Assessing the recovery of lakes in southeastern Canada from the effects of acidic deposition

Reductions in North American sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions promoted expectations that aquatic ecosystems in southeastern Canada would soon recover from acidification. Only lakes located near smelters that have dramatically reduced emissions approach this expectation. Lakes in the Atlantic provinces, Quebec and Ontario affected only by long-range sources show a general decline in sulfate (SO4(2-)) concentrations, but with a relatively smaller compensating increase in pH or alkalinity. Several factors may contribute to the constrained (or most likely delayed) acidity response: declining base cation concentrations, drought-induced mobilization of SO4(2-), damaged internal alkalinity generation mechanisms, and perhaps increasing nitrate or organic anion levels. Monitoring to detect biological recovery in southeastern Canada is extremely limited, but where it occurs, there is little evidence of recovery outside of the Sudbury/Killarney area. Both the occurrence of Atlantic salmon in Nova Scotia rivers and the breeding success of Common Loons in Ontario lakes are in fact declining although factors beyond acidification also play a role. Chemical and biological models predict that much greater SO2 emission reductions than those presently required by legislation will be needed to promote widespread chemical and latterly, biological recovery. It may be unrealistic to expect that pre-industrial chemical and biological conditions can ever be reestablished in many lakes of southeastern Canada.     

Modeling Flow,Nutrient, and Sediment Delivery from a Large International Watershed Using a Field‐Scale SWAT Model

A large international watershed, the St. Clair‐Detroit River System, containing both extensive urban and agricultural areas, was modeled using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The watershed, located in southeastern Michigan, United States, and southwestern Ontario, Canada, encompasses the St. Clair, Clinton, Detroit (DT), Sydenham (SY), Upper, and Lower Thames subwatersheds. The SWAT input data and model resolution (i.e., hydrologic response units, HRUs), were established to mimic farm boundaries, the first time this has been done for a watershed of this size. The model was calibrated (2007–2015) and validated (2001–2006) with a mix of manual and automatic methods at six locations for flow and water quality at various time scales. The model was evaluated using Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency and percent bias and was used to explore major water quality issues. We showed the importance of allowing key parameters to vary among subwatersheds to improve goodness of fit, and the resulting parameters were consistent with subwatershed characteristics. Agricultural sources in the Thames and SY subwatersheds and point sources from DT subwatershed were major contributors of phosphorus. Spatial distribution of phosphorus yields at HRU and subbasin levels identified locations for potential management targeting for both point and nonpoint sources and revealed that in some subwatersheds nonpoint sources are dominated by urban sources.     

Driver's obesity and road crash risks in the United States

Objective: We assessed obesity trends in U.S. drivers involved in fatal crashes since 1999 and distinguished whether crash risk factors were different between obese and nonobese drivers.

Methods: We included only drivers of passenger cars involved in fatal traffic crashes between January 1, 1999, and December 31, 2012. Obesity was classified according to the World Health Organization guidelines and profiled between 1999 and 2012 using the adjusted prevalence ratio (aPR) from log-binomial regression models. Differences in crash risks (e.g., driver's fatality, drunk driving, seat belt nonuse) between obese and nonobese drivers were estimated as adjusted odds ratios (aORs) using logistic regression models.

Results: A total of 753,024 U.S. drivers were involved in fatal crashes, for which obesity information was available for 534,887. About 56% (n = 299,078) were driving passenger cars. The prevalence of class I obesity increased from 10% in 1999 to 14% in 2012 (aPR = 1.50, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.42–1.58), class II obesity from 3 to 5% (aPR = 2.22, 95% CI, 2.05–3.01), and class III obesity from 1 to 2% (aPR = 2.65; 95% CI, 2.27–3.10). Compared to nonobese controls, obese drivers had significantly higher risks for fatality (1.10 ≤ aOR ≤ 1.47), seat belt nonuse (1.00 ≤ aOR ≤ 1.21), need for extrication (1.01 ≤ aOR ≤ 1.23), and ambulance transport time ≥30 min (1.01 ≤ aOR ≤ 1.28). Compared to nonobese controls, obese drivers were less likely to drink drive (0.41 ≤ aOR ≤ 0.72) or speed >65 mph (0.78 ≤ aOR ≤ 0.93).

Conclusion: The rising national prevalence of obesity extends to U.S. drivers involved in fatal crashes and indicates the need to improve seat belt use, vehicle design, and postcrash care for this vulnerable population.     

Absence of metallothionein 3 expression in breast cancer is a rare but favorable marker that is under epigenetic control

Cadmium (Cd²⁺), a known carcinogen, mimics the effects of estrogen in the uterus and mammary gland suggesting its possible involvement in the development and progression of breast cancer. This lab showed through analysis of a small set of archival human diagnostic specimens that the third isoform of the classic Cd²⁺ binding protein metallothionein (MT-3) is not expressed in normal breast tissue, but is expressed in some breast cancers and that expression tends to correlate with a poor disease outcome. The goals of this study were to verify that overexpression of MT-3 in a large set of archival human diagnostic specimens tends to correlate with poor disease outcome and define the mechanism of MT-3 gene regulation in the normal breast epithelial cell. The results showed that MT-3 was expressed in approximately 90% of all breast cancers and was absent in normal breast epithelium. The lack of MT-3 staining in some cancers correlated with a favorable patient outcome. High frequency of MT-3 staining was also found for in situ breast cancer suggesting that MT-3 might be an early biomarker for breast cancer. The study also demonstrated that the MCF-10A cell line, an immortalized, non-tumorigenic model of human breast epithelial cells, displayed no basal expression of MT-3, nor was it induced by Cd²⁺. Treatment of the MCF-10A cells with the demethylation agent, 5-aza-2′-deoxycytidine, or the histone deacetylase inhibitor, MS-275, restored MT-3 mRNA expression. It was also shown that the MT-3 metal regulatory elements are potentially active binders of protein factors following treatment with these inhibitors suggesting that MT-3 expression may be subject to epigenetic regulation.     

Feather coloration in museum specimens is related to feather corticosterone

Colorful ornaments in birds are often sexually selected signals of quality, and variation in ornament expression may be mediated by physiological stress through the secretion of corticosterone. However, testing for links between ornamentation and corticosterone often requires sampling live animals, and such physiological measures may not be matched in the time span in which they were sampled (e.g., very dynamic plasma corticosterone vs. plumage coloration, which is relatively static). Here, we use museum specimens to test for a link between the color of a sexual ornament and feather corticosterone at the time of ornament formation. In red-winged blackbirds, Agelaius phoeniceus, carotenoid-based epaulets appear to be important in male–male social interactions, territory maintenance, and female choice. We measured reflectance spectra of adult male epaulets and plucked adjacent feathers for corticosterone analysis via radioimmunoassay. We controlled for differences in the number of mates, specimen age, and geography by selecting only males with one mate and only birds collected in Florida during a 3-year period. Epaulet hue and red chroma did not vary with feather corticosterone, but males whose epaulets scored high for mean brightness and red brightness had significantly lower corticosterone than males with low brightness scores. This correlation with brightness but not hue or chroma is consistent with an effect of corticosterone (CORT) on feather microstructure, with elevated CORT leading to lower reflectance of white light from the keratin matrix surrounding the carotenoid pigments.     

Carbon dynamics of forests in Washington, U.S.A.: 21st century projections based on climate-driven changes in fire regimes

During the 21st century, climate-driven changes in fire regimes will be a key agent of change in forests of the U.S. Pacific Northwest (PNW). Understanding the response of forest carbon (C) dynamics to increases in fire will help quantify limits on the contribution of forest C storage to climate change mitigation and prioritize forest types for monitoring C storage and fire management to minimize C loss. In this study, we used projections of 21st century area burned to explore the consequences of changes in fire regimes on C dynamics in forests of Washington State. We used a novel empirical approach that takes advantage of chronosequences of C pools and fluxes and statistical properties of fire regimes to explore the effects of shifting age class distributions on C dynamics. Forests of the western Cascades are projected to be more sensitive to climate-driven increases in fire, and thus projected changes in C dynamics, than forests of the eastern Cascades. In the western Cascades, mean live biomass C is projected to decrease by 24-37%, and coarse woody debris (CWD) biomass C by 15-25% for the 2040s. Loss of live biomass C is projected to be lower for forests of the eastern Cascades and Okanogan Highlands (17-26%), and CWD biomass is projected to increase. Landscape mean net primary productivity is projected to increase in wet low-elevation forests of the western Cascades, but decrease elsewhere. These forests, and moist forests of the Okanogan Highlands, are projected to have the greatest percentage increases in consumption of live biomass. Percentage increases in consumption of CWD biomass are greater than 50% for all regions and up to four times greater than increases in consumption of live biomass. Carbon sequestration in PNW forests will be highly sensitive to increases in fire, suggesting a cautious approach to managing these forests for C sequestration to mitigate anthropogenic CO2 emissions.     

Fish population dynamics in a seasonally varying wetland

Small fishes in seasonally flooded environments such as the Everglades are capable of spreading into newly flooded areas and building up substantial biomass. Passive drift cannot account for the rapidity of observed population expansions. To test the ‘reaction-diffusion’ mechanism for spread of the fish, we estimated their diffusion coefficient and applied a reaction-diffusion model. This mechanism was also too weak to account for the spatial dynamics. Two other hypotheses were tested through modeling. The first—the ‘refuge mechanism’—hypothesizes that small remnant populations of small fishes survive the dry season in small permanent bodies of water (refugia), sites where the water level is otherwise below the surface. The second mechanism, which we call the ‘dynamic ideal free distribution mechanism’ is that consumption by the fish creates a prey density gradient and that fish taxis along this gradient can lead to rapid population expansion in space. We examined the two alternatives and concluded that although refugia may play an important role in recolonization by the fish population during reflooding, only the second, taxis in the direction of the flooding front, seems capable of matching empirical observations. This study has important implications for management of wetlands, as fish biomass is an essential support of higher trophic levels.     

Pheromone of the elm bark beetle Scolytus laevis (Coleoptera: Scolytidae): stereoisomers of 4-methyl-3-heptanol reduce interspecific competition

Stereoisomers of 4-methyl-3-heptanol (MH) are pheromone components of several Scolytus bark beetles. The elm bark beetle Scolytus laevis (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) has in previous studies been caught in traps baited with commercial MH containing all four stereoisomers, but the lure has been considered a weak attractant. In this study, we addressed the question whether stereospecific responses by S. laevis to stereoisomers of MH might contribute to its niche separation from other sympatric Scolytus species. Using GC–MS, we analyzed extracts of hindguts and abdomens from male and female S. laevis and the sympatric S. triarmatus. We also tested all four MH-stereoisomers individually and in combinations in the field to determine their role for S. laevis. All four stereoisomers were synthesized via a boronic ester method with 1,2-dicyclohexylethanediol as chiral director. In addition, the (3S,4R)-stereoisomer of MH was prepared through enantioselective, lipase-mediated transesterification of a mixture of the four stereoisomers of MH. Females of both species contained small amounts of syn-MH, and males contained trace amounts of anti-MH. The anti stereoisomer (3R,4S)-MH was attractive to male and female S. laevis, whereas the syn stereoisomer (3S,4S)-MH acted as an inhibitor or deterrent and reduced the catch when added to the attractive isomer. The syn isomer is the main aggregation pheromone component of the larger and sympatric S. scolytus and possibly also of S. triarmatus. The avoidance response of S. laevis to the (3S,4S)-stereoisomer may reduce interspecific competition for host trees.