Eliciting expert knowledge in conservation science

Expert knowledge is used widely in the science and practice of conservation because of the complexity of problems, relative lack of data, and the imminent nature of many conservation decisions. Expert knowledge is substantive information on a particular topic that is not widely known by others. An expert is someone who holds this knowledge and who is often deferred to in its interpretation. We refer to predictions by experts of what may happen in a particular context as expert judgments. In general, an expert-elicitation approach consists of five steps: deciding how information will be used, determining what to elicit, designing the elicitation process, performing the elicitation, and translating the elicited information into quantitative statements that can be used in a model or directly to make decisions. This last step is known as encoding. Some of the considerations in eliciting expert knowledge include determining how to work with multiple experts and how to combine multiple judgments, minimizing bias in the elicited information, and verifying the accuracy of expert information. We highlight structured elicitation techniques that, if adopted, will improve the accuracy and information content of expert judgment and ensure uncertainty is captured accurately. We suggest four aspects of an expert elicitation exercise be examined to determine its comprehensiveness and effectiveness: study design and context, elicitation design, elicitation method, and elicitation output. Just as the reliability of empirical data depends on the rigor with which it was acquired so too does that of expert knowledge.     

Re-use of remediated soils for the bioremediation of waste oil sludge

We investigated the possibility of re-using remediated soils for new bioremediation projects by spiking these soils with waste oil sludge in laboratory based microcosms. The level of Total Petroleum Hydrocarbon (TPH) reduction was high (>80%) in naturally attenuated microcosms and was not significantly improved by biostimulation, bioaugmentation and the combined treatment of bioaugmentation and biostimulation by week 12. This indicated that the observed TPH reduction might have been related to the soil's inherent hydrocarbon-degrading potential. Microbial community analysis (16S rDNA and ITS-based Denaturing Gradient Gel Electrophoresis fingerprints) confirmed the dominance of hydrocarbon degrading genera such as Alcanivorax and Scedosporium. Cluster and Shannon diversity analysis revealed similar but stable bacterial and fungal communities in naturally attenuated and amended microcosms indicating that rapid reduction in TPH may not always be accompanied by changes in soil microbial communities. This study has therefore shown that soils previously used for bioremediation can have an improved hydrocarbon degrading potential which was successfully re-harnessed for new projects. This ability to re-harness this potential is attractive because it substantially reduces operational costs as no additional bioremediation treatments are needed. It can also extend a landfill's lifespan as soils can be re-used again before landfill disposal.     

Current and future solid waste management system in Northern Viet Nam with focus on Ha Noi: climate change effects and landfill management

The contribution investigates the solid waste management system in Ha Noi under consideration of the interrelation between climate change effects and landfill management by means of a cause-and-effect-analysis as well as water balances using the HELP 3.95 model and gas emission data, followed by a Strength, Weakness, Opportunities, Threats (SWOT) analysis. Even landfills are sources of methane (CH₄) emissions they are also impacted by climate change. The main effects on landfill sites are the change of climatic conditions, namely the regional water balance, extreme precipitation and storm events. The results of the water balance model results show that a geomembrane surface sealing can reduce the leachate formation significantly, a fact that is also valid for the climate change scenario with higher precipitation. The risk of flooding and erosion at the landfill sites increases, which will require a customized water management. In parallel landfill gas offers the opportunity for recovery of Greenhouse Gases (GHG) and the generation of renewable energy. Some further management options are wind turbines, photovoltaic systems or biomass for biogas conversion, which was grown on closed landfill sites. The inclusion of climate friendly management options of closed landfills in a “Good Landfill Aftercare Practice” is recommended.     

Does the Temporal Resolution of Precipitation Input Influence the Simulated Hydrological Components Employing the SWAT Model?

This study aimed to evaluate the influence of sub‐daily precipitation time steps on model performance and hydrological components by applying the Green and Ampt infiltration method using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Precipitation was measured at a resolution of 0.1 mm and aggregated to 5‐, 15‐, 30‐, and 60‐min time steps. Daily discharge data over a 10‐year period were used to calibrate and validate the model. Following a global sensitivity analysis, relevant parameters were optimized through an automatic calibration procedure using SWAT‐CUP for each time step. Daily performance statistics were almost equal among all four time steps (NSE ≈ 0.47). Discharge mainly consisted of groundwater flow (55%) and tile flow (42%), in reasonable proportions for the investigated catchment. In conclusion, model outputs were almost identical, showing simulations responded nearly independently of the chosen precipitation time step. This held true for (1) the selection of sensitive parameters, (2) performance statistics, (3) the shape of the hydrographs, and (4) flow components. However, a scenario analysis revealed that the precipitation time step becomes important when saturated hydraulic conductivities are low and curve numbers are high. The study suggests that there is no need in using precipitation time steps <1 h for lowland catchments dominated by soils with a low surface runoff potential if daily flow values are being considered. Editor's note : This paper is part of the featured series on SWAT Applications for Emerging Hydrologic and Water Quality Challenges. See the February 2017 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

Potentials and impacts of short-rotation coppice plantation with aspen in Eastern Germany under conditions of climate change

Woody biomass generated in short-rotation coppice (SRC) plantations with aspen (Populus tremula L.) has good properties for bioenergy crop production: annual yields are high, labour input per year is low, and it is ecologically valuable because of the multi-year rotation periods. Eastern Germany has a special advantage in producing bioenergy crops: the former “agricultural cooperatives” built up quite large farms with, compared to Western Germany, comparatively large fields. Therefore, a modelling study of the potential and the impacts of aspen SRC plantations in the five eastern federal states of Germany under the recent climate and future climate projections was conducted. The ecophysiological forest growth model 4C was used to simulate the growth of aspen SRC plantations and their impacts on carbon in soils, and groundwater recharge, on selected suitable areas currently under crops but with marginal site conditions for cropping. A clear signal to enhanced growth condition over the whole area can be seen in the simulation of the mean annual woody biomass yield under conditions of climate change, which increased from 7.47 t DW ha⁻¹ a⁻¹ under the recent climate to 9.26 t DW ha⁻¹ a⁻¹ at the end of the considered future period 2034–2055 under climate change. The mean soil carbon sequestration rate was 0.81 t C ha⁻¹ a⁻¹ under the recent climate and could rise up to 0.93 t C ha⁻¹ a⁻¹ under the assumption of climate change. On the other hand, the mean annual percolation rate, used as an indicator of impacts on the regional water budget, will diminish under future climatic conditions. The results suggest that aspen SRC plantations are a suitable contribution to regional CO₂ mitigation and carbon sequestration under possible change of climate, but that negative impacts on the regional water budget are possible.     

Toxicological characterization of the landfill leachate prior/after chemical and electrochemical treatment: A study on human and plant cells

In this research, toxicological safety of two newly developed methods for the treatment of landfill leachate from the Piškornica (Croatia) sanitary landfill was investigated. Chemical treatment procedure combined chemical precipitation with CaO followed by coagulation with ferric chloride and final adsorption by clinoptilolite. Electrochemical treatment approach included pretreatment with ozone followed by electrooxidation/electrocoagulation and final polishing by microwave irradiation. Cell viability of untreated/treated landfill leachate was examined using fluorescence microscopy. Cytotoxic effect of the original leachate was obtained for both exposure periods (4 and 24 h) while treated samples showed no cytotoxic effect even after prolonged exposure time. The potential DNA damage of the untreated/treated landfill leachate was evaluated by the comet assay and cytokinesis-block micronucleus (CBMN) assay using either human or plant cells. The original leachate exhibited significantly higher comet assay parameters compared to negative control after 24 h exposure. On the contrary, there was no significant difference between negative control and chemically/electrochemically treated leachate for any of the parameters tested. There was also no significant increase in either CBMN assay parameter compared to the negative control following the exposure of the lymphocytes to the chemically or electrochemically treated landfill leachate for both exposure periods while the original sample showed significantly higher number of micronuclei, nucleoplasmic bridges and nuclear buds for both exposure times. Results suggest that both methods are suitable for the treatment of such complex waste effluent due to high removal efficiency of all measured parameters and toxicological safety of the treated effluent.     

Distribution of Se and its species in Myriophyllum spicatum and Ceratophyllum demersum growing in water containing Se (VI)

The uptake of Se (VI) by two aquatic plants, Myriophyllum spicatum L. and Ceratophyllum demersum L., and its effects on their physiological characteristics have been studied. Plants were cultivated outdoors under semi-controlled conditions and in two concentrations of Na selenate solution (20 μg Se L⁻¹ and 10 mg Se L⁻¹). The higher dose of Se reduced the photochemical efficiency of PSII in both species, while the lower dose had no effect on PSII. Addition of Se had no effect on the amounts of chlorophyll a and b. The concentration of Se in plants grown in 10 mg Se L⁻¹, averaged 212 ± 12 μg Se g⁻¹ DM in M. spicatum (grown from 8-13 d), and 492 ± 85 μg Se g⁻¹ DM in C. demersum (grown for 31 d). Both species could take up a large amount of Se. The amount of soluble Se compounds in enzyme extracts ranged from 16% to 26% in control, and in high Se solution from 48% to 36% in M. spicatum and C. demersum, respectively. Se-species were determined using HPLC-ICP-MS. The main soluble species in both plants was selenate (∼37%), while SeMet and SeMeSeCys were detected at trace levels.     

Suitability of passive sampling for the monitoring of pharmaceuticals in Finnish surface waters

The occurrence of five pharmaceuticals, consisting of four anti-inflammatory and one antiepileptic drug, was studied by passive sampling and grab sampling in northern Lake Päijänne and River Vantaa. The passive sampling was performed by using Chemcatcher® sampler with a SDB-RPS Empore disk as a receiving phase. In Lake Päijänne, the sampling was conducted during summer 2013 at four locations near the discharge point of a wastewater treatment plant and in the years 2013 and 2015 at four locations along River Vantaa. The samples were analyzed by liquid chromatography coupled to tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) in the multiple reaction monitoring mode. The concentrations of carbamazepine, diclofenac, ibuprofen, ketoprofen, and naproxen in Lake Päijänne determined by passive sampling ranged between 1.4–2.9 ng L^?1, 15–35 ng L^?1, 13–31 ng L^?1, 16–27 ng L^?1, and 3.3–32 ng L^?1, respectively. Similarly, the results in River Vantaa ranged between 1.2–40 ng L^?1, 15–65 ng L^?1, 13–33 ng L^?1, 16–31 ng L^?1, and 3.3–6.4 ng L^?1. The results suggest that the Chemcatcher passive samplers are suitable for detecting pharmaceuticals in lake and river waters.     

Effects of tree size and spatial distribution on growth of ponderosa pine forests under alternative management scenarios

Forest ecosystems may be actively managed toward heterogeneous stand structures to provide both economic (e.g., wood production and carbon credits) and environmental benefits (e.g., invasive pest resistance). In order to facilitate wider adoption of possibly more sustainable forest stand structures, defining growth expectations among alternative management scenarios is crucial. To estimate the effect of tree size and spatial distributions on growth for forest structures commonly considered in uneven-aged forest stand management, large (0.2 ha+) plots were established in 14 uneven-aged ponderosa pine stands in eastern Montana. All study trees were stem-mapped and measured for diameter and 10-year sapwood and basal area increment. A generalized growth model was developed to predict both total and merchantable 10-year basal area increment for nine hypothetical stand structures [three diameter distributions (reverse-J, irregular, flat) × three spatial distributions (clumpy, partial clumpy, uniform)]. Results indicate that the size and spatial distributions of individual trees have a considerable effect on overall stand growth. The greatest total stand growth was in stands with reverse “J” shaped tree size distributions, while the greatest merchantable stand growth was in stands with “flat” diameter distributions and uniform spatial distributions. Through better comprehension of generalized uneven-aged stand growth dynamics, forest managers may better assess the effects of alternative stand structures on stand growth while providing forest stand structures that may be more resilient in a changing climate.     

Complexation-flocculation of organic contaminants by the application of oxyhumolite-based humic organic matter

Control of hazardous organic micropollutants is a challenging water quality issue. Dissolved humic organic matter (DOM) isolated from oxyhumolite coal mined in Bohemia was investigated as a complexation agent to remove polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and functionalized phenols from water by a two-stage process involving complexation and flocculation. After the formation of humic-contaminant complexes, ferric salts were added resulting in the precipitation and flocculation of the DOM and the associated pollutants. Flocculation experiments with ferric ion coagulants indicated that precipitation of oxyhumolite DOM together with the complexed contaminants occurred at lower ferric ion concentrations than with the reference DOM in acidic environments (pH approximately 3.5). The complexation-flocculation removal rates for non-reactive PAHs characterized by small localization energies of pi-electrons correlated well with the complexation constants. On the other hand, the combined complexation-flocculation removal rates for activated PAHs including trans-stilbene, anthracene and 9-methyl anthracene, as well as functionalized polar phenols, were higher than predicted from the complexation coefficients. Methodological studies revealed for the first time that the ferric ion coagulant contributed to enhanced removal rates, most probably due to ferric ion-catalyzed pollutant degradation resulting in oxidized products.