农业文化遗产地有机生产转换期农产品价格补偿测算——以云南省红河县哈尼梯田稻作系统为例

高效农业技术广泛使用提高了农业生产效率,促进了粮食产量增长,但同时也带来环境问题、食品安全问题和传统农业文化逐渐消失等负面效应。哈尼梯田作为全球重要农业文化遗产(GIAHS),具有生态价值、农业生产价值和景观价值等多重价值,保护哈尼梯田农业系统意义重大。通过有机生产提高稻谷价格的方式,推动农民继续种植水稻,可以达到保护哈尼梯田农业系统的目的。然而,从非有机到有机生产有一个转换期,这期间稻谷无法以有机产品的价格出售,所以,政府须给予一定的价格补偿才可保证农民利益和生产的持续性。论文采用问卷和访谈等调查方法,获取哈尼梯田地区农户有机转换期种植投入产出状况和劳动力外出务工收入状况,以及现代规模生产方式下的投入产出状况,通过分析对比和核算,得到结果如下:1哈尼梯田地区有机转换期水稻种植直接投入高于现代水稻种植方式,总投入成本中劳动力成本占比最大,而单产低于现代水稻种植方式;2哈尼梯田地区的青壮年劳动力偏向于在城市生活和务工,外出务工收入明显高于常规农业收入,使农业机会成本较高;3有机转换期的稻谷价格补偿至少2.84元/kg才可保证有机转换期农民收入稳定,从而达到保护哈尼梯田景观的目的。     

Risk quantification framework of hydride-based hydrogen storage systems for light-duty vehicles

This study aims to develop a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) framework for on-board hydrogen storage systems in light-duty fuel cell vehicles, with focus on hazards from potential vehicular collision affecting hydride-based hydrogen storage vessels. Sodium aluminum hydride (NaAlH₄) has been selected as a representative reversible hydride for hydrogen storage. Functionality of QRA framework is demonstrated by presenting a case study of a postulated vehicle collision (VC) involving the onboard hydrogen storage system. An event tree (ET) model is developed for VC as the accident initiating event. For illustrative purposes, a detailed FT model is developed for hydride dust cloud explosion as part of the accident progress. Phenomenologically-driven ET branch probabilities are estimated based on an experimental program performed for this purpose. Safety-critical basic events (BE) in the FT model are determined using conventional risk importance measures. The Latin Hypercube sampling (LHS) technique has been employed to propagate the aleatory (i.e., stochastic) and epistemic (i.e., phenomenological) uncertainties associated with the probabilistic ET and FT models. Extrapolation of the proposed QRA framework and its core risk-informed insights to other candidate on-board reversible and off-board regenerable hydrogen storage systems could provide better understanding of risk consequences and mitigation options associated with employing this hydrogen-based technology in the transportation sector.     

北京平原区夏垫断裂的多源遥感影像特征

1679年9月2日三河—平谷8.0级地震在地表形成总体走向N40°~45°E,倾角60°~70°,长达10 km的破裂带。该文采用Landsat-8、SPOT-5、SAR、GDEM、Google Earth多源遥感影像研究夏垫断裂的遥感影像特征。利用ERDAS软件,对Landsat-8影像按7∶4∶2依次为R、G、B分量作彩色合成增强处理,突出影像的线性构造特征;对Landsat-8和SPOT-5影像、Landsat-8和SAR影像分别进行融合处理,丰富影像的光谱信息;对GDEM与SPOT影像进行三维叠加,突出影像的三维特征;对SAR影像进行斑点压缩、方向滤波处理,突出影像平行断裂方向的线性特征。文中分析、对比了Google Earth和SPOT-5影像上地震陡坎的特征,陡坎在SPOT-5影像上表现较明显,但在影像上表现不出较低陡坎,同时,在两种影像上容易将绿色植被、狭窄道路或其它地物误认为陡坎;SAR滤波后的影像表现出暗色的线性条带;Landsat-8和SAR融合后的影像表现出较宽的异常条带,该条带指示断裂带所在位置。     

Evaluation of the economic and environmental impact of converting cropland to forest: a case study in Dunhua county, China

The Sloping Land Conversion Program (also known as "Grain for Green" or the Upland Conversion Program) for converting cropland to forest is one of China's most ambitious environmental initiatives, and is one of the world's largest land-conservation programs with a budget of RMB 337 billion (over US$ 40 billion). Although environmental impacts have played a vital role in the general reasoning and argumentation for forest plantations, environmental impact analyses have often received less attention than economic analyses in the planning of plantation forestry projects. The overall goal of this paper is to evaluate the program's environmental impact considering the farmer's interests and the potential social benefits due to carbon sequestration in different scenarios based on household and field survey data in Dunhua County. Our findings are that: (1) in many cases, the program did not give adequate consideration to land productivity and environmental heterogeneity when selecting plots; (2) more than half of the reforestation plots were on flat cropland (slopes of less than 5 degrees ); (3) in five of the eight townships, net incomes on reforested land were substantially above or below previous crop incomes, raising questions about the efficiency of the allocation of compensation to farmers participating in the program; (4) the potential carbon co-benefit increased the NPV of the program by 5954-7009 RMB/ha. In conclusion, we recommend that more attention should be paid to the quality of reforestation programs rather than just their scale and note that consideration of potential carbon sequestration co-benefits enhances the benefits of cropland conversion programs.     

Social and economic impacts of carbon sequestration and land use change on peasant households in rural China: a case study of Liping, Guizhou Province

Numerous innovative approaches to mitigate effects of excessive emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) on global climate change are being proposed and formulated. Sequestering carbon to terrestrial ecosystems represents one of the important clean development mechanisms. Reforestation through converting various non-forest lands to forests is undoubtedly an important dimension of carbon sequestration. Using Liping County in Guizhou Province as a case region, this study examines the perceived change in social and economic livelihoods of peasants and the factors responsible for the variations in the changes. The results of the study reveal that socio-economic changes associated with the government-financed project are multifaceted and profound. Because of the financial subsidies provided by the central government, this environmental action in many aspects can be regarded as a poverty reduction measure in the underdeveloped area where rural poverty is widespread. A majority of peasant households have benefited from project participation. The land conversion project with continued financial support also contributes to the social transformations of traditional rural society in remote areas to a more mobile, less subsistence agriculture-based, and open society.     

Evaluating Terrestrial Carbon Sequestration Options for Virginia

Changes in forest and agricultural land management practices have the potential to increase carbon (C) storage by terrestrial systems, thus offsetting C emissions to the atmosphere from energy production. This study assesses that potential for three terrestrial management practices within the state of Virginia, USA: afforestation of marginal agricultural lands; afforestation of riparian agricultural lands; and changing tillage practices for row crops; each was evaluated on a statewide basis and for seven regions within the state. Lands eligible for each practice were identified, and the C storage potential of each practice on those lands was estimated through a modeling procedure that utilized land-resource characteristics represented in Geographic Information System databases. Marginal agricultural lands’ afforestation was found to have the greatest potential (1.4 Tg C yr⁻¹, on average, over the first 20 years) if applied on all eligible lands, followed by riparian afforestation (0.2 Tg C yr⁻¹ over 20 years) and tillage conversion (0.1 Tg C yr⁻¹ over 14 years). The regions with the largest potentials are the Ridge and Valley of western Virginia (due to extensive areas of steep, shallow soils) and in the Mid-Atlantic Coastal Plain in eastern Virginia (wet soils). Although widespread and rapid implementation of the three modeled practices could be expected to offset only about 3.4% of Virginia’s energy-related CO₂ emissions over the following 20 years (equivalent to about 8.5% of a Kyoto Treaty–based target), they could contribute to achievement of C-management goals if implemented along with other mitigation measures.     

A GIS-based evaluation of the effect of decontamination on effective doses due to long-term external exposures in Fukushima

Despite the enormous cost of radiation decontamination, there has been almost no quantitative discussion on how much it would reduce the long-term external radiation exposure in the Evacuation Zone and Planned Evacuation Zone (restricted zone) in Fukushima. The aim of this study is to assess the effectiveness of decontamination and return options and to identify important parameters for estimating the long-term cumulated effective dose (CED) during 15, 30 and 70 year period using data on land-use, population and decontamination in the restricted zone (about 1100 km²) in Fukushima.     

不同原理分析仪观测大气中氮氧化物对比研究

氮氧化物(NOx)是大气二次光化学污染臭氧的重要前体物,但目前对其总量和分量的测量仍存在着一些难以解决的问题。选择3种不同原理的市售氮氧化物分析仪在广东和北京进行比对观测实验,从而比较其各自的优缺点及适用性。结果表明,钼转化法(MC)测得的NOx比光转化法(LC)及液相化学发光法(LPC)所测得的值都明显偏高,可近似认为是NOy。LPC检测NO2时受到PAN等含有—NO2生色基团的干扰,结果比LC略高。LC测得的NOx值与实际大气最为接近。MC测定的NOx比实际值高,但能满足空气质量指标监测的需求;LC能够准确测定大气中的NOx,但造价太高,仅适用于大气化学机理研究;而LPC原理的仪器适合于短时间的航测、高塔和系留艇进行垂直梯度观测。     

用于生产过程的故障诊断专家系统

讨论了利用人工智能技术来实现生产过程故障检测与诊断的原理。以液位控制系统为例，说明了“基于规则”和“规则架＋ 规则体”两种方法建立专家系统的过程及知识表达的思路     

最小割集在系统安全分析方法中的应用

利用事故树分析法对矿井火灾进行分析 ,结合平煤六矿建立了矿井火灾事故树。阐述了最小割集理论及其在事故分析中的作用 ,着重提出了对事故树底部事件进行排序分级的加权结构重要度分析法。该方法新颖、简洁而实用 ,为系统安全分析提供了新的方法和途径。