Approaches to Evaluating Climate Change Impacts on Species: A Guide to Initiating the Adaptation Planning Process

Assessing the impact of climate change on species and associated management objectives is a critical initial step for engaging in the adaptation planning process. Multiple approaches are available. While all possess limitations to their application associated with the uncertainties inherent in the data and models that inform their results, conducting and incorporating impact assessments into the adaptation planning process at least provides some basis for making resource management decisions that are becoming inevitable in the face of rapidly changing climate. Here we provide a non-exhaustive review of long-standing (e.g., species distribution models) and newly developed (e.g., vulnerability indices) methods used to anticipate the response to climate change of individual species as a guide for managers grappling with how to begin the climate change adaptation process. We address the limitations (e.g., uncertainties in climate change projections) associated with these methods, and other considerations for matching appropriate assessment approaches with the management questions and goals. Thorough consideration of the objectives, scope, scale, time frame and available resources for a climate impact assessment allows for informed method selection. With many data sets and tools available on-line, the capacity to undertake and/or benefit from existing species impact assessments is accessible to those engaged in resource management. With some understanding of potential impacts, even if limited, adaptation planning begins to move toward the development of management strategies and targeted actions that may help to sustain functioning ecosystems and their associated services into the future.     

Estimating influence of stocking regimes on livestock grazing distributions

Livestock often concentrate grazing in particular regions of landscapes while partly or wholly avoiding other regions. Dispersing livestock from the heavily grazed regions is a central challenge in grazing land management. Position data gathered from GPS-collared livestock hold potential for increasing knowledge of factors driving livestock aggregation patterns, but advances in gathering the data have outpaced advancements in analyzing and learning from it. We fit a hierarchical seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) model to explore how season of stocking and the location where cattle entered a pasture influenced grazing distributions. Stocking alternated between summer on one side of the pasture one year and fall on another side of the pasture the next year for 18 years. Waypoints were recorded on cattle for 50 d each year. We focused our analysis on the pasture's 10 most heavily grazed 4-ha units, because these units were the most prone to negative grazing impacts. Though grazing of the study units was always disproportionately heavy, it was much heavier with the summer than fall stocking regime: Bayesian confidence intervals indicate summer grazing of study units was approximately double the average fall grazing value. This is our core result, and it illustrates the strong effect stocking season or date or both can have on grazing distributions. We fit three additional models to explore the relative importance of stocking season versus location. According to this analysis, stocking season played a role, but stocking location was the main driver. Ostensibly minor factors (e.g. stocking location) can greatly influence livestock distributions.     

Benefits of Bt cotton counterbalanced by secondary pests? Perceptions of ecological change in China

In the past, scientific research has predicted a decrease in the effectiveness of Bt cotton due to the rise of secondary and other sucking pests. It is suspected that once the primary pest is brought under control, secondary pests have a chance to emerge due to the lower pesticide applications in Bt cotton cultivars. Studies on this phenomenon are scarce. This article furnishes empirical evidence that farmers in China perceive a substantial increase in secondary pests after the introduction of Bt cotton. The research is based on a survey of 1,000 randomly selected farm households in five provinces in China. We found that the reduction in pesticide use in Bt cotton cultivars is significantly lower than that reported in research elsewhere. This is consistent with the hypothesis suggested by recent studies that more pesticide sprayings are needed over time to control emerging secondary pests, such as aphids, spider mites, and lygus bugs. Apart from farmers?? perceptions of secondary pests, we also assessed their basic knowledge of Bt cotton and their perceptions of Bt cotton in terms of its strengths and shortcomings (e.g., effectiveness, productivity, price, and pesticide use) in comparison with non-transgenic cotton.     

The impact of the BP Baker report

Introduction

This study examined the impact of the British Petroleum (BP) Baker Panel Report, reviewing the March 2005 BP-Texas City explosion, on the field of process safety.

Method

Three hundred eighty-four subscribers of a process safety listserv responded to a survey two years after the BP Baker Report was published.

Results

Results revealed respondents in the field of process safety are familiar with the BP Baker Report, feel it is important to the future safety of chemical processing, and believe that the findings are generalizable to other plants beyond BP-Texas City. Respondents indicated that few organizations have administered the publicly available BP Process Safety Culture Survey. Our results also showed that perceptions of contractors varied depending on whether respondents were part of processing organizations (internal perspective) or government or consulting agencies (external perspective).

Conclusions

This research provides some insight into the beliefs of chemical processing personnel regarding the transportability and generalizability of lessons learned from one organization to another.

Impact on Industry

This study has implications for both organizational scientists and engineers in that it reveals perceptions about the primary mechanism used to share lessons learned within one industry about one major catastrophe (i.e., investigation reports). This study provides preliminary information about the perceived impact of a report such as this one.     

Prenatal diagnosis of bilateral anophthalmia: Identifying de novo SOX2 variant

A 26 year old nulligravida presented at 24 weeks gestation for the second opinion of abnormal fetal profile and mid-face views on ultrasound at another institution. A detailed fetal anatomic ultrasound at our facility revealed the absence of fetal lens and globes bilaterally consistent with bilateral anophthalmia (HP: 0000528) without other anomalies. Karyotype and chromosomal microarray analysis were completed from amniocentesis sample. After these results, duo exome testing with paternal sequencing was completed from proband amniotic fluid sample and parental blood samples. A pathogenic variant in SOX2 (NM_003106.3: c.513C>G p.(Tyr171*Ter)) with heterozygous autosomal dominant inheritance resulted. On duo exome testing with paternal segregation analysis, the variant was found to be consistent with likely sporadic de novo inheritance. The SOX2 variant reported is consistent with the fetal phenotype in this case. While germline mosaicism could exist, this identified variant provided the family with a likely explanation for this proband's finding. This ultrasound and genetic testing allowed the family to make decisions related to planning in current and future pregnancies.     

Survival and Inactivation by Advanced Oxidative Process of Foodborne Viruses in Model Low-Moisture Foods

Enteric viruses, such as human norovirus (NoV) and hepatitis A virus (HAV), are the major causes of foodborne illnesses worldwide. These viruses have low infectious dose, and may remain infectious for weeks in the environment and food. Limited information is available regarding viral survival and transmission in low-moisture foods (LMF). LMFs are generally considered as ready-to-eat products, which undergo no or minimal pathogen reduction steps. However, numerous foodborne viral outbreaks associated with LMFs have been reported in recent years. The objective of this study was to examine the survival of foodborne viruses in LMFs during 4-week storage at ambient temperature and to evaluate the efficacy of advanced oxidative process (AOP) treatment in the inactivation of these viruses. For this purpose, select LMFs such as pistachios, chocolate, and cereal were inoculated with HAV and the norovirus surrogates, murine norovirus (MNV) and feline calicivirus (FCV), then viral survival on these food matrices was measured over a four-week incubation at ambient temperature, by both plaque assay and droplet-digital RT-PCR (ddRT-PCR) using the modified ISO-15216 method as well as the magnetic bead assay for viral recovery. We observed an approximately 0.5 log reduction in viral genome copies, and 1 log reduction in viral infectivity for all three tested viruses following storage of select inoculated LMFs for 4 weeks. Therefore, the present study shows that the examined foodborne viruses can persist for a long time in LMFs. Next, we examined the inactivation efficacy of AOP treatment, which combines UV-C, ozone, and hydrogen peroxide vapor, and observed that while approximately 100% (4 log) inactivation can be achieved for FCV, and MNV in chocolate, the inactivation efficiency diminishes to approximately 90% (1 log) in pistachios and 70% (< 1 log) in cereal. AOP treatment could therefore be a good candidate for risk reduction of foodborne viruses from certain LMFs depending on the food matrix and surface of treatment.

     

Behavior of potentially toxic elements from stoker-boiler fly ash in Interior Alaska: paired batch leaching and solid-phase characterization

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Despite significant investigation of fly ash spills and mineralogical controls on the release of potentially toxic elements (PTEs) from fly ash,...     

Are rivers just big streams? A pulse method to quantify nitrogen demand in a large river

Given recent focus on large rivers as conduits for excess nutrients to coastal zones, their role in processing and retaining nutrients has been overlooked and understudied. Empirical measurements of nutrient uptake in large rivers are lacking, despite a substantial body of knowledge on nutrient transport and removal in smaller streams. Researchers interested in nutrient transport by rivers (discharge >10000 L/s) are left to extrapolate riverine nutrient demand using a modeling framework or a mass balance approach. To begin to fill this knowledge gap, we present data using a pulse method to measure inorganic nitrogen. (N) transport and removal in the Upper Snake River, Wyoming, USA (seventh order, discharge 12000 L/s). We found that the Upper Snake had surprisingly high biotic demand relative to smaller streams in the same river network for both ammonium (NH4+) and nitrate (NO3-). Placed in the context of a meta-analysis of previously published nutrient uptake studies, these data suggest that large rivers may have similar biotic demand for N as smaller tributaries. We also found that demand for different forms of inorganic N (NH4+ vs. NO3-) scaled differently with stream size. Data from rivers like the Upper Snake and larger are essential for effective water quality management at the scale of river networks. Empirical measurements of solute dynamics in large rivers are needed to understand the role of whole river networks (as opposed to stream reaches) in patterns of nutrient export at regional and continental scales.     

The effects of young brood on the foraging behavior of two strains of honey bees (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Apis mellifera</Emphasis>)

Honey bee foragers specialize on collecting pollen and nectar. Pollen foraging behavior is modulated by at least two stimuli within the nest: the presence of brood pheromone and young larvae and the quantity of stored pollen. Genetic variation in pollen foraging behavior has been demonstrated repeatedly. We used selected high and low pollen-hoarding strains of bees that differ dramatically in the quantity of pollen collected to determine if the observed differences in foraging could be explained by differential responses to brood stimuli. Workers from the high and low pollen-hoarding strains and wild-type bees were co-fostered in colonies with either brood or no brood. As expected based on previous studies, returning high pollen-hoarding foragers collected heavier pollen loads and lighter nectar loads than low pollen-hoarding bees. Effects of brood treatment were also observed; bees exposed to brood collected heavier pollen loads and initiated foraging earlier than those from broodless colonies. More specifically, brood treatment resulted in increased pollen foraging in high pollen-hoarding bees but did not affect pollen foraging in low pollen-hoarding bees, suggesting that high pollen-hoarding bees are more sensitive to the presence of brood. However, response to brood stimuli does not sufficiently explain the differences in foraging behavior between the strains since these differences persisted even in the absence of brood.