A hybrid method for inverse characterization of subsurface contaminant flux

The methods presented in this work provide a potential tool for characterizing contaminant source zones in terms of mass flux. The problem was conceptualized by considering contaminant transport through a vertical "flux plane" located between a source zone and a downgradient region where contaminant concentrations were measured. The goal was to develop a robust method capable of providing a statement of the magnitude and uncertainty associated with estimated contaminant mass flux values. In order to estimate the magnitude and transverse spatial distribution of mass flux through a plane, the problem was considered in an optimization framework. Two numerical optimization techniques were applied, simulated annealing (SA) and minimum relative entropy (MRE). The capabilities of the flux plane model and the numerical solution techniques were evaluated using data from a numerically generated test problem and a nonreactive tracer experiment performed in a three-dimensional aquifer model. Results demonstrate that SA is more robust and converges more quickly than MRE. However, SA is not capable of providing an estimate of the uncertainty associated with the simulated flux values. In contrast, MRE is not as robust as SA, but once in the neighborhood of the optimal solution, it is quite effective as a tool for inferring mass flux probability density functions, expected flux values, and confidence limits. A hybrid (SA-MRE) solution technique was developed in order to take advantage of the robust solution capabilities of SA and the uncertainty estimation capabilities of MRE. The coupled technique provided probability density functions and confidence intervals that would not have been available from an independent SA algorithm and they were obtained more efficiently than if provided by an independent MRE algorithm.     

Change in Fish Fauna as Indication of Aquatic Ecosystem Condition in Río Grande de Morelia–Lago de Cuitzeo Basin, Mexico

Chirostoma charari and C. compressum, and they are presumed extinct. Twelve (63%) of the remaining species had declines in distribution. Sixteen (80%) of the 20 localities sampled had lost species. The greatest declines occurred in Lago de Cuitzeo proper and in the lower portion of the Río Grande de Morelia watershed. Species losses from the lake were attributable to drying and hypereutrophication of the lake because of substantial reductions in the amount and quality of tributary inputs, whereas losses from the Río Grande de Morelia watershed were the result of pollution from agricultural, municipal, and industrial sources, especially in the region around the city of Morelia. Three localities in the upper portion of the Río Grande de Morelia watershed—Cointzio reservoir, La Mintzita spring, and Insurgente Morelos stream—contained most of the remaining fish species diversity in the basin and deserve additional protection. Fish faunal changes indicated major declines in the health of aquatic ecosystems in the Morelia–Cuitzeo basin.     

A multidecadal oscillation in precipitation and temperature series is pronounced in low flow series from Puget Sound streams

In Pacific Northwest streams, summer low flows limit water available to competing instream (salmon) and out-of-stream (human) uses, creating broad interest in how and why low flows are trending. Analyses that assumed linear (monotonic) change over the last ~60 years revealed declining low flow trends in minimally disturbed streams. Here, polynomials were used to model flow trends between 1929 and 2015. A multidecadal oscillation was observed in flows, which increased initially from the 1930s until the 1950s, declined until the 1990s, and then increased again. A similar oscillation was detected in precipitation series, and opposing oscillations in surface temperature, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation series. Multidecadal oscillations with similar periods to those described here are well known in climate indices. Fitted model terms were consistent with flow trends being influenced by at least two drivers, one oscillating and the other monotonic. Anthropogenic warming is a candidate driver for the monotonic decline, and variation in (internal) climatic circulation for the oscillating trend, but others were not ruled out. The recent upturn in streamflows suggests that anthropogenic warming has not been the dominant factor driving streamflow trends, at least until 2015. Climate projections based on simulations that omit drivers of multidecadal variation are likely to underestimate the range, and rate of change, of future climatic variation.     

Biological and environmental influences on the trophic ecology of leatherback turtles in the northwest Atlantic Ocean

Understanding the causes and consequences of variability in trophic status is important for interpreting population dynamics and for identifying important habitats for protected species like marine turtles. In the northwest Atlantic Ocean, many leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) from distinct breeding stocks throughout the Wider Caribbean region migrate to Canadian waters seasonally to feed, but their trophic status during the migratory and breeding cycle and its implications have not yet been described. In this study, we used stable carbon and nitrogen isotope analyses of bulk skin to characterize the trophic status of leatherbacks in Atlantic Canadian waters by identifying trophic patterns among turtles and the factors influencing those patterns. δ¹⁵N values of adult males and females were significantly higher than those of turtles of unknown gender (i.e., presumed to be subadults), and δ¹⁵N increased significantly with body size. We found no significant differences among average stable isotope values of turtles according to breeding stock origin. Significant inter-annual variation in δ¹⁵N among cohorts probably reflects broad-scale oceanographic variability that drives fluctuations in stable isotope values of nutrient sources transferred through several trophic positions to leatherbacks, variation in baseline isotope values among different overwintering habitats used by leatherbacks, or a combination of both. Our results demonstrate that understanding effects of demographic and physiological factors, as well as oceanographic conditions, on trophic status is key to explaining observed patterns in population dynamics and for identifying important habitats for widely distributed, long-lived species like leatherbacks.     

Proximity to competitors changes secondary metabolites of non-indigenous cup corals, Tubastraea spp., in the southwest Atlantic

Competition for space changes species’ distributions and community organization on tropical rocky shores, and the presence of secondary metabolites in the tissues of non-indigenous species may aid them in establishing and expanding their range through negative competitive interactions. The aim of this study was to describe the range of chemical substances produced by the non-indigenous cup corals Tubastraea coccinea and T. tagusensis and to test whether they varied in the field when the corals were placed in proximity to two local competitors. Cholest-5-en-3β-ol and 9-octadecanoic acid were two common secondary metabolites found in the tissues of Tubastraea. In the competition interaction experiment, necrosis was detected on the tissues of the coral Mussismilia hispida, and this species induced variation in sterol, alkaloid, and fatty acid production in Tubastraea tissues. In contrast, a sponge overgrew Tubastraea colonies. These results indicate that chemical defense may contribute to the ability of these non-indigenous corals to invade native communities.     

Fish population dynamics in a seasonally varying wetland

Small fishes in seasonally flooded environments such as the Everglades are capable of spreading into newly flooded areas and building up substantial biomass. Passive drift cannot account for the rapidity of observed population expansions. To test the ‘reaction-diffusion’ mechanism for spread of the fish, we estimated their diffusion coefficient and applied a reaction-diffusion model. This mechanism was also too weak to account for the spatial dynamics. Two other hypotheses were tested through modeling. The first—the ‘refuge mechanism’—hypothesizes that small remnant populations of small fishes survive the dry season in small permanent bodies of water (refugia), sites where the water level is otherwise below the surface. The second mechanism, which we call the ‘dynamic ideal free distribution mechanism’ is that consumption by the fish creates a prey density gradient and that fish taxis along this gradient can lead to rapid population expansion in space. We examined the two alternatives and concluded that although refugia may play an important role in recolonization by the fish population during reflooding, only the second, taxis in the direction of the flooding front, seems capable of matching empirical observations. This study has important implications for management of wetlands, as fish biomass is an essential support of higher trophic levels.     

The ability of a benthic elasmobranch to discriminate between biological and artificial electric fields

To investigate the ability of elasmobranchs to distinguish between differing prey-type electric fields we examined the electroreceptive foraging behaviour of a model species, Scyliorhinus canicula (small-spotted catshark). Catshark preferences were studied by behaviourally conditioning them to swim through narrow tunnels, and on exit presenting them simultaneously with two different electric fields. Their subsequent choices of the following paired options were recorded; (i) Two artificial electric fields (dipole electrodes) with different magnitude direct current (D.C.), (ii) Two artificial electric fields, one D.C. and the other alternating current (A.C.), of the same magnitude, and (iii) similar magnitude, natural and artificial D.C. electric fields associated with shore crabs and dipole electrodes respectively. We found a highly significant preference for the stronger D.C. electric field and a less pronounced, but still significant, preference for the A.C. electric field rather than the D.C. electric field. No preference was demonstrated between the artificial and natural D.C. electric fields. The findings are discussed in relation to the animal’s diet and ecology and with regard to anthropogenic sources of electric fields within their habitat.     

Evaluating the power of surface attendance counts to detect long-term trends in populations of crevice-nesting auklets

This study assessed metals in water and different tissues of Labeo rohita and the impact of these metals on DNA and proteins as biomarkers of gills and muscles of these fish from three different polluted sites (reference or low = KW, medium = CH and high = SK) of the Indus River, Pakistan. The Mn, Pb, Cu, Zn, Hg, and Cr levels in water, gills, liver, muscles, and skin of these fish were compared with the international permissible levels. All metals except Pb and Hg in water were within the acceptable limits of drinking water. In contrast, the Mn, Hg, and Cr levels in the fish tissues were higher than their permissible limits for fish as a human food. Here, the gills contained higher metals than the other tissues. Different patterns of biomarkers were found in fish from these sites. While the gills did not show four protein bands (55, 30, 18.4, and 16.4 kDa), the muscles showed four new protein bands (100, 85, 45, and 20 kDa) for fish from the medium and high polluted sites as compared to the reference or low polluted site. The fish from the CH and SK sites of the Indus River contained low molecular weight DNA in their gills but high molecular weight DNA in their muscles when compared with the KW site. This study suggests that the proteins and DNA profiles of L. rohita could be used as biomarkers to assess the impact of potential environmental stressors such as metals on the freshwater systems.     

Temporal limits to simulating the future spread pattern of invasive species: Buddleja davidii in Europe and New Zealand

The spread of invasive species is a major ecological and economic problem. Dynamic spread modelling is a potentially valuable tool to assist regional and central government authorities to monitor and control invasive species. To date a lack of suitable data has meant that most broad scale dispersal models have not been validated with independent datasets, and so their predictive ability and reliability has remained unscrutinised. A dynamic, stochastic dispersal model of the widely invasive plant Buddleja davidii was calibrated on European spread data and then used to project the temporal progression of B. davidii's distribution in New Zealand, starting from several different historical distributions. To assess the model's performance, we constructed an occupancy map based on the average number of simulation realisations that have a population present. The application of Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves to occupancy maps is introduced, but with specificity substituted by the proportion of available area used in a realisation. A derivative measure, the partial area under these curves when assessed through time (pAUC), is introduced and used to assess overall performance of the spread model. The model was able to attain a high level of model sensitivity, encompassing all of the known locations within the occupancy envelope. However, attempting to simulate the spread of this invasive species beyond a decade had very low model specificity. This is due to several factors, including the exponential process of spread (the further a population spreads the more sites exist from which it can spread stochastically), and the Markovian chain property of the stochastic system whereby differences between realisations compound through time. These features are seen in many reports of spread models, without being explicitly acknowledged. Our measure of pAUC through time allows a model's temporal performance and its specificity to be simultaneously assessed. While the rapid deterioration in model performance limits the utility of this type of modelling for forecasting long-term broad-scale strategic management of biological invasions, it does not necessarily limit its attractiveness for informing smaller scale and shorter term invasion management activities such as surveillance, containment and local eradication.