基于数值模拟的台风危险性分析综述(Ⅱ)——随机抽样模拟与极值风速预测

台风危险性分析是台风损失估计及防灾减灾的基础。对基于数值模拟的台风危险性分析所采用的随机台风概率模型、随机抽样模拟方法和极值风速预测进行了回顾与评述,包括台风关键参数概率模型及其相关性、台风路径模型、台风登陆衰减和海陆风速转换模型以及台风极值风速概率模型,并针对我国东南沿海地区台风危险性分析数值模拟采用的相关模型给出了相关建议。     

江苏沿海风能资源禀赋与开发利用研究

江苏沿海地区拥有丰富的风能资源,开发前景十分广阔,尤其是中部、南部地区拥有广阔的沿海滩涂和辐射沙洲,建设沿海风电场的条件优越,是打造江苏"海上三峡"新能源基地的希望所在。阐述了江苏沿海风能资源开发的重要意义,分析了沿海风能资源的禀赋与时空分布特点,指出江苏沿海岸区风能资源丰富,且沿海滩涂宽广,是建立大型风力发电场的理想之地,在此基础上提出发展江苏沿海绿色能源基地的构想。     

机械清洗法对MBR膜泥饼层的影响

膜污染是制约MBR发展的瓶颈。考察投加ABS颗粒对MBR膜组件上膜泥饼层的影响,并设对照实验。结果表明,对照MBR膜通量下降速度快,膜污染严重,膜表面上累积厚厚的泥饼层,而在ABS MBR中膜通量下降速度则缓慢的多,且膜上泥饼层积累量则明显少于对照MBR;曝气量越大,颗粒运行的速度也越快,泥饼层被撞落量也越多;颗粒以碰撞角度为45°冲刷膜的情况下,泥饼层掉落效果明显增加;泥饼层包裹的膜丝根数越多,泥饼层的静摩擦力和保持泥饼层不被破坏的力也越大,泥饼层就越难被冲刷掉。SEM照片显示,ABS MBR的膜孔堵塞要严重于对照MBR,表面的褶皱要较对照MBR多。     

基于回归分析的火灾发生气象因子的研究

利用二元回归分析法,对火灾发生次数、空气湿度、风速进行回归分析并检验,得出了火灾发生次数、空气湿度、风速三者之间的显著线性关系。     

防风抑尘网设计要点及参数的确定

介绍了堆场起尘、防风抑尘网抑尘的机理和国内外防风抑尘网研究结果,结合实际工程设计的经验,分析了防风抑尘网设计要点和主要参数,提出防风抑尘网设计的意见和建议。     

Offshore wind power potential of the Black Sea region in Turkey

Majority of the studies on offshore wind power potential assessment is limited to the examination of the wind speed only. This study examines the offshore wind power potential of the Black Sea coastal region in Turkey based on location selection criteria including territorial waters, military areas, civil aviation, shipping routes, pipelines and underground cables, social, and environmental concerns. Wind Atlas Analysis and Application Program (WAsP) is used to do the statistical analysis of wind speed and wind direction data for 20 locations in the Black Sea coastal region. WAsP results are then elaborated based on the location selection criteria for better assessment of offshore wind power utilization. The study reveals that there are limited numbers of locations for offshore wind power generation in the Black Sea region in spite of its long coastline. Moreover, there is a high need for a zoning change for Amasra shores in order to utilize high offshore wind power potential of Amasra. Our finding suggests that location selection criteria other than wind speed should definitely be considered for better assessment of the wind power potential of a region.     

ANALYSIS OF WIND- AND SHIP-INDUCED SEDIMENT RESUSPENSION IN DULUTH-SUPERIOR HARBOR1

ABSTRACT: Suspended solids and ammonium concentration profiles measured at five locations in Duluth-Superior Harbor during July-October 1985 were analyzed to quantify wind and ship effects on sediment resuspension and resulting harbor water quality. Wind components from the SE quadrant correlated strongly with depth-averaged suspended solids concentrations that were unaffected by ship passage or thermal stratification. Winds from that quadrant have the largest fetch in the harbor. The highest correlation (r²= 0.93) was with the 6-hour average of the ESE wind velocity component. Multiple linear regression analysis of data from post-ship passage concentration profiles yielded numerical estimates of settling velocities of 0.08 to 0.25 cm s^?1, typical of ship-resuspended sediments, and vertical eddy diffusivities of 4 to 13 cm² s¹. The results suggest that ambient vertical eddy diffusivities in the harbor are less than 4 cm² s^?1 in the absence of ship passages and with winds less than 5 m s^?1 (10 knots).     

广深准高速铁路安全管理模式探讨

广深准高速铁路的开通运营，以及广深铁路公司股份制改造，从客观上要求改革与优化铁路安全管理体制，建工新的铁路安全管理模式。本文构造了广深铁路安全管理模式，满足国家确定的“企业负责，行业管理，国家监察，群众监督”的安全工作体制要求，引入风险管理，实行事故保险，提出应该以安全文化作为新模式的软件，优化新的安全管理体制。     

THE EFFECTS OF A MOVING RAINSTORM ON DIRECT RUNOFF PROPERTIES1

ABSTRACT: The effects of a moving rainstorm on flood runoff characteristics were investigated. A flood hydrograph simulation model called “FH-Model” and a natural watershed were used. A hypothetical rainstorm of 50 years recurrence interval, 75 mm depth, and 4 hours duration was used to show the effects of velocity and direction of the moving rainstorm on the runoff characteristics. Compared with an equivalent stationary rainstorm (ESRS), the peak flow caused by a rainstorm moving in a downstream direction with a speed equal to channel velocity, V, was 27.5 percent higher and the peak flow caused by the same rainstorm moving in an upstream direction was 21.7 percent smaller. These percentages reduced to 10.5 percent and 8.6 percent for storms moving downstream and upstream, respectively, at three times the channel velocity, 3V. There were negligible differences in the time of peak, T_p between runoff caused by storms moving downstream and runoff produced by ESRS. However, T_p for a storm moving upstream at V velocity was 82 percent higher than that produced by ESRS, but was reduced to 27 percent higher when the storm velocity was 3V.     

“一一·二四”海难渤海风场的数值模拟

用中尺度数值模式 ＭＭ５对 １９９９年 １１月 ２４日烟台附近发生重大海难事故的渤海风场进行了数值模 拟，探讨了该次冷锋大风的风场特征和影响机制．结果表明：用９０ｋｍ的粗网格可以成功地模拟地面冷高压 与锋面的发展和移动，以及高空环流形势的演变．而通过３０ｋｍ细网格的模拟发现，在冷锋后的行星边界层 中．存在着一条宽度为 ２００ ｋｉｎ的中尺度强风带，最大风速位于 ９２５ｈＰａ，它与高空的极锋急流并不相连；细 网格还模拟出了渤海中尺度低压的发展过程，它使近地面层大风的强度显著加强．模拟还表明，海陆差异对 近地面的风场分布有重要的影响，强风带移入渤海后，在渤海海域形成一个 ２００—３００ ｋｍ的中尺度强风 区．因此，采用具有较高分辨率的中尺度数值模式，对提高渤海大风的预报水平，避兔海难事故的发生更具 有重要意义．