Climate impact on social systems: the risk assessment approach

A novel approach to the problem of estimating climate impact on social systems is suggested. This approach is based on a risk concept, where the notion of critical events is introduced and the probability of such events is estimated. The estimation considers both the inherent stochasticity of climatic processes and the artificial stochasticity of climate predictions due to scientific uncertainties. The method is worked out in some detail for the regional problem of crop production and the risks associated with global climate change, and illustrated by a case study (Kursk region of the FSU). In order to get local climatic characteristics (weather), a so-called statistical weather generator is used. One interesting finding is that the 3% risk level remains constant up to 1.0–1.1°C rise of mean seasonal temperature, if the variance does not change. On the other hand, the risk grows rapidly with increasing variance (even if the mean temperature rises very slowly). The risk approach is able to separate two problems: (i) assessment of global change impact, and (ii) decision making. The main task for the scientific community is to provide the politicians with different options; the choice of admissible (from the social point of view) critical events and the corresponding risk levels is the business of decision makers.     

Hydropower production and river rehabilitation: A case study on an alpine river

Despite the numerous benefits of hydropower production, this renewable energy source can have serious negative consequences on the environment. For example, dams act as barriers for the longitudinal migration of organisms and transport of particulate matter. Accelerated siltation processes in the receiving river reduce the vertical connectivity between river and groundwater. Hydropeaks, caused by short-term changes in hydropower operation, result in a negative impact on both habitat and organisms, especially during winter months when natural discharge is low and almost constant. In this study, we report the current deficits present in the River Rhone from two different scientific perspectives – fish ecology and hydrology. Potential rehabilitation solutions in synergy with flood protection measures are discussed. We focus on the effects of hydropeaking in relation to longitudinal and vertical dimensions and discuss local river widening as a potential rehabilitation tool. The fish fauna in the Rhone is characterized by a highly unnatural structure (low diversity, impaired age distribution). A high correlation between fish biomass and monotonous morphology (poor cover availability) was established. Tracer hydrology provided further details about the reduced permeability of the riverbank, revealing a high degree of siltation with K values of about 4.7 × 10^?6 m s^?1. Improving the hydrologic situation is therefore essential for the successful rehabilitation of the Rhone River. To this end, hydropeaks in the river reaches must be attenuated. This can be realized by a combination of different hard technical and soft operational measures such as retention reservoirs or slower up and down ramping of turbines.     

Indicators of ecosystem health at the species level and the example of selenium effects on fish

Chemical monitoring of aquatic ecosystems describes the chemical exposures of aquatic biota and measures the success of pollution control. However, meeting water quality criteria cannot assure that aquatic biota are protected from the effects of unexpected chemicals, mixtures and interactions between toxicity and environmental stressors.Biological monitoring is an obvious solution since aquatic biota integrate spatial and temporal variations in exposure to many simultaneous stressors. Top predators, typical of specific ecosystems (e.g. lake trout in cold water oligotrophic lakes) indicate whether environmental criteria have been met. The presence of naturally reproducing, self-sustaining and productive stocks of edible fish demonstrates a high quality environment. If these conditions are not met, there is a clear sign of environmental degradation. Specific changes in population structure and performance may also diagnose which life stage is affected and the nature of the stressor.Unfortunately, environmental managers cannot rely solely on populations, communities or ecosystems to indicate chmical effects. The lag between identifying a problem and finding a cause may destroy the resource that we wish to protect, particularly where chemicals are persistent.A solution to this dilemma is the measurement of primary or secondary responses of individual organisms to chemical exposure. Since toxicity at any level of organization must start with a reaction between a chemical and a biological substrate, these responses are the most sensitive and earliest sign of chemical exposure and effect.Application of this idea requires research on molecular mechanisms of chemical toxicity in aquatic biota and adaptation of existing mammalian diagnostic tools. Since relevance of biochemical responses to populations and ecosystems is not obvious, there is a need to study the links between chemical exposure and responses of individuals, populations and ecosystems.The recognition of chemical problems and cause-effect relationships requires the integration of chemical and biological monitoring, using the principles of epidemiology to test the strength of relationships and to identify specific research needs. The contamination of a reservoir with selenium and impacts on fish populations provide an excellent example of this approach.     

A new device for measuring fluctuations in plant stem diameter: Implications for monitoring plant responses

An electrical device capable of continuously measuring micronsized changes in stem diameter of woody and herbaceous plants is described. Fumigation of sunflowers with automotive exhaust was used to test the ability of the device to detect short-term plant responses.     

Efficient search procedures for extreme pollutant values

Extreme pollutant values are of great interest in water quality monitoring because of their frequent toxicological significance. The principal barrier to the detection of these values, however, is the cost of extensive and comprehensive monitoring. This paper demonstrates an efficient method to determine the maximum sample measurement from a finite set of sequential samples without explicitly testing them all. It is assumed that the process of sample measurement is distinct from collection and has higher costs. It is further assumed that the measurements have high positive autocorrelation.A methodology is presented based on a common industrial testing procedure referred to as composite sampling—the physical pooling or compositing of a set of sequential samples before measurement. A method known as primary first order compositing (PFOC) was found to be superior to the traditional technique of random sampling, particularly if small composite sizes are utilized.The authors are, respectively, operations research analyst, Vancouver, B. C.; Associate Professor and Chairman, Policy Analysis Division, Faculty of Commerce and Business Administration, University of British Columbia; and Associate Professor, Management Science Division, Faculty of Commerce, U.B.C.     

Further studies using X-ray fluorescence to sample lead contaminated carpeted surfaces

The sampling of carpeted surfaces to test for lead contamination primarily focuses upon vacuum techniques. Vacuum sampling techniques, however, require time-consuming, expensive laboratory analysis of the dusts obtained and are unable to determine total lead load on the carpet. X-ray fluorescence (XRF) analysis is an on-site, inexpensive, non-destructive, quick technique for predicting metals levels in a variety of media, such as water, soil, filter paper and painted surfaces. A 1992 study of the feasibility of XRF to analyze for lead and soil loadings on carpeted surfaces indicated that XRF can detect lead at a low enough level to warrant further study. This paper expands this earlier study and developes lead and soil loading calibration curves for three different carpet types based upon XRF lead L-beta peak areas and XRF iron and barium K-alpha peak and background areas. Results indicate that variation in the data can be reduced through modifications of the XRF analysis technique, thus reducing the statistically determined detection level, and that carpet type does affect the calibration. Detection levels of approximately 70 mg/m² for lead and 5 g/m² for soil were obtained. Overall, good agreement was found between results of this study and the earlier one. XRF shows excellent potential for quantitative analysis of lead on carpeted surfaces.     

Application of a checklist for quality assistance in environmental modelling to an energy model

Large, complex energy models present considerable challenges to develop and test. Uncertainty assessments of such models provide only partial guidance on the quality of the results. We have developed a model quality assistance checklist to aid in this purpose. The model checklist provides diagnostic output in the form of a set of pitfalls for the model application. The checklist is applied here to an energy model for the problem of assessing energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. Use of the checklist suggests that results on this issue are contingent on a number of assumptions that are highly value-laden. When these assumptions are held fixed, the model is deemed capable of producing moderately robust results of relevance to climate policy over the longer term. Checklist responses also indicate that a number of details critical to policy choices or outcomes on this issue are not captured in the model, and model results should therefore be supplemented with alternative analyses.     

Determining Ecoregions for Environmental and GMO Monitoring Networks

A representative environmental monitoring network at the regional scale cannot use raster-based or random sampling designs, but requires a stratified sampling procedure integrating different information layers, and it has to occur in ecologically differing homogeneous regions (ecoregions). These we have determined using a set of spatial strata with ecological variables which we analysed with classification and regression trees (CART). We present a framework for environmental monitoring, that covers different scales, and we transfer the framework to a potential GMO (genetically modified organisms) monitoring network. We use ecoregion and other environmental strata together with existing environmental monitoring networks to determine GMO monitoring sites more precisely.     

The Impact of Landsat Satellite Monitoring on Conservation Biology

Landsat 7s recent malfunctioning will result in significant gaps in long-term satellite monitoring of Earth, affecting not only the research of the Earth science community but also conservation users of these data. To determine whether or how important Landsat monitoring is for conservation and natural resource management, we reviewed the Landsat programs history with special emphasis on the development of user groups. We also conducted a bibliographic search to determine the extent to which conservation research has been based on Landsat data. Conservation biologists were not an early user group of Landsat data because a) biologists lacked technical capacity – computers and software – to analyze these data; b) Landsats 1980s commercialization rendered images too costly for biologists budgets; and c) the broad-scale disciplines of conservation biology and landscape ecology did not develop until the mid-to-late 1980s. All these conditions had changed by the 1990s and Landsat imagery became an important tool for conservation biology. Satellite monitoring and Landsat continuity are mandated by the Land Remote Sensing Act of 1992. This legislation leaves open commercial options. However, past experiments with commercial operations were neither viable nor economical, and severely reduced the quality of monitoring, archiving and data access for academia and the public. Future satellite monitoring programs are essential for conservation and natural resource management, must provide continuity with Landsat, and should be government operated.     

A principle of natural self-organization

The Science of Nature - This paper is the first part of a trilogy, which comprises a detailed study of a special type of functional organization and demonstrates its relevance with respect to the...