上述4类之中．尤其是耕地与水域相互之间的转变比较频繁。动态度计算表明，土地利用变化最快的区域均处于大中城市及其周边地区；江汉平原、鄂东的大部分地区及鄂西的宜昌．土地利用变化较快；鄂西山区绝大部分、大别山区部分县及鄂东南幕阜山区的通山县，土地利用变化不大。     

湖北省土地资源遥感调查与评价

根据1999年TM影像解译了湖北省土地利用现状，然后以土地利用现状图为基础，采用地理信息系统技术，结合湖北省的实际情况，选择土壤、地形、坡度等评价因子，对湖北省土地资源进行了适宜性评价，简要地将全省土地资源划分为九等。评价结果表明：湖北省水热条件好，土地适宜性广，宜农林牧业同时利用的土地广泛分布；但是该省的基本农田面积小，土地垦殖率高，低产田面积大，后备耕地资源严重不足；土地利用结构与土地资源的供给条件、利用要求不相适宜，利用效益末得到充分发挥。     

大型水利水电工程实施占用耕地补偿制度的思考

本文在分析长江三峡工程用地特点的基础上。对大型水利水电工程实施耕地补偿制度中的问题和困难进行调查研究，认为应从新的视角来认识大型水利水电工程的耕地占补平衡问题。进而探索耕地补偿制度实施的新途径和新方式。应在耕地总量动态平衡政策适当调整的基础上．将“以地补地”和“缴费补地”的方式相结合。既通过土地整理．在提商土地质量的前提下增加耕地的有效面积：又要落实耕地开垦费．扶持库区的土地整理。从而使库区的耕地占补制度顺利实施。     

Study on the Balance of Agricultural Water and Land Resources on Ningxia Plain

The article puts forward the process and means of regional water and land balance research, and then from two scenarios which are the balances under natural regulation and human intervention, calculated and analysed the balance between water and land on Ningxia Plain. For the balance under natural regulation named farmland water balance, using farmland water resource balance equation, the research estimated the monthly farmland＂ water balance of 8 major crops for all of the 12 counties on Ningxia Plain in the period of 1960-2001; for the balance under human intervention, the research estimated land-use water balance equation of the counties in 2000, and calculated the balance between land use and water resources including irrigating water of all the 12 counties on Ningxia Plain. Results showed that ①precipitation can not meet the water demand of the crops for growth and development on Ningxia Plain, and water shortage is the primary character of farmland water balance under natural regulation. ②the diversity of water and land balance of different counties is distinctly influenced by the crop structure, water quantity for irrigation and irrigation level. ③Irrigation water could meet the crop water demand on Ningxia Plain in 2000, but there was not much space to expand irrigating cultivated land.     

基于时序NDVI数据的鄱阳湖流域常绿覆被季节性变化特征

选择位于红壤丘陵区的鄱阳湖流域作为研究对象，利用1 km×1 km分辨率的时序SPOT4 VEGETATION数据，对流域内典型土地覆被--常绿覆被的绿度值、峰值、谷值、年均NDVI(NDVI-I)和NDVI年内极差(NDVI MM)等特征值进行了提取。在此基础上，探讨了不同常绿覆被类型的NDVI指数年内季节变化规律。结果表明：时序NDVI指数基本上能够较好地刻画不同常绿覆被类型之间的差异性，植被指数NDVI特征值随覆被的类型及其生长状态有规律地变化，即NDVI年均值和最小值基本上按“常绿阔叶林＞常绿针阔叶混交林＞常绿针叶林＞常绿针叶-落叶混交林”的顺序变化；典型常绿阔叶林的NDVI指数年内变化曲线基本上没有大的起伏波动；常绿针叶林以及常绿针阔叶混交林占主导地位的常绿混交林NDVI指数年内变化比较和缓，但常在8月和11月有所波动；以常绿针叶林为主、但有较多落〖JP2〗叶林混杂其中的常绿混交林，其NDVI指数年内变化曲线基本上呈和缓的单峰型波动。