Reflections on the use of Bayesian belief networks for adaptive management

A broad range of tools are available for integrated water resource management (IWRM). In the EU research project NeWater, a hypothesis exists that IWRM cannot be realised unless current management regimes undergo a transition toward adaptive management (AM). This includes a structured process of learning, dealing with complexity, uncertainty etc. We assume that it is no longer enough for managers and tool researchers to understand the complexity and uncertainty of the outer natural system-the environment. It is just as important, to understand what goes on in the complex and uncertain participatory processes between the water managers, different stakeholders, authorities and researchers when a specific tool and process is used for environmental management. The paper revisits a case study carried out 2001-2004 where the tool Bayesian networks (BNs) was tested for groundwater management with full stakeholder involvement. With the participation of two researchers (the authors) and two water managers previously involved in the case study, a qualitative interview was prepared and carried out in June 2006. The aim of this ex-post evaluation was to capture and explore the water managers' experience with Bayesian belief networks when used for integrated and adaptive water management and provide a narrative approach for tool enhancement.     

Coat color polymorphism in populations of the northern mole vole in the Ural Region

Collections made in the course of long-term field studies on ecology of the northern mole vole Ellobius talpinus Pall. in the Ural Region and neighboring areas (more than 2000 individuals from 24 points of the species range) were used to analyze geographic variation in its coat color (color morphs). On the basis of long-term observations (1985–1999) on marked animals from a polymorphic population (Kurtamyshskii raion, Kurgan oblast), the life spans of males and females and the dependence of life span on population density and structure were estimated in animals of different color morphs. Each color morph of E. talpinus was shown to have specific features of the seasonal dynamics of age structure and migrations.     

Long term changes in atmospheric N and S throughfall deposition and effects on soil solution chemistry in a Scots pine forest in the Netherlands

In a Scots pine forest the throughfall deposition and the chemical composition of the soil solution was monitored since 1984. (Inter)national legislation measures led to a reduction of the deposition of nitrogen and sulphur. The deposition of sulphur has decreased by approximately 65%. The total mineral-nitrogen deposition has decreased by ca. 25%, which is mainly due to a reduction in ammonium-N deposition (−40%), since nitrate-N deposition has increased (+50%). The nitrogen concentration in the upper mineral soil solution at 10 cm depth has decreased, leading to an improved nutritional balance, which may result in improved tree vitality. In the drainage water at 90 cm depth the fluxes of NO₃⁻ and SO₄²⁻ have decreased, resulting in a reduced leeching of accompanying base cations, thus preserving nutrients in the ecosystem. It may take still several years, however, before this will meet the prerequisite of a sustainable ecosystem.     

Catalyst deterioration over the lifetime of small utility engines

In this paper, the deterioration of catalysts in small, four-stroke, spark-ignition engines is described. The laboratory testing performed followed a proven test method that mimics the lifetime of a small air-cooled utility engine operating under normal field conditions. The engines used were single-cylinder, 6.5-hp, side-valve engines. These engines have a nominal 125-hr lifetime. The effectiveness of the catalysts was determined by testing exhaust emissions before and after the catalyst to determine the catalyst's efficiency. This was done several times during the lifetime of the engines to determine the deterioration in the performance of the catalysts at lowering pollutant emissions. Additional testing was performed on the catalysts to determine wear patterns, contamination, and recoverable activity. The results indicate that considerable catalyst deterioration is occurring over the lifetime of the engine. The results reveal that soot buildup, poisons, and active surface loss appear to be the contributing factors to the deterioration. These results were determined after analyzing the exhaust emissions data, scanning electron microscope results analysis, and the impact of regeneration attempts. An ANOVA statistical analysis was performed, and it was determined that the emissions are also impacted, to some degree, by time and the engine itself.     

Carbon monoxide from composting due to thermal oxidation of biomass

Emissions of carbon monoxide (CO) were observed from decomposing organic wastes and litter under laboratory, pilot composting plant, and natural conditions. Field studies included air from inside a compost heap of about 200 m3, emissions from composting of livestock wastes at a biologically operating farm, and leaf litter pile air samples. The concentration of CO was up to 120 micromol mol(-1) in the compost piles of green waste, and up to 10 micromol mol(-1) in flux chambers above livestock waste windrow composts. The mean CO flux rates were approximately 20 mg CO m(-2) h(-1) for compost heaps of green waste, and varied from 30 to 100 mg CO m(-2) h(-1) for fresh dung windrows. Laboratory studies using a temperature and ventilation-controlled substrate container were performed to elucidate the origin of CO, and included hay samples of fixed moisture content at temperatures between 5 and 65 degrees C, including nonsterilized as well as sterilized samples. The concentration of CO was up to 160 micromol mol(-1) in these experiments, and Arrhenius-type plot analyses resulted in activation energies of 65 kJ mol(-1) for thermochemically produced CO from the nonsterilized compost substrate. Sterilized samples showed dramatically reduced CO2 but virtually unchanged CO emissions, albeit at a slightly lower activation energy, likely a result of the high-temperature sterilization. Though globally and regionally these CO emissions are only a minor source, thermochemically produced CO emissions might affect local air quality in and near composting facilities.     

Soil and vegetation carbon stocks in Brazilian Western Amazonia: relationships and ecological implications for natural landscapes

The relationships between soils attributes, soil carbon stocks and vegetation carbon stocks are poorly know in Amazonia, even at regional scale. In this paper, we used the large and reliable soil database from Western Amazonia obtained from the RADAMBRASIL project and recent estimates of vegetation biomass to investigate some environmental relationships, quantifying C stocks of intact ecosystem in Western Amazonia. The results allowed separating the western Amazonia into 6 sectors, called pedo-zones: Roraima, Rio Negro Basin, Tertiary Plateaux of the Amazon, Javari-Juruá-Purus lowland, Acre Basin and Rondonia uplands. The highest C stock for the whole soil is observed in the Acre and in the Rio Negro sectors. In the former, this is due to the high nutrient status and high clay activity, whereas in the latter, it is attributed to a downward carbon movement attributed to widespread podzolization and arenization, forming spodic horizons. The youthful nature of shallow soils of the Javari-Juruá-Purus lowlands, associated with high Al, results in a high phytomass C/soil C ratio. A similar trend was observed for the shallow soils from the Roraima and Rondonia highlands. A consistent east–west decline in biomass carbon in the Rio Negro Basin sector is associated with increasing rainfall and higher sand amounts. It is related to lesser C protection and greater C loss of sandy soils, subjected to active chemical leaching and widespread podzolization. Also, these soils possess lower cation exchangeable capacity and lower water retention capacity. Zones where deeply weathered Latosols dominate have a overall pattern of high C sequestration, and greater than the shallower soils from the upper Amazon, west of Madeira and Negro rivers. This was attributed to deeper incorporation of carbon in these clayey and highly pedo-bioturbated soils. The results highlight the urgent need for refining soil data at an appropriate scale for C stocks calculations purposes in Amazonia. There is a risk of misinterpreting C stocks in Amazonia when such great pedological variability is not taken into account.     

Canopy Spectra and Remote Sensing of Ashe Juniper and Associated Vegetation

A study was conducted in central Texas to determine the potential of using remote sensing technology to distinguish Ashe juniper (Juniperus ashei Buchholz) infestations on rangelands. Plant canopy reflectance measurements showed that Ashe juniper had lower near-infrared reflectance than other associated woody plant species and lower visible reflectance than mixed herbaceous species in spring and summer. Ashe juniper could be distinguished on color-infrared aerial photographs acquired in March, April, June, and August and on QuickBird false color satellite imagery obtained in June, where it had a distinct dark reddish-brown tonal response. Unsupervised classification techniques were used to classify aerial photographic and satellite imagery of study sites. An accuracy assessment performed on a computer classified map of a photographic image showed that Ashe juniper had producer's and user's accuracies of 100% and 92.9%, respectively, whereas an accuracy assessment performed on a classified map of a satellite image of the same site showed that Ashe juniper had producer's and user's accuracies of 94.1% and 88.1%, respectively. Accuracy assessments performed on classified maps of satellite images of two additional study sites showed that Ashe juniper had producer's and user's accuracies that ranged from 87.1% to 96.4%. These results indicate that both color-infrared photography and false color satellite imagery can be used successfully for distinguishing Ashe juniper infestations.