模糊综合评价法在矿区塌陷土地复垦潜力评估中的应用

为了合理利用土地、提高土地生产率、改善矿区及其周围的生态环境，对矿区塌陷土地复垦潜力进行了研究。阐述了模糊综合评价法的基本原理，并以南票矿区为例，选择了塌陷土地复垦潜力评价的二层树状结构因子，确定了隶属度函数、评价指标权重和评价集，得出了塌陷土地复垦潜力的评价结果。为其他矿区塌陷土地复垦潜力评价提供了理论依据。     

人工神经网络在预测深基坑周边地表沉降变形中的应用研究

深基坑开挖引起的周边地表变形预测是一个复杂非线性问题,引起地表沉降的影响因素很多,各因素之间呈高度的非线性关系。传统的基坑用边地表沉降变形预测方法存在着一定的局限性,其预测精度有待提高,而人工神经网络是一种多元非线性动力学系统,可以灵活方便地对多成因的复杂未知系统进行高度建模,实现全面考虑各种主要影响因素的深基坑周边地表沉降变形预测。本文介绍了误差反向传播(BP)网络模型的结构、学习过程及其算法的改进,径向基函数(RBF)网络模型的结构及其学习过程;分析了影响深基坑开挖周边土体沉降变形的主要影响因素;以25个基坑工程的地表沉降实测资料为训练样本,建立了11个输入影响因素的BP神经网络模型和RBF神经网络模型,通过对样本的学习训练过程及对5个检验样本的预测精度,说明了人工神经网络用于预测基坑周边地表沉降的可行性和准确性。     

航班起飞过程的风险识别与控制

飞机起飞阶段是事故多发阶段,为了进行风险识别与控制,设计了定性判别方法和定量计算仿真算法,并以具体飞机坠毁事故为例分析了安全裕度.分别计算了飞机冲出跑道的速度、距离和逃生时间.中断起飞的速度与时间,是火灾发生后的判断关键,也构成了飞机起飞事故的裕度.结果表明,中断起飞的安全裕度比坠毁的大,且关于中断起飞的规定有矛盾之处;用于逃生的90 s规则高于中断起飞的决断速度的限制规定.该分析方法为处理危急时刻的两难决策问题提供了理论指导.     

Dryland characteristics and its optimized eco‐productive paradigms for sustainable development in China

Dryland area occupies 37% of the national territory in China. Desertification and other disasters have limited dryland sustainable development. Here we overview the dryland characteristics and desertification status and introduce four regionally optimized eco‐productive paradigms for dryland sustainable development, i.e., the mountain‐oasis paradigm in arid desert; the small watershed‐based paradigm on the Loess Plateau; the integrated animal husbandry paradigm on the Inner Mongolia Steppe and the agro‐pastoral transitional region; and three circle paradigm on the Ordos Plateau. These paradigms are established on the basis of regional landscape patterns and their underlying material and energy flow rules, and different functional belts are determined and capitalized upon with the integrated consideration of regional biogeophysical processes, biogeochemical cycles and biogeosocial relations. These paradigms cannot cover all complex landscape types, but provide theoretical frameworks and practicable models for dryland sustainable development in China.     

电感耦合等离子体质谱法在环境监测中的应用

针对ICP-MS技术的使用特点及其近年来在环境监测领域的应用进行综合阐述，并对ICP-MS技术的发展前景作出简单的评述。     

固定化混合菌修复油污染地表水的研究

从辽河油田受石油污染的河床底泥中筛选出一株芽孢杆菌(Bacillus sp.)和一株黄杆菌(Flavobacterium sp.)，采用二次交联化学方法对2株细菌单独及混合固定，分别进行了不同接种量的固定化细菌对油的降解，以及固定化混合菌对环境的耐受性和在自然地表水中对油的降解进行研究，结果表明，在相同时间内固定化混合菌对油的降解效果明显优于固定化单株菌，而且都优于游离菌。固定化混合菌pH在6～10、温度在20～40℃范围内能保持较好的活性。在120 h时，固定化混合菌对自然地表水中油的降解率达94.5%,对地表水中COD的去除率达89.6%。扫描电子显微镜分析显示，固定化载体的微观结构适合细菌的生长，固定化混合菌在载体内部形成高密度的菌群。以上的研究为固定化微生物应用于油污染地表水的生物修复提供了一定的理论基础。     

A Sensitivity Analysis of an Integrated Modelling Approach to Assess the Risk of Wind-borne Spread of Foot-and-mouth Disease Virus from Infected Premises

The sensitivity of an integrated model to assess the potential for wind-borne spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) to variations in key parameters controlling different physical and biological processes was evaluated. The estimated number of farms at risk is sensitive to the virus strain used and the accompanying effective contact rate. The C Noville strain increased the estimated number of exposed farms ranked as high and medium risk of being infected by a factor of 5, compared to the baseline, based on the O UKG 2001 strain. The inclusion of a model for biological ageing of the virus can also have a significant effect on the concentration patterns arising from transport and dispersion of the virus. Its inclusion has the practical advantage of markedly reducing the time required for the calculations. The estimated number of farms affected by exposure to high and medium virus concentrations is not grossly sensitive to attenuation caused by temperature or relative humidity effects. Changes in susceptibility to infection, as determined by the parameter θ in the exposure-risk model, does not change the configuration of the virus plumes, but it does change the distribution of farms at risk by risk category. These findings suggest that a good understanding of characteristics (excretion rates from infected animals, susceptibility of different species to infection, virus survival, etc.) of the virus strain involved in an FMD outbreak is necessary to provide a reliable assessment of the risk of wind-borne spread. In the event of an incursion of FMD, provision for laboratory studies on the virus will be an essential component of the disease response and should be factored into contingency plans.

村级水资源的管理与利用研究--来自南方四个村的案例分析

农村水资源及其相关设施的改革需要更多了解村和户层次上的现实状况和机制安排。以避免改革扭曲和失败。通过对湖北和广西共四个村的村委会、关键知情人及120个农户的调查。在村和农户两个层次上描述水资源及其相关设施的管理与利用，尤其是在干旱年份村和户所采取的策略。并深入分析了农村村级水资源管理与利用的制度安排与问题。得出的结论是。追求水利管理效率的市场化改革需要考虑干旱的威胁，要有基于风险的制度设计和法律保障。     

中国实施生态旅游认证的机遇与挑战

在界定生态旅游认证、分析建立生态旅游认证体系意义的基础上．对绿色环球21、澳大利亚的NEAP、厄瓜多尔的Smart Voyager等目前国际知名的认证体系进行了介绍．重点分析了中国实施生态旅游认证的机遇和面临的挑战，并对我国建立生态旅游认证体系的必要性及相关问题提出了建议。