Before the crash: A systematic analysis of police narratives to determine the prevalence of pre-crash factors in fatality road transport crashes

Abstract

Objectives: The objectives of this study were to identify the prevalence of pre-crash factors that were present in fatal road transport crashes for the deceased and counterpart road user.

Methods: The study is a retrospective population-based case series study of transport-related deaths reported to coroners in Australia from 2013 to 2016. Data was extracted from the National Coronial Information System.

Results: In total, 6,137 fatality crashes occurred during the study period. Police reports were available for 5,523 crashes (89.9%). The most frequently reported pre-crash factors reported behaviour specifically drivers (e.g., driving without a license or while license was disqualified). Presence of intoxicating substances were also reported in the deceased and counterparts. Analyses of toxicology reports are continuing to determine if rates are comparable to level of use in community.

Conclusions: Coronial report provide detailed information that may be pertinent to understanding and potentially preventing crashes. Also emerging from the data is the extent of pre-crash factors that relate to illegal or deviant behavior and whether these are contextual or contributory factors.     

Fatal pedestrian crashes on interstates and other freeways in the United States

Introduction: More than 800 pedestrians die annually in crashes on interstates and other freeways in the United States, but few studies have examined their characteristics. Method: Data from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System on pedestrians fatally injured during 2015–2017 were analyzed. Chi-square tests compared characteristics of pedestrians killed on interstates and other freeways with those that died on other roads, and across crash types among freeway deaths. Land use characteristics of locations where pedestrians were killed while crossing freeways in a large state (California) were identified using Google Earth. Results: A larger proportion of pedestrians killed on freeways died on dark and unlit roads (48% vs. 32%), were male (78% vs. 68%), or were ages 20–44 (55% vs. 32%) compared with pedestrians killed on other roads. Crossing (42%) was the most common crash type among pedestrian deaths on freeways, followed by disabled-vehicle-related crashes (18%). Pedestrians who died while crossing more often had blood alcohol concentrations ≥ 0.08 g/dL (40%) than those in disabled-vehicle-related (22%) or other crashes (34%). Deaths in crossing crashes were more likely than other freeway deaths to occur on urban roads (81%), at speed limits ≤50 mph (13%), or between 18:00 and 23:59 (49%), and 58% of crossing crashes analyzed for land use were located between residential and other (e.g., commercial, recreational) uses. Over a third (37%) of deaths in disabled-vehicle-related crashes occurred at speed limits ≥70 mph. Conclusions: A surprising proportion of pedestrian deaths occur on controlled-access roads not designed for walking. Countermeasures for these crashes need to be implemented to see meaningful reductions in pedestrian fatalities overall. Practical applications: Improving roadway and vehicle lighting, requiring reflective warning devices for marking disabled vehicles, constructing pedestrian overpasses and underpasses in areas frequently crossed, and promoting alternative means of traveling between residential and commercial areas could help.     

基于ALOHA软件的某化工厂选址合理性评估

为了研究化工厂选址的合理性,以山东省某化工厂为例,采用ALOHA(有害大气空中定位软件)模拟软件定量确定厂区内环氧乙烷毒气扩散事故的影响区域和敏感点毒气浓度,结合GoogleEarth地图对影响范围进行实地拟合。结果表明化工厂的环氧乙烷储罐泄漏后,毒气扩散到厂区范围之外,毒气浓度在50~500ppm之间的重伤区(ERPG-2)扩散距离可达1.7km,对周围居民的人身安全构成严重威胁;厂区应根据拟合结果重新规划工厂中环氧乙烷储罐的位置;ALOHA软件对化工厂选址评价提供了新的手段。     

长江经济带PM_(2.5)时空特征及影响因素研究

大气细颗粒物(PM_(2.5))因其对空气环境质量乃至人类健康的巨大危害而逐渐引起学者们的关注。本文以我国综合实力最强、战略支撑作用最为突出的区域之一——长江经济带为研究对象,基于城市级空气质量监测数据,运用地理学时空分析与GIS可视化方法探索并呈现了2015年长江经济带PM_(2.5)的时空分布特征及其演变规律;在此基础上,结合空间回归模型考察了PM_(2.5)浓度与区域城市发展之间的内在关系。结果表明,就空间特征而言,长江中下游地区PM_(2.5)污染较长江上游地区更为严重,长江北岸地区比长江南岸地区更为严重;PM_(2.5)高浓度集聚地带主要位于鄂皖苏大部分地区,与空气质量较佳的云南及其周边地区呈"对角"分布状态。长江经济带内城市间PM_(2.5)浓度存在着显著的正向空间自相关,且自相关性随距离增大而不断减弱,其门槛尺度约为900 km;在这一范围内,PM_(2.5)空间集聚效应较为明显。就时间特征而言,冬季PM_(2.5)浓度相对较高,春秋两季次之,夏季空气质量最好;各地区浓度分布在年初相对离散,后有所趋同。此外,PM_(2.5)与其他类型的大气污染物(如SO2、NO2、O3)浓度两两之间均存在着显著的正相关性,暗示大气污染物从原发污染演变为二次污染,形成恶性循环。空间回归分析结果表明,PM_(2.5)污染随经济发展水平的提高呈现先上升后下降的趋势,在一定程度上支持了"环境库兹涅兹曲线"假说;且人口密度、公共交通运输强度均在不同程度上导致长江经济带PM_(2.5)浓度的升高。最后,从区域性联防联控、不同类型大气污染物协同治理、促进经济发展方式转型等方面为长江经济带的大气环境治理提出切实可行的政策建议。     

三峡库区移民贫困致因的精准识别与减贫路径的实证研究

随着我国经济发展和扶贫成效的显现,老区、山区、民族地区和移民库区等集中连片的特殊贫困区已经成为我国当前精准扶贫的主战场。由于面临生产资料匮乏、生态环境恶化和地质灾害频发等恶劣环境,库区移民贫困问题已成为新时期扶贫攻坚最难啃的"硬骨头"。因此,开展库区移民贫困致因的精准识别与减贫路径研究具有重要的现实意义。基于对库区移民贫困现状的扎根理论分析,本文提出了分析农户生计的新框架。在此基础上,本文以三峡库区26个县(区)为研究对象,随机抽取4县(区)796户移民作为样本,首先,采用灰色关联分析法和熵权法对库区移民主要致贫因子进行挖掘;接着,采用PLS-SEM模型分析影响库区移民生计状况的关键因子和关键路径。研究表明:(1)三峡库区移民贫困现象仍很严重,患病、劳动能力弱和失地是移民致贫的三大主因。三峡库区仍有175.94万人生活在贫困线以下,三大致贫原因依次是:因病致贫26.49%、因劳动能力弱致贫22.10%和失地致贫21.65%。(2)心理资本可有效促进移民其他资本效能的发挥,对生计状况存在着显著的直接效应和间接效应。(3)在影响生计状况的四类资本中,人力资本对库区移民生计状况影响最大。基于以上发现,本文提出了实现库区移民精准脱贫的政策建议:(1)国家应高度重视三峡库区移民贫困问题,大力开展精准扶贫;(2)增加心理干预措施以提高移民心理资本存量,帮助移民摆脱心理贫困;(3)开展劳动力技能培训,提高库区移民人力资本水平。     

Determinants of workers’ attitude toward low-carbon technology adoption: empirical evidence from Chinese firms

As the main contribution of China’s carbon emissions, low-carbon production in industrial firms becomes an inevitable choice, and industrial firm employees’ attitudes on low-carbon new technology directly influence the results of low-carbon production. Based on the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology model, structural equation modeling was used to analyze the main factors influencing firm staff to accept low-carbon new technology. The study reveals that the employee’s social impact, performance expectation, effort expectations and convenient conditions, and employee characteristics are all main factors affecting their acceptance attitudes on low-carbon new technology. And social influence has the largest effect on employees’ acceptance attitudes toward low-carbon new technology. Accordingly, relevant policy recommendations are put forward for the future research direction.     

不同政策对农户农药施用行为的影响

农户不规范的施药行为是引发农产品质量安全风险最直接的原因,为规范农户的施药行为,政府颁布并实施了多种政策,但大多收效甚微。农户不规范的施药行为主要表现在过量使用高毒农药、施用过程中不按规定操作以及农药残留物的处理问题上,如何针对农户不同的施药行为制定相应的政策,以达到有效规范农户施药行为的效果,这是本文研究的主要目的。文章基于全国986个农户的调查数据,运用有序logistic模型,分别回归了不同政策对农户过量施用农药的行为、不遵守施药间隔期的行为以及在施药过程中不阅读标签说明的行为的影响程度,结果表明:强令禁止高毒农药、对违反农产品安全生产进行处罚以及对收购的农产品进行检测等命令控制政策对农户是否过量施用农药的行为具有较强的规范效应,但对农户在施药过程中是否阅读标签说明的规范效果不佳;农药施用技术培训、农产品安全生产宣传教育等宣传培训的政策能有效规范农户在施药前阅读标签说明,但对农户是否过量施用农药的影响不大;以市场为基础的激励政策对农户过量施用农药、阅读标签说明以及遵守间隔期均有显著的规范效果。由此提出,政府在实施命令控制政策的同时,应加强农产品安全知识的宣传力度,定期为农户提供农药施用技术培训;由于以市场为基础的激励政策能有效弥补命令控制政策的监管漏洞,从而更有效的规范农户的施药行为,因此要建立激励惩罚机制,对使用生物农药、施用有机肥等具有正外部性的投入行为进行补贴,对使用高污染、高毒农药的行为进行征税,充分发挥市场为基础的监管政策的有效性。     

The data not collected on community forestry

Conservation and development practitioners increasingly promote community forestry as a way to conserve ecosystem services, consolidate resource rights, and reduce poverty. However, outcomes of community forestry have been mixed; many initiatives failed to achieve intended objectives. There is a rich literature on institutional arrangements of community forestry, but there has been little effort to examine the role of socioeconomic, market, and biophysical factors in shaping both land‐cover change dynamics and individual and collective livelihood outcomes. We systematically reviewed the peer‐reviewed literature on community forestry to examine and quantify existing knowledge gaps in the community‐forestry literature relative to these factors. In examining 697 cases of community forest management (CFM), extracted from 267 peer‐reviewed publications, we found 3 key trends that limit understanding of community forestry. First, we found substantial data gaps linking population dynamics, market forces, and biophysical characteristics to both environmental and livelihood outcomes. Second, most studies focused on environmental outcomes, and the majority of studies that assessed socioeconomic outcomes relied on qualitative data, making comparisons across cases difficult. Finally, there was a heavy bias toward studies on South Asian forests, indicating that the literature on community forestry may not be representative of decentralization policies and CFM globally.     

基于数值模式的环境空气质量预报影响因素和改进方法

数值预报是各地开展环境空气质量业务预报的主流预报方法之一。模式预报产品、基础输入资料、外部技术支持、主客观预报偏差和预报命中概率等诸多因素均会不同程度地影响数值模式预报效果,研究探讨了上述因素对数值模式预报效果的影响及其针对性的改进方法,以期降低预报偏差,改善业务预报整体效果,为各地提高业务预报质量提供方法思路和技术参考。     

环境有毒有害物质快速鉴别方法与应用

频发的污染事故严重影响环境质量,危害人群健康,事故的源解析和修复成为了关键问题。而传统的靶向分析方法无法胜任实际工作需求。因此,本研究建立了1)有毒有害物质清单;2)一种针对有毒有害物质的快速高效鉴别方法。将上述方法应用于某场地污染事件,成功筛查鉴定出30种环境高关注度物质,通过数据库比对进一步鉴定了6种危废物质,通过购买标准样品成功验证了4种物质。同时,还通过文献查阅与标样比对确认了另外2种有毒物质。因此,本研究建立的有毒有害物质快速筛查方法为实际环境中的污染物快速鉴别提供了一种可靠的、可行的方法。