Response of balanced network models to large-scale perturbation: Implications for evaluating the role of small pelagics in the Gulf of Maine

Exploring the response of an ecosystem, and subsequent tradeoffs among its biological community, to human perturbations remains a key challenge for the implementation of an ecosystem approaches to fisheries (EAF). To address this and related issues, we developed two network (or energy budget) models, Ecopath and Econetwrk, for the Gulf of Maine ecosystem. These models included 31 network “nodes” or biomass state variables across a broad range of trophic levels, with the present emphasis to particularly elucidate the role of small pelagics. After initial network balancing, various perturbation scenarios were evaluated to explore how potential changes to different fish, fisheries and lower trophic levels can affect model outputs. Categorically across all scenarios and interpretations thereof, there was minimal change at the second trophic levels and most of the “rebalancing” after a perturbation occurred via alteration of the diet matrix. Yet the model results from perturbations to a balanced energy budget fall into one of three categories. First, some model results were intuitive and in obvious agreement with established ecological and fishing theory. Second, some model results were counter-intuitive upon initial observation, seemingly contradictory to known ecological and fishing theory; but upon further examination the results were explainable given the constraints of an equilibrium energy budget. Finally, some results were counter-intuitive and difficult to reconcile with theory or further examination of equilibrium constraints. A detailed accounting of biomass flows for example scenarios explores some of the non-intuitive results more rigorously. Collectively these results imply a need to carefully track biomass flows and results of any given perturbation and to critically evaluate the conditions under which a new equilibrium is obtained for these types of models, which has implications for dynamic simulations based off of them. Given these caveats, the role of small pelagics as a prominent component of this ecosystem remains a robust conclusion. We discuss how one might use this approach in the context of further developing an EAF, recognizing that a more holistic, integrated perspective will be required as we continue to evaluate tradeoffs among marine biological communities.     

Two stage fluid bed-plasma gasification process for solid waste valorisation: technical review and preliminary thermodynamic modelling of sulphur emissions

Gasification of solid waste for energy has significant potential given an abundant feed supply and strong policy drivers. Nonetheless, significant ambiguities in the knowledge base are apparent. Consequently this study investigates sulphur mechanisms within a novel two stage fluid bed-plasma gasification process. This paper includes a detailed review of gasification and plasma fundamentals in relation to the specific process, along with insight on MSW based feedstock properties and sulphur pollutant therein. As a first step to understanding sulphur partitioning and speciation within the process, thermodynamic modelling of the fluid bed stage has been performed. Preliminary findings, supported by plant experience, indicate the prominence of solid phase sulphur species (as opposed to H₂S) - Na and K based species in particular. Work is underway to further investigate and validate this.     

Tillage and field scale controls on greenhouse gas emissions

There is a lack of understanding of how associations among soil properties and management-induced changes control the variability of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from soil. We performed a laboratory investigation to quantify relationships between GHG emissions and soil indicators in an irrigated agricultural field under standard tillage (ST) and a field recently converted (2 yr) to no-tillage (NT). Soil cores (15-cm depth) were incubated at 25 degrees C at field moisture content and 75% water holding capacity. Principal component analysis (PCA) identified that most of the variation of the measured soil properties was related to differences in soil C and N and soil water conditions under ST, but soil texture and bulk density under NT. This trend became more apparent after irrigation. However, principal component regression (PCR) suggested that soil physical properties or total C and N were less important in controlling GHG emissions across tillage systems. The CO2 flux was more strongly determined by microbial biomass under ST and inorganic N content under NT than soil physical properties. Similarly, N2O and CH4 fluxes were predominantly controlled by NO3- content and labile C and N availability in both ST and NT soils at field moisture content, and NH4+ content after irrigation. Our study indicates that the field-scale variability of GHG emissions is controlled primarily by biochemical parameters rather than physical parameters. Differences in the availability and type of C and N sources for microbial activity as affected by tillage and irrigation develop different levels and combinations of field-scale controls on GHG emissions.     

What are the implications of sea-level rise for a 1.5, 2 and 3 °C rise in global mean temperatures in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna and other vulnerable deltas?

Even if climate change mitigation is successful, sea levels will keep rising. With subsidence, relative sea-level rise represents a long-term threat to low-lying deltas. A large part of coastal Bangladesh was analysed using the Delta Dynamic Integrated Emulator Model to determine changes in flood depth, area and population affected given sea-level rise equivalent to global mean temperature rises of 1.5, 2.0 and 3.0 °C with respect to pre-industrial for three ensemble members of a modified A1B scenario. Annual climate variability today (with approximately 1.0 °C of warming) is potentially more important, in terms of coastal impacts, than an additional 0.5 °C warming. In coastal Bangladesh, the average depth of flooding in protected areas is projected to double to between 0.07 and 0.09 m when temperatures are projected at 3.0 °C compared with 1.5 °C. In unprotected areas, the depth of flooding is projected to increase by approximately 50% to 0.21–0.27 m, whilst the average area inundated increases 2.5 times (from 5 to 13% of the region) in the same temperature frame. The greatest area of land flooded is projected in the central and north-east regions. In contrast, lower flood depths, less land area flooded and fewer people are projected in the poldered west of the region. Over multi-centennial timescales, climate change mitigation and controlled sedimentation to maintain relative delta height are key to a delta’s survival. With slow rates of sea-level rise, adaptation remains possible, but further support is required. Monitoring of sea-level rise and subsidence in deltas is recommended, together with improved datasets of elevation.

     

Identifying key needs for the integration of social–ecological outcomes in arctic wildlife monitoring

For effective monitoring in social–ecological systems to meet needs for biodiversity, science, and humans, desired outcomes must be clearly defined and routes from direct to derived outcomes understood. The Arctic is undergoing rapid climatic, ecological, social, and economic changes and requires effective wildlife monitoring to meet diverse stakeholder needs. To identify stakeholder priorities concerning desired outcomes of arctic wildlife monitoring, we conducted in-depth interviews with 29 arctic scientists, policy and decision makers, and representatives of indigenous organizations and nongovernmental organizations. Using qualitative content analysis, we identified and defined desired outcomes and documented links between outcomes. Using network analysis, we investigated the structure of perceived links between desired outcomes. We identified 18 desired outcomes from monitoring and classified them as either driven by monitoring information, monitoring process, or a combination of both. Highly cited outcomes were make decisions, conserve, detect change, disseminate, and secure food. These reflect key foci of arctic monitoring. Infrequently cited outcomes (e.g., govern) were emerging themes. Three modules comprised our outcome network. The modularity highlighted the low strength of perceived links between outcomes that were primarily information driven or more derived (e.g., detect change, make decisions, conserve, or secure food) and outcomes that were primarily process driven or more derived (e.g., cooperate, learn, educate). The outcomes expand monitoring community and disseminate created connections between these modules. Key desired outcomes are widely applicable to social–ecological systems within and outside the Arctic, particularly those with wildlife subsistence economies. Attributes and motivations associated with outcomes can guide development of integrated monitoring goals for biodiversity conservation and human needs. Our results demonstrated the disconnect between information- and process-driven goals and how expansion of the monitoring community and improved integration of monitoring stakeholders will help connect information- and process-derived outcomes for effective ecosystem stewardship.     

Global justice and the opportunity costs of conservation

Opportunity costs can represent a significant portion of the costs associated with conservation projects and frequently outstrip other kinds of cost. They are typically understood to refer to the benefits someone would have obtained if conservation projects had not required them to give up current activities, such as farming or hunting or if the land had been available for uses other than conservation. This familiar way of identifying opportunity costs is flawed, however, because it threatens to condone, or take advantage of, the injustices that many people face that affect their opportunities. I integrated ideas from the political theory of global justice to examine how the analysis of opportunity costs illustrates the importance of considering conservation and issues of global justice together, rather than thinking about them in isolation. I distinguish four baselines for defining opportunity costs. A status quo baseline defines opportunity costs by asking what people would have earned had a conservation project not happened. A willingness to accept baseline defines them by asking people what it would take to make them indifferent to whether a conservation project takes place or not. An antipoverty baseline suggests that opportunity costs have been met when people affected by a project are not left in poverty. An egalitarian baseline suggests opportunity costs have been met when people are not left in relative disadvantage, with worse than average opportunities. I argue that the egalitarian baseline is the most acceptable from the point of view of justice. Such a baseline would suggest that, in practice, many of the world's poor are being unjustly treated, or even exploited, as a result of conservation activities.     

Managing Baltic Sea fisheries under contrasting production and predation regimes: ecosystem model analyses

Based on an earlier published ecosystem model, we have explored possible effects of different management scenarios for the Baltic Sea. The scenarios include an oligotrophication of the system, a drastic increase in the number of seals, and changes in the fishery management. From these simulations we conclude that fisheries, seals, and eutrophication all have strong and interacting impacts on the ecosystem. These interactions call for integrated management. The modeling highlights the potential for conflicts among management mandates such as flourishing fisheries, rebuilt seal populations, and substantially reduced eutrophication. The results also suggest that fisheries management reference points have to be adjusted in response to changes in the presence of natural predators or ecosystem productivity.     

A proposal for design-based auto industry environmental regulation

As the U.S. auto industry tries to remain competitive in the face of evolving environmental rules, the new administration is presented with the opportunity to achieve environmental and economic goals through an industry-government partnership. The authors suggest a policy of total environmental quality as a starting point.     

Statistical distributions of uncertainty and variability in activated sludge model parameters.

All models used in activated sludge design and analysis use parameters to characterize process performance. The values of these parameters are often assumed based on default values recommended in the literature, but to date, no quantitative estimates of the parameter uncertainties have been published. Similarly, little attention has been given to quantifying site-specific parameter variability, even though its occurrence has been observed several times in the literature. In this paper, universal uncertainty distributions of the model parameters from Activated Sludge Model No. 1 are developed from a database of parameter values reported in the literature using Bayesian statistics. Site-specific distributions of parameter variability were developed using the same techniques. All parameter distributions developed demonstrated that significant uncertainty and variability exist, which could lead to overdesign or plant failure if not considered during the design process.