Probabilistic Flood Inundation Forecasting Using Rating Curve Libraries

One approach for performing uncertainty assessment in flood inundation modeling is to use an ensemble of models with different conceptualizations, parameters, and initial and boundary conditions that capture the factors contributing to uncertainty. However, the high computational expense of many hydraulic models renders their use impractical for ensemble forecasting. To address this challenge, we developed a rating curve library method for flood inundation forecasting. This method involves pre‐running a hydraulic model using multiple inflows and extracting rating curves, which prescribe a relation between streamflow and stage at various cross sections along a river reach. For a given streamflow, flood stage at each cross section is interpolated from the pre‐computed rating curve library to delineate flood inundation depths and extents at a lower computational cost. In this article, we describe the workflow for our rating curve library method and the Rating Curve based Automatic Flood Forecasting (RCAFF) software that automates this workflow. We also investigate the feasibility of using this method to transform ensemble streamflow forecasts into local, probabilistic flood inundation delineations for the Onion and Shoal Creeks in Austin, Texas. While our results show water surface elevations from RCAFF are comparable to those from the hydraulic models, the ensemble streamflow forecasts used as inputs to RCAFF are the largest source of uncertainty in predicting observed floods.     

Reduction of Baltic Sea Nutrient Inputs and Allocation of Abatement Costs Within the Baltic Sea Catchment

The Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP) requires tools to simulate effects and costs of various nutrient abatement strategies. Hierarchically connected databases and models of the entire catchment have been created to allow decision makers to view scenarios via the decision support system NEST. Increased intensity in agriculture in transient countries would result in increased nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea, particularly from Poland, the Baltic States, and Russia. Nutrient retentions are high, which means that the nutrient reduction goals of 135 000 tons N and 15 000 tons P, as formulated in the BSAP from 2007, correspond to a reduction in nutrient loadings to watersheds by 675 000 tons N and 158 000 tons P. A cost-minimization model was used to allocate nutrient reductions to measures and countries where the costs for reducing loads are low. The minimum annual cost to meet BSAP basin targets is estimated to 4.7 billion €.     

In situ chemical oxidation: Lessons learned at multiple sites

This paper compiles a detailed set of in situ chemical oxidation (ISCO) lessons learned pertaining to design, execution, and safety based on global experiences over the last 20 years. While the benefits of a “correct” application are known (e.g., cost effectiveness, speed, permanence of treatment), history also provides examples of a variety of “incorrect” applications. These provide an opportunity to highlight recurring themes that resulted in failures. ISCO is, and will continue to provide, an important remedial tool for site remediation, particularly as a component of a multifaceted approach for addressing large and complex sites. Future success, however, requires an objective understanding of both the benefits and the limitations of the technology. The ability to learn from the mistakes of the past provides an opportunity to eliminate, or at least minimize, them in the future. Over the last 25 years of ISCO application, process understanding and knowledge have improved and evolved. This paper combines a thorough discussion of lessons learned through decades of ISCO implementation throughout all aspects of ISCO projects with an analysis of changes to the ISCO remediation market. By discussing the interplay of these two themes and providing recommendations from collective lessons learned, we hope to improve the future of safe, cost‐effective, and successful applications of ISCO.     

Latent effects of early life stage exposure to triclosan on survival in fathead minnows,Pimephales promelas

The objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of early life stage triclosan (5-chloro-2-(2,4, dichlorophenoxy)phenol, TCS) exposure on hatching, development, and survival in the fathead minnow, Pimephales promelas. Embryonic minnows were exposed to TCS (50 and 100 µg L^?1) for 10 days followed by 6 weeks depuration. Mortality and morphological deformities were recorded and quantified during exposure and at the end of depuration. No significant effects on embryonic survival, time to reach the eyed stage, or hatching were found. However, at the conclusion of the depuration period, survival was significantly reduced in TCS exposed fish depending on the concentration. Visual inspection of the exposed fish suggests that mortality is related to spinal deformities, emaciation, and reduced foraging ability. Triclosan exhibits deleterious effects in fish at lower concentrations over longer durations than previously reported. Further, mortality in exposed fish 6 weeks after exposure demonstrates the need for various exposure assays to evaluate effects of TCS.     

Conservation implications of physiological carry‐over effects in bats recovering from white‐nose syndrome

Although it is well documented that infectious diseases can pose threats to biodiversity, the potential long‐term consequences of pathogen exposure on individual fitness and its effects on population viability have rarely been studied. We tested the hypothesis that pathogen exposure causes physiological carry‐over effects with a pathogen that is uniquely suited to this question because the infection period is specific and time limited. The fungus Pseudogymnoascus destructans causes white‐nose syndrome (WNS) in hibernating bats, which either die due to the infection while hibernating or recover following emergence from hibernation. The fungus infects all exposed individuals in an overwintering site simultaneously, and bats that survive infection during hibernation clear the pathogen within a few weeks following emergence. We quantified chronic stress during the active season, when bats are not infected, by measuring cortisol in bat claws. Free‐ranging Myotis lucifugus who survived previous exposure to P. destructans had significantly higher levels of claw cortisol than naïve individuals. Thus, cryptic physiological carry‐over effects of pathogen exposure may persist in asymptomatic, recovered individuals. If these effects result in reduced survival or reproductive success, they could also affect population viability and even act as a third stream in the extinction vortex. For example, significant increases in chronic stress, such as those indicated here, are correlated with reduced reproductive success in a number of species. Future research should directly explore the link between pathogen exposure and the viability of apparently recovered populations to improve understanding of the true impacts of infectious diseases on threatened populations.     

Examining Trajectories of Change for Prosperous Forest Landscapes in Cambodia

Environmental Management - Tropical forest landscapes are undergoing rapid transition. Rural development aspirations are rising, and land use change is contributing to deforestation, degradation,...     

Population viability and harvest sustainability for Madagascar lemurs

Subsistence hunting presents a conservation challenge by which biodiversity preservation must be balanced with safeguarding of human livelihoods. Globally, subsistence hunting threatens primate populations, including Madagascar's endemic lemurs. We used population viability analysis to assess the sustainability of lemur hunting in Makira Natural Park, Madagascar. We identified trends in seasonal hunting of 11 Makira lemur species from household interview data, estimated local lemur densities in populations adjacent to focal villages via transect surveys, and quantified extinction vulnerability for these populations based on species-specific demographic parameters and empirically derived hunting rates. We compared stage-based Lefkovitch with periodic Leslie matrices to evaluate the impact of regional dispersal on persistence trajectories and explored the consequences of perturbations to the timing of peak hunting relative to the lemur birth pulse, under assumptions of density-dependent reproductive compensation. Lemur hunting peaked during the fruit-abundant wet season (March–June). Estimated local lemur densities were roughly inverse to body size across our study area. Life-history modeling indicated that hunting most severely threatened the species with the largest bodies (i.e., Hapalemur occidentalis, Avahi laniger, Daubentonia madagascariensis, and Indri indi), characterized by late-age reproductive onsets and long interbirth intervals. In model simulations, lemur dispersal within a regional metapopulation buffered extinction threats when a majority of local sites supported growth rates above the replacement level but drove regional extirpations when most local sites were overharvested. Hunt simulations were most detrimental when timed to overlap lemur births (a reality for D. madagascariensis and I. indri). In sum, Makira lemurs were overharvested. Regional extirpations, which may contribute to broad-scale extinctions, will be likely if current hunting rates persist. Cessation of anthropogenic lemur harvest is a conservation priority, and development programs are needed to help communities switch from wildlife consumption to domestic protein alternatives.     

Metal concentrations in used engine oils: Relevance to site assessments of soils

Used engine oils contain metals, which upon entering soils may pose risks to human health or the environment. In this study, previously published concentrations of 23 metals in 213 used engine oil samples from the early 1970s to the mid-1990s are statistically evaluated. Neat (100%) used engine oils were found to contain relatively high concentrations of lead, calcium, and zinc, attributable to piston blow-by of leaded gasoline, calcium salt detergent additives, and zinc-bearing anti-corrosion/anti-oxidation additives, respectively. Wear metal concentrations were lower. The lead concentration in used engine oils in the U.S. declined between the 1970s and early 1990s, potentially providing a basis to constrain the “age” of used engine oil(s) in soils. The concentrations of 23 metals in used engine oils were compared to soil risk benchmarks in 15 representative jurisdictions in the U.S., Canada, Australia, and Europe. The maximum concentrations in neat (100%) used engine oil of eight metals – Be, Co, Fe, Mn, Ni, Se, Ag, and Ti – were lower than their collective minimum benchmarks in soils for the jurisdictions surveyed, indicating their concentrations in soils could not be reasonably expected to exceed any soil benchmarks. Nine metals (As, Ba, Cd, Cr, Cu, Pb, Sn, V and Zn), but particularly arsenic, cadmium, lead, tin, and zinc, were identified as potential contaminants of concern (PCOC) for soils from locations impacted with used engine oils, owing to their higher median concentrations (i.e., 2.5, 1.4, 1038, 5.0, and 922 mg/kg in oil, respectively) relative to most soil benchmarks. Site-specific benchmarks and metal concentrations at reasonable oil in soil concentrations require consideration when developing the suite of PCOC metal analytes for conducting site assessments of soils impacted by used engine oil.     

A framework for understanding climate change impacts on coral reef social–ecological systems

Corals and coral-associated species are highly vulnerable to the emerging effects of global climate change. The widespread degradation of coral reefs, which will be accelerated by climate change, jeopardizes the goods and services that tropical nations derive from reef ecosystems. However, climate change impacts to reef social–ecological systems can also be bi-directional. For example, some climate impacts, such as storms and sea level rise, can directly impact societies, with repercussions for how they interact with the environment. This study identifies the multiple impact pathways within coral reef social–ecological systems arising from four key climatic drivers: increased sea surface temperature, severe tropical storms, sea level rise and ocean acidification. We develop a novel framework for investigating climate change impacts in social–ecological systems, which helps to highlight the diverse impacts that must be considered in order to develop a more complete understanding of the impacts of climate change, as well as developing appropriate management actions to mitigate climate change impacts on coral reef and people.