Reflections on the use of Bayesian belief networks for adaptive management

A broad range of tools are available for integrated water resource management (IWRM). In the EU research project NeWater, a hypothesis exists that IWRM cannot be realised unless current management regimes undergo a transition toward adaptive management (AM). This includes a structured process of learning, dealing with complexity, uncertainty etc. We assume that it is no longer enough for managers and tool researchers to understand the complexity and uncertainty of the outer natural system-the environment. It is just as important, to understand what goes on in the complex and uncertain participatory processes between the water managers, different stakeholders, authorities and researchers when a specific tool and process is used for environmental management. The paper revisits a case study carried out 2001-2004 where the tool Bayesian networks (BNs) was tested for groundwater management with full stakeholder involvement. With the participation of two researchers (the authors) and two water managers previously involved in the case study, a qualitative interview was prepared and carried out in June 2006. The aim of this ex-post evaluation was to capture and explore the water managers' experience with Bayesian belief networks when used for integrated and adaptive water management and provide a narrative approach for tool enhancement.     

Long term changes in atmospheric N and S throughfall deposition and effects on soil solution chemistry in a Scots pine forest in the Netherlands

In a Scots pine forest the throughfall deposition and the chemical composition of the soil solution was monitored since 1984. (Inter)national legislation measures led to a reduction of the deposition of nitrogen and sulphur. The deposition of sulphur has decreased by approximately 65%. The total mineral-nitrogen deposition has decreased by ca. 25%, which is mainly due to a reduction in ammonium-N deposition (−40%), since nitrate-N deposition has increased (+50%). The nitrogen concentration in the upper mineral soil solution at 10 cm depth has decreased, leading to an improved nutritional balance, which may result in improved tree vitality. In the drainage water at 90 cm depth the fluxes of NO₃⁻ and SO₄²⁻ have decreased, resulting in a reduced leeching of accompanying base cations, thus preserving nutrients in the ecosystem. It may take still several years, however, before this will meet the prerequisite of a sustainable ecosystem.     

Treibhausgasemissionen zukünftiger Erdgasbereitstellung für Deutschland

Ohne Zusammenfassung Original erschienen in UWSF – Z Umweltchem ?kotox 20(2):133–144 (2008) DOI: Herausgeber: Martin Pehnt und Eckard Helmers     

CHemical and Biological Assessment of an Urban, Estuarine marsh in Northeastern New Jersey USA

Oritani Marsh in the Hackensack Meadowlands of urbanized northeastern New Jersey USA was assessed in 2000 for vegetation, soil/sediment chemistry, abundance/diversity of benthic invertebrates, and bird and mammal usage. Vegetatively, both marsh and uplands are dominated by tall, dense Phragmites australis. Small patches (less than 2 hectares total) dominated by Spartina spp. were found at the lowest elevations. Soil/sediment cores were sliced into 5 intervals and analyzed for metals, pesticides and volatile/semivolatile organic compounds. Thirteen locations had at least one chemical above Long et al.’s [Environmental Management, 19, 1995, 81--97] “Effects Range-Median” (ERM). Seven metals and nine organics exceeded ERM in at least one sample, with mercury showing the most exceedances. The surface 15 cm interval was generally more contaminated with metals than the 15 to 30 cm interval; the reverse was true for semivolatile organic compounds. Twenty taxa of benthic macroinvertebrates were collected, with each location producing from 1 to 9 taxa. Abundance ranged from 11 to 3,889 individuals/m². Number of taxa was moderately (r ² between 0.40 and 0.70) negatively correlated with zinc, beryllium, nickel and arsenic concentrations; no other chemical’s r ² was above 0.25. Diversity was moderately negatively correlated with arsenic and beryllium. These correlations were unexpected: zinc, beryllium, nickel and arsenic were not the chemicals found at the highest concentrations relative to benchmarks. Number of taxa, abundance and diversity were moderately (negatively) correlated with elevation; organic carbon was moderately (positively) correlated with abundance. All other correlations were weak (r ² < 0.35). Live traps captured only one mammal species, the meadow jumping mouse. Bird observations revealed 39 species, dominated by a few common species.     

Catalyst deterioration over the lifetime of small utility engines

In this paper, the deterioration of catalysts in small, four-stroke, spark-ignition engines is described. The laboratory testing performed followed a proven test method that mimics the lifetime of a small air-cooled utility engine operating under normal field conditions. The engines used were single-cylinder, 6.5-hp, side-valve engines. These engines have a nominal 125-hr lifetime. The effectiveness of the catalysts was determined by testing exhaust emissions before and after the catalyst to determine the catalyst's efficiency. This was done several times during the lifetime of the engines to determine the deterioration in the performance of the catalysts at lowering pollutant emissions. Additional testing was performed on the catalysts to determine wear patterns, contamination, and recoverable activity. The results indicate that considerable catalyst deterioration is occurring over the lifetime of the engine. The results reveal that soot buildup, poisons, and active surface loss appear to be the contributing factors to the deterioration. These results were determined after analyzing the exhaust emissions data, scanning electron microscope results analysis, and the impact of regeneration attempts. An ANOVA statistical analysis was performed, and it was determined that the emissions are also impacted, to some degree, by time and the engine itself.     

Carbon monoxide from composting due to thermal oxidation of biomass

Emissions of carbon monoxide (CO) were observed from decomposing organic wastes and litter under laboratory, pilot composting plant, and natural conditions. Field studies included air from inside a compost heap of about 200 m3, emissions from composting of livestock wastes at a biologically operating farm, and leaf litter pile air samples. The concentration of CO was up to 120 micromol mol(-1) in the compost piles of green waste, and up to 10 micromol mol(-1) in flux chambers above livestock waste windrow composts. The mean CO flux rates were approximately 20 mg CO m(-2) h(-1) for compost heaps of green waste, and varied from 30 to 100 mg CO m(-2) h(-1) for fresh dung windrows. Laboratory studies using a temperature and ventilation-controlled substrate container were performed to elucidate the origin of CO, and included hay samples of fixed moisture content at temperatures between 5 and 65 degrees C, including nonsterilized as well as sterilized samples. The concentration of CO was up to 160 micromol mol(-1) in these experiments, and Arrhenius-type plot analyses resulted in activation energies of 65 kJ mol(-1) for thermochemically produced CO from the nonsterilized compost substrate. Sterilized samples showed dramatically reduced CO2 but virtually unchanged CO emissions, albeit at a slightly lower activation energy, likely a result of the high-temperature sterilization. Though globally and regionally these CO emissions are only a minor source, thermochemically produced CO emissions might affect local air quality in and near composting facilities.