Optimum forage allocation through chance-constrained programming

Most resource allocation models developed to aid resource planning have been deterministic; that is, the ecosystem and economic variables are assumed to be known with certainty. It is these elements that present problems concerning risk and uncertainty involved in decision making. The objective of this study is to present a mathematical approach for optimizing resource allocation in management situations in which random events occur. This particular technique of decision analysis is chance-constrained programming. The model makes possible the investigation of risk and uncertainty associated with resource management decision making. Range decision-makers must often stock their range before they are sure of the available forage; thus, the amount of available forage is a random element with which managers must contend. The chance-constrained approach to decision making may be used when such random events occur and when it is not possible to plan exactly for future events. Two parameters are used to adjust the mean value of constraints; these are the standard deviation of the constraint value (S_bi) and the probability term which is specified by the manager (K_αi). The mean values are adjusted by the product K_αiS_bi. In the study reported here, a K_αi value of 0.57 gave results which appeared to have usefulness. The results indicate that the penalties a rancher must assume for over-estimating his carrying capacity are greater than the penalties for underestimating the carrying capacity. With the value of the standard deviation used in the example, numbers of livestock and the corresponding net revenues should be about 22% less than those indicated by average forage production. With greater variation in forage production, the reduction would be greater. By using these values, the chance-constrained approach can meaningfully incorporate random variables into a decision model.     

Bird Use of Restoration and Reference Marshes Within the Barn Island Wildlife Management Area, Stonington, Connecticut, USA

/ Tidal marshes have been actively restored in Connecticut for nearly 20 years, but evaluations of these projects are typically based solely on observations of vegetation change. A formerly impounded valley marsh at the Barn Island Wildlife Management Area is a notable exception; previous research at this site has also included assessments of primary productivity, macroinvertebrates, and use by fishes. To determine the effects of marsh restoration on higher trophic levels, we monitored bird use at five sites within the Barn Island complex, including both restoration and reference marshes. Use by summer bird populations within fixed plots was monitored over two years at all sites. Our principal focus was Impoundment One, a previously impounded valley marsh reopened to full tidal exchange in 1982. This restoration site supported a greater abundance of wetland birds than our other sites, indicating that it is at least equivalent to reference marshes within the same system for this ecological function. Moreover, the species richness of birds and their frequency of occurrence at Impoundment One was greater than at 11 other estuarine marshes in southeastern Connecticut surveyed in a related investigation. A second marsh, under restoration for approximately ten years, appears to be developing in a similar fashion. These results complement previous studies on vegetation, macroinvertebrates, and fish use in this system to show that, over time, the reintroduction of tidal flooding can effectively restore important ecological functions to previously impounded tidal marshes.KEY WORDS: Estuarine; Tidal marsh; Wetland birds; Restoration     

Antimony distribution and environmental mobility at an historic antimony smelter site, New Zealand

A historic antimony smelter site at Endeavour Inlet, New Zealand has smelter residues with up to 17 wt.% antimony. Residues include coarse tailings (cm scale particles, poorly sorted), sand tailings (well sorted) and smelter slag (blocks up to 30 cm across). All of this material has oxidised to some degree over the ca. 100 years since the site was abandoned. Oxidation has resulted in acidification of the residues down to pH 2-5. Smelter slag contains pyrrhotite (FeS) and metallic antimony, and oxidation is restricted to surfaces only. The coarse tailings are the most oxidised, and few sulfide grains persist. Unoxidised sand tailings contain 10-20 vol.% stibnite (Sb2S3) containing up to 5% As, with subordinate arsenopyrite (FeAsS), and minor pyrite (FeS2). The sand tailings are variably oxidised on a scale of 2-10 cm, but original depositional layering is preserved during oxidation and formation of senarmontite (Sb2O3). Oxidation of sand tailings has resulted in localised mobility of both Sb and As on the cm scale, resulting in redistribution of these metalloids with iron oxyhydroxide around sand grain boundaries. Experiments demonstrate that Sb mobility decreases with time on a scale of days. Attenuation of both As and Sb occurs due to adsorption on to iron oxyhydroxides which are formed during oxidation of the smelter residues. There is no detectable loss of Sb or As from the smelter site into the adjacent river, <50 m away, which has elevated Sb (ca. 20 microg/l) and As (ca. 7 microg/l) from mineralised rocks upstream. Despite the high concentrations of Sb and As in the smelter residues, these metalloids are not being released into the environment.     

Biological impacts of ocean acidification: a postgraduate perspective on research priorities

Research into the effects of ocean acidification (OA) on marine organisms has greatly increased during the past decade, as realization of the potential dramatic impacts has grown. Studies have revealed the multifarious responses of organisms to OA conditions, indicating a high level of intra- and interspecific variation in species’ ability to accommodate these alterations. If we are to provide policy makers with sound, scientific input regarding the expected consequences of OA, we need a broader understanding of these predicted changes. As a group of 20 multi-disciplinary postgraduate students from around the globe, with a study focus on OA, we are a strong representation of ‘next generation’ scientists in this field. In this unique cumulative paper, we review knowledge gaps in terms of assessing the biological impacts of OA, outlining directions for future research.     

Phylogeography of the Antarctic planktotrophic brittle star Ophionotus victoriae reveals genetic structure inconsistent with early life history

In the marine environment, connectivity is influenced by physical oceanography as well as life history and behavioral traits, which in combination with historical events such as geology, physical oceanography, and climate, determine population structure. The Antarctic brittle star Ophionotus victoriae develops via a feeding planktonic larval stage, and therefore has potential for long-distance dispersal throughout its Antarctic/subantarctic range. To evaluate this hypothesis, phylogeography of this ecologically dominant species was elucidated by sequence analysis of two mtDNA genes from individuals collected throughout the Antarctic Peninsula and from two subantarctic islands. Counter to expectations of genetic homogeneity, mtDNA data revealed substantial levels of genetic differentiation as well as diversity. Although there were some genetically homogeneous populations, such as those throughout Bransfield Strait, we found O. victoriae to have significant population structure throughout much of the Antarctic Peninsula, with evidence of potential cryptic speciation between the western and eastern Antarctic Peninsula. Furthermore, Antarctic Peninsula populations were genetically distinct from subantarctic island populations. The low levels of connectivity implied for O. victoriae contrast with those found for many other Antarctic benthic taxa, and suggest a complex interplay between oceanography, recent climate history, and larval ecology.     

Climate change threatens polar bear populations: a stochastic demographic analysis

The polar bear (Ursus maritimus) depends on sea ice for feeding, breeding, and movement. Significant reductions in Arctic sea ice are forecast to continue because of climate warming. We evaluated the impacts of climate change on polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea by means of a demographic analysis, combining deterministic, stochastic, environment-dependent matrix population models with forecasts of future sea ice conditions from IPCC general circulation models (GCMs). The matrix population models classified individuals by age and breeding status; mothers and dependent cubs were treated as units. Parameter estimates were obtained from a capture-recapture study conducted from 2001 to 2006. Candidate statistical models allowed vital rates to vary with time and as functions of a sea ice covariate. Model averaging was used to produce the vital rate estimates, and a parametric bootstrap procedure was used to quantify model selection and parameter estimation uncertainty. Deterministic models projected population growth in years with more extensive ice coverage (2001-2003) and population decline in years with less ice coverage (2004-2005). LTRE (life table response experiment) analysis showed that the reduction in lambda in years with low sea ice was due primarily to reduced adult female survival, and secondarily to reduced breeding. A stochastic model with two environmental states, good and poor sea ice conditions, projected a declining stochastic growth rate, log lambdas, as the frequency of poor ice years increased. The observed frequency of poor ice years since 1979 would imply log lambdas approximately - 0.01, which agrees with available (albeit crude) observations of population size. The stochastic model was linked to a set of 10 GCMs compiled by the IPCC; the models were chosen for their ability to reproduce historical observations of sea ice and were forced with "business as usual" (A1B) greenhouse gas emissions. The resulting stochastic population projections showed drastic declines in the polar bear population by the end of the 21st century. These projections were instrumental in the decision to list the polar bear as a threatened species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act.     

Terrestrial habitat selection and strong density-dependent mortality in recently metamorphosed amphibians

To predict the effects of terrestrial habitat change on amphibian populations, we need to know how amphibians respond to habitat heterogeneity, and whether habitat choice remains consistent throughout the life-history cycle. We conducted four experiments to evaluate how the spatial distribution of juvenile wood frogs, Rana sylvatica (including both overall abundance and localized density), was influenced by habitat choice and habitat structure, and how this relationship changed with spatial scale and behavioral phase. The four experiments included (1) habitat manipulation on replicated 10-ha landscapes surrounding breeding pools; (2) short-term experiments with individual frogs emigrating through a manipulated landscape of 1 m wide hexagonal patches; and habitat manipulations in (3) small (4-m2); and (4) large (100-m2) enclosures with multiple individuals to compare behavior both during and following emigration. The spatial distribution of juvenile wood frogs following emigration resulted from differences in the scale at which juvenile amphibians responded to habitat heterogeneity during active vs. settled behavioral phases. During emigration, juvenile wood frogs responded to coarse-scale variation in habitat (selection between 2.2-ha forest treatments) but not to fine-scale variation. After settling, however, animals showed habitat selection at much smaller scales (2-4 m2). This resulted in high densities of animals in small patches of suitable habitat where they experienced rapid mortality. No evidence of density-dependent habitat selection was seen, with juveniles typically choosing to remain at extremely high densities in high-quality habitat, rather than occupying low-quality habitat. These experiments demonstrate how prediction of the terrestrial distribution of juvenile amphibians requires understanding of the complex behavioral responses to habitat heterogeneity. Understanding these patterns is important, given that human alterations to amphibian habitats may generate extremely high densities of animals, resulting in high density-dependent mortality.     

Comparison of 24 h averaged VOC monitoring results for residential indoor and outdoor air using Carbopack X-filled diffusive samplers and active sampling--a pilot study

Analytical results obtained by thermal desorption GC/MS for 24 h diffusive sampling of 11 volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are compared with results of time-averaged active sampling at a known constant flow rate. Air samples were collected with co-located duplicate diffusive sampling tubes and one passivated canister. A total of eight multiple-component sampling events took place at fixed positions inside and outside three private homes. Subsequently, a known amount of sample air was transferred from the canister to an adsorbent tube for analysis by thermal desorption GC/MS. Results for the 11 most prevalent compounds--Freon 11, 1,3-butadiene, benzene, toluene, tetrachloroethene, ethylbenzene, m,p-xylene, o-xylene, 4-ethyltoluene, 1,3,5-trimethylbenzene, and p-dichlorobenzene--show that the ratio of average study values (diffusive sampling to active sampling) is 0.92 with 0.70 and 1.14 extreme ratios. Absolute percent difference for duplicate samples using diffusive sampling was <10% for the four most prevalent compounds. Agreement between the two sampling approaches indicates that the prediction of approximately constant diffusive sampling rates based on previous laboratory studies is valid under the field conditions.