Baselines for land-use change in the tropics: application to avoided deforestation projects

Although forest conservation activities, particularly in the tropics, offer significant potential for mitigating carbon (C) emissions, these types of activities have faced obstacles in the policy arena caused by the difficulty in determining key elements of the project cycle, particularly the baseline. A baseline for forest conservation has two main components: the projected land-use change and the corresponding carbon stocks in applicable pools in vegetation and soil, with land-use change being the most difficult to address analytically. In this paper we focus on developing and comparing three models, ranging from relatively simple extrapolations of past trends in land use based on simple drivers such as population growth to more complex extrapolations of past trends using spatially explicit models of land-use change driven by biophysical and socioeconomic factors. The three models used for making baseline projections of tropical deforestation at the regional scale are: the Forest Area Change (FAC) model, the Land Use and Carbon Sequestration (LUCS) model, and the Geographical Modeling (GEOMOD) model. The models were used to project deforestation in six tropical regions that featured different ecological and socioeconomic conditions, population dynamics, and uses of the land: (1) northern Belize; (2) Santa Cruz State, Bolivia; (3) Paraná State, Brazil; (4) Campeche, Mexico; (5) Chiapas, Mexico; and (6) Michoacán, Mexico. A comparison of all model outputs across all six regions shows that each model produced quite different deforestation baselines. In general, the simplest FAC model, applied at the national administrative-unit scale, projected the highest amount of forest loss (four out of six regions) and the LUCS model the least amount of loss (four out of five regions). Based on simulations of GEOMOD, we found that readily observable physical and biological factors as well as distance to areas of past disturbance were each about twice as important as either sociological/demographic or economic/infrastructure factors (less observable) in explaining empirical land-use patterns. We propose from the lessons learned, a methodology comprised of three main steps and six tasks can be used to begin developing credible baselines. We also propose that the baselines be projected over a 10-year period because, although projections beyond 10 years are feasible, they are likely to be unrealistic for policy purposes. In the first step, an historic land-use change and deforestation estimate is made by determining the analytic domain (size of the region relative to the size of proposed project), obtaining historic data, analyzing candidate baseline drivers, and identifying three to four major drivers. In the second step, a baseline of where deforestation is likely to occur–a potential land-use change (PLUC) map—is produced using a spatial model such as GEOMOD that uses the key drivers from step one. Then rates of deforestation are projected over a 10-year baseline period based on one of the three models. Using the PLUC maps, projected rates of deforestation, and carbon stock estimates, baseline projections are developed that can be used for project GHG accounting and crediting purposes: The final step proposes that, at agreed interval (e.g., about 10 years), the baseline assumptions about baseline drivers be re-assessed. This step reviews the viability of the 10-year baseline in light of changes in one or more key baseline drivers (e.g., new roads, new communities, new protected area, etc.). The potential land-use change map and estimates of rates of deforestation could be re-done at the agreed interval, allowing the deforestation rates and changes in spatial drivers to be incorporated into a defense of the existing baseline, or the derivation of a new baseline projection.     

Equity rules for burden sharing in the mitigation process of climate change

Although international negotiation on the mitigation of climate change is a process of determining burden-sharing rules between countries, there has been no clear agreement on equity principles for burden sharing. During the negotiating process up to the Kyoto Protocol, various proposals were made on such burden-sharing rules, but an agreement on emission targets for Annex I countries was achieved without explicitly agree-ing to any rules. In the next phase of the negotiation, debates on emission targets are likely to shift from those between developed countries to those between all parties to the convention. In such a phase, debates on burden-sharing rules will be revisited. The purpose of this paper is: (1) to determine implicitly a formula for the rule for burden sharing between Annex I countries that was considered to be underlying the emission targets of the Kyoto Protocol, and (2) to examine plausible emission targets and timing of commitments for non-Annex I countries in the future by using the result of the analysis on the Kyoto Protocol. A multi-regression method is used for this purpose. It was concluded that the burden sharing between Annex I countries in the Kyoto Protocol can mostly be explained by three variables: the increase in the rate of CO₂ emission during the years 1990 to 2010, the increase in the rate of afforestation between 1990 and 1995, and the GDP per capita at the time of negotiation. The timing of future commitments of developing countries and the levels of targets differ widely, depending on which index or formula is agreed as “equitable”. Some of the developing countries would have to start limiting their emissions within several years if GDP per capita or CO₂ per capita were chosen as the burden-sharing indicator. Developing countries would not have to make commitments until the mid-late 21st century if population growth rate were chosen. If the inferred formula of the Kyoto Protocol were applied to developing countries, they would have had to start mild limitation from 1990.     

关于不同森林群落物种多样性比较的问题讨论

对一篇论文中不同森林群落物种多样性的比较研究的方法和结论作了一些讨论 ,供读者参考 .参 2     

伊春河河水水溶性腐殖酸内源释放模型

以水溶性腐殖酸含量很高的伊春河为例，利用冬季冰封无外源输入的条件，在有产室内模拟研究的基础上，通过现场采样及测定，建立了伊春河河水水溶性腐殖酸的内源释放模型，根据同期采集样品进行的验证表明，该模型能够准确地反映河流沉积物中水溶性瘁殖酸向河水中释放的速率以及速率与流速等条件的定量关系。     

影响微生物絮凝剂生成的条件研究

从污水中筛选到了一株絮凝活性较好的絮凝剂产生菌 ,分别研究了碳源、氮源、供氧量、培养温度等条件对其产絮凝剂的影响。结果表明 ,葡萄糖、淀粉是较好的碳源 ,蛋白胨等有机氮作氮源较好 ,供氧量较大有利于产絮凝剂 ,最适宜培养温度为 30℃ ,最佳pH为 6 .5～ 7.5。     

Evaluation of British Columbia Ministry of Forests aboriginal rights and title-consultation guidelines — the Ditidaht case study

The British Columbia Ministry of Forests’ “Aboriginal Rights and Title — Consultation Guidelines”, prepared in response to a Supreme Court of Canada decision on aboriginal rights and title, presents an interesting example of how common law influences provincial environmental policy. The policy addresses the British Columbia government’s fiduciary duty to First Nations and requires staff to consult with aboriginals during operational forestry planning. Adequate understanding of the policy is essential for lawful forest management. The Consultation Guidelines have become a key environmental policy in British Columbia.This evaluation will increase understanding of the Consultation Guidelines and aboriginal title for forest practitioners and policy makers. Within the context of a Vancouver Island case study, the policy is analyzed in view of the following criteria: effectiveness, efficiency, equity, and effort. Even though the policy is over 2 years old and the government is actively managing forests in an area under negotiation for treaty, the policy has yet to be implemented. As a result, aboriginal concerns about the long-term environmental and economic sustainability of current forest practices go unheeded. This situation potentially jeopardizes the government’s ability to address its fiduciary responsibilities to aboriginals, as defined in case law and the Canadian Constitution.     

The use of ultraviolet germicidal irradiation (UVGI) in disinfection of airborne bacteria

Contamination of indoor air by microbial pollutants has been increasingly recognized as a public health problem, and may be responsible for building-related illness (BRI) and sick-building syndrome (SBS). Bioaerosols such as fungi, bacteria, and viruses in indoor air can cause allergic and irritant responses, infectious diseases, respiratory problems, and hypersensitivity reactions. People sensitive to indoor environmental problems complain of a wide variety of symptoms ranging from headache, fatigue, nausea, sinus congestion, to eye, nose, and throat irritations.Although ultraviolet germicidal irradiation (UVGI) with a predominant wavelength of 254 nm has been used for air disinfection for many years to minimize microbial numbers in the air, few quantitative data are available on the radiation susceptibilities of individual airborne microbes. There have been a number of UVGI studies documenting the effectiveness of UVGI for the control of microbes in controlled settings. Many of these studies documented the effectiveness of UVGI against airborne tuberculosis organisms.The studies described here used commercial type fan-powered shielded UVGI-containing fixtures to evaluate their effectiveness in air disinfection. Aerosolization tests were done in the contained environment of a negative pressure bioaerosol stainless steel testing chamber 0.75 m wide·3.7 m long. The chamber was designed so that microbes could be safely aerosolized and contained while traversing the chamber through the UVGI-containing fix-tures. Four commercial (Purair UV Germicidal Systems, Mount Vernon, N.Y.) fan-powered UVGI-containing fix-tures placed in the chamber were individually evaluated for their ability to disinfect individual bioaerosols of air-borne bacteria.Air samples were taken at the inlet and outlet of the UVGI-containing units positioned in the bioaerosol chamber, using Ace Glass all-glass impingers (AGI-30). Five bacterial species were individually aerosolized to evaluate their kill. The bacteria used to test all of the UVGI-containing units were vegetative cells of Escherichia coli, Micrococcus luteus, Pseudomonas fluorescens, Staphylococcus aureus, and endospores of Bacillus subtilis. Based upon the concentration of bioaerosols collected at the inlet and outlet of the fixtures tested, the total overall microbial kills for the four fixtures with the filters in place and the UVGI units on were more than 99% for all the airborne vegetative bacteria tested, and a mean of over 75% for the B. subtilis endospores.All of the fixtures were efficient in the kill of the test vegetative bacteria used, even the more UVGI-resistant M. luteus vegetative cells and endospores of B. subtilis. Units such as these may provide an economical way to supplement existing air cleaning procedures used in indoor environments, and to kill airborne bacteria effectively without human exposure to UV light.     

Mathematical model for the microbial metabolism of glucose induced enhanced biological phosphorus removal in an anaerobic/aerobic sequential batch reactor

Glucose plays a significant role in enhanced biological phosphorus removal (EBPR). Previous experimental studies have shown that in addition to acetate, glucose can induce and maintain a successful EBPR performance under certain operating procedures. Mathematical modeling of the EBPR metabolism is an important consideration that is necessary to produce a deeper insight into this process. In this study, four anaerobic reactions plus four aerobic reactions with fourteen kinetic constants are structured to describe the dynamic behavior of the key metabolic components in the glucose induced EBPR system. The development of the stoichiometric coefficients for the reactions is based on fundamental biochemical principles. The model describes the dynamics of the important storage compounds, which are considered separately from the active biomass. Sequential batch experiments were performed to find the optimum model parameters using sludges exhibiting stable EBPR from glucose fed system. The maximum specific substrate conversion rate in the glucose model is composed of two factors: the maximum specific rates of glucose direct conversion to PHV (q _gv ^max ) and glucose conversion to glycogen q _gl ^max , which are 14.1 and 699.7 C-mmol/C-mmol·h, respectively. The maximum specific rate of polyphosphate synthesis k _pp ^max is 0.2 P-mmol/C-mmol·h. The model with the best-fit parameters satisfactorily simulates the dynamic behavior of the key components during both anaerobic and aerobic conditions.     

改性ACF－PAN吸附SO_2前后表面结构变化及机机理究

以自制ＰＡＮ－基聚丙烯腈活性碳纤维ＡＣＦ－ＰＡＮ（ＡＣＦ－活性碳纤维、ＰＡＮ－聚丙烯腈）和改性处理的ＡＣＦ－ＰＡＮ吸附ＳＯ_２，借助ＩＲ、ｘ－光电子能谱分析等研究ＡＣＦ－ＰＡＮ改性处理及吸附ＳＯ_２前后表面结构变化。结果表明：各型ＡＣＦ－ＰＡＮ吸附ＳＯ_２的活性中心为表面结构中的含氮官能团以及引入的金属氧化物，其吸附机理是活性氮催化或电子传递。     

粤东一个类型独特的锡矿床

作者对西岭凤地山锡矿床的成矿地质条件,特别是火山构造、岩浆演化与成矿的关系进行了研究,认为:西岭锡矿是一个与火山侵出相碎斑熔岩时、空、成因关系密切的次火山热液脉状锡矿床。根据西岭锡矿的地质环境和成矿物理化学条件、矿质、水介质来源建立了理想的成矿模式。进而指出粤东斑岩锡矿的远景。西岭锡矿类型的确定,对粤东和赣南火山岩地区锡矿普查具有重要意义。