市场失灵、非市场价值与农地非农化过度性损失

农地资源不仅具有经济生产功能，还具有大气调节、涵养水源、保持土壤成分、休闲娱乐等多种生态功能，而在非农化过程中这些功能在市场中没有以价格的形式体现出来，没有包含在农地的现实价值中。因而，有必要对农地的非市场功能进行详尽的分类及价值估算。同时，将由于市场失灵而没能包含到农地总价值中的生态环境等非市场价值纳入到成本效益决策中，来减少市场失灵所造成的农地非农化的效率损失。通过对农地非市场功能的具体分类及量化，测算我国不同经济区域因市场失灵导致的农地非农化过度损失，结果显示，代表东、中、西部地区的江苏、湖北和甘肃省的农地非农化过度损失Ⅰ分别为31.58%、38.13%和43.85%，这为我国农地非农化的行为调控及相应公共政策措施的制订和实施提供了理论依据。     

考虑人为因素的可靠性评估

统计数据表明,系统的可靠运行不可忽略人为误操作造成的故障,该故障发生率有时甚至超过设备本身导致的系统故障发生率。将人为因素与设备自身因素造成的系统故障进行对比,分析人为因素造成系统故障后的特点,可得出人为因素的可靠性参数。根据解析法和模拟法的相关理论计算考虑人为因素的可靠性指标,可以看出考虑人为因素的计算结果更加符合实际运行特点,便于相关人员采取对策,保障系统的安全运行。     

直升机机载产品环境鉴定试验故障分析

目的探究机载产品在鉴定试验阶段故障频发的原因,并改进机载产品研制流程中的不足之处。方法收集某型直升机机载产品50项环境鉴定试验故障,并对环境试验故障进行分析。结果环境试验故障主要为三防及振动试验故障,其故障发生的原因主要为材料及表面处理方法选用不当、设计缺陷和质量控制程序不够严格。结论针对该分析结果提出机载产品在设计过程中,需要通过尽早安排环境研制性试验、建立环境数据库、模拟仿真进行环境适应性设计和加强质量管理等措施,避免机载产品在鉴定试验阶段故障频发的问题。     

小子样成败型产品可靠性评估方法研究

介绍了一种小子样成败型产品可靠性评估方法。基于"计量评估"理论原则,针对可用于评价产品的特征量的试验数据,依次运用了数据样本子样的概率分布拟合检验方法、样本数据的一致性检验和离群值识别等统计学方法,最终使用经检验的特征量试验数据完成产品的可靠性评估。使用实例数据,应用评估方法,完成了一类典型产品的可靠性评估,其中特别指出的是,在实际应用过程中,应该尤其关注离群值的识别和剔除。实例证明,此方法可用于特征量明确的小子样成败型产品的可靠性评估。     

装备故障模式影响实际分析

在明确FMEA分析方法意义的基础上,本文对某装备进行故障模式及影响分析,并得出相应结论,以有助于该装备的研制与使用。     

Catastrophic Reproductive Failure, Terrestrial Survival, and Persistence of the Marbled Salamander

Abstract:  Wide variation in reproductive success is common among amphibians that breed in seasonal ponds, but persistence of adults can buffer against these fluctuations, particularly for long-lived species. We hypothesized that the frequent episodes of catastrophic failure of the marbled salamander ( Ambystoma opacum ) enhance the importance of high terrestrial survival. At Rainbow Bay in South Carolina reproductive success was poor (<1 metamorph/breeding female) in nearly half of the 22 years that the species bred. Complete failure occurred in 6 of 22 years. To study catastrophic failure, we adapted an age-structured, individual-based model with density-dependent growth and survival of larvae. The model was based on extensive data from local field studies and experiments. With consistently good survival in the pond stages, the simulated population required survival probabilities in the upland stages (juveniles and adults) near 0.5/year to persist and near 0.8/year to achieve the increases observed. Catastrophic failure, occurring randomly with probability 0.5/year, created additional fluctuations in the population, raised the thresholds of survival required for persistence, and caused extinction under conditions that were otherwise favorable. The marbled salamander at Rainbow Bay is not at great risk of extinction because of catastrophic failure, but the risk increases dramatically if life span is decreased or frequency of failure is increased. Any reduction in terrestrial survival will have deleterious consequences by reducing the breeding populations at equilibrium, even if it does not jeopardize persistence. Our model provides assessments of risk that can be applied to poorly studied species with similar life histories, such as the endangered flatwoods salamander ( A. cingulatum ).     

Corrosion failure probability analysis of buried gas pipelines based on subset simulation

Corrosion is the main reason for the failure of buried gas pipelines. For effective corrosion failure probability analysis, the structural reliability theory was adopted in this study to establish two calculation models for pipeline corrosion failure: the pressure failure model and von Mises stress failure model. Then, two calculation models for the corrosion failure probability were established based on a corrosion depth growth model obtained from actual survey data of soil corrosion characteristics. In an example, Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and subset simulation (SS) were used to analyze the corrosion failure probability of pipelines, and the results were compared. SS can compensate for the shortcomings of MCS as it has higher computational efficiency and accuracy. Therefore, SS was adopted to simulate variations in the corrosion failure probability of buried pipelines with the service time for the two failure probability calculation models, which were applied to a natural gas pipeline located in a chemical industry park in Zhuhai, China. A sensitivity analysis was carried out on the relevant parameters that affect the failure probability. The results showed that multiple loads caused by the covering soil, residual stress, temperature differential, and bending stress have a non-negligible effect on the pipeline reliability. The corrosion coefficients gradually become the most important factors that affect the failure probability with increased service time. The proposed methodology considers the actual operating conditions of pipelines to provide a reliable theoretical basis for integrity management.     

在役管道防腐层的失效与维修

介绍了管道防腐层失效的原因和方式,指出水和氧气是防腐层失效的原因,含水量和含氧量决定腐蚀程度,提出对防腐层及时检查与修复等措施.     

某厂氩气纯化器失效分析及对策

某厂氩气纯化器是由1Cr18Ni9不锈钢制成,在使用过程中出现致密性的网状裂纹开裂。详细论述了氩气纯化器开裂失效的原因,并通过理论分析及实践摸索,找出了应对氩气纯化器失效的对策。并在实际运行中得到了验证,确保了新制氩气纯化器的安全可靠运行。     

天然气管道失效个人生命风险评价技术研究

为研究天然气长输管道失效个人生命风险,提出一种以人员伤亡概率为指标的天然气管道失效后果风险评价方法。基于天然气管道的失效概率和失效致死长度参数,建立天然气长输管道生命风险评价模型。用该模型,对国内某城市住宅小区内带腐蚀缺陷的天然气管线进行定量风险分析。借鉴英国天然气输送公司数据,确定天然气管线个人生命风险值。案例证明,用所建立的天然气管道失效个人生命风险评价模型能够有效地分析带缺陷天然气管道失效后果,实现天然气管道的个人安全生命风险全定量评价。