Topical scientific and practical issues of wildland fire problem

Problem of wildfires has not been resolved anywhere in the world. Mere increase of technical power does not lead to desirable results. Forests of developed countries burn as actively as those in Africa or in Russia. The main reasons of wildfire problem are as follows: (1) Constant wandering of dry seasons over the planet causing outbreaks of wildfires. (2) Unpredicted self-development of ordinary wildfires into awful fire disasters. (3) Difficulties in delivery and use of heavy machines on hardly accessible territories. (4) Absence of a perfect technique for economic evaluation of how effectively the wildfire control system works. (5) Absence of the system of payments encouraging wildfire fighters. To solve the problem of wildfires in Russia it is necessary to: (1) Create the Russian wildfire behaviour and fire effects prediction system on the basis of the developed classification of vegetation fuels and methods of their mapping as well as maximum utilization of forest inventory information and Geographic Information System (GIS). (2) Elaborate a technique of proper wildfire monitoring including estimation of vegetation damage. (3) Improve daily rating of regional fire danger. (4) Improve fire-preventive arrangement of the territory covered by vegetation, the main goal being creation of favourable conditions for active fire management. (5) Choose the main direction in elaboration of fire-fighting means and methods taking into account their universality, simplicity, reliability, etc. (6) Elaborate an improved technique for estimation of economic effectiveness of the wildfire control system. (7) Develop international cooperation of scientists and professionals in fire management.     

Examining bushfire policy in action: Preparedness and behaviour in the 2009 Black Saturday fires

An important part of reducing the risk of disaster is the preparedness of the people at risk. Australian bushfire authorities have policies and publicity about what households should do to be prepared – which include knowledge about fire risk, awareness of one’s own risk, taking specific steps to reduce risk including having an emergency plan. Yet, there is sparse empirical evidence about the link between preparedness and actual behaviour in the face of a major disaster.The authors had an opportunity to examine the circumstances surrounding the 172 civilian fatalities which occurred in the 2009 Victorian ‘Black Saturday’ bushfires, through the examination of a detailed fatality dataset compiled by the Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission. This dataset allows detailed examination of Victorian bushfire safety policy (‘Stay or go’) in action on a day of extreme fire danger: from preparedness (both before and on the day of the fire) to behaviour on the day of the fire itself.This analysis presents three overarching findings. First, some aspects of ‘Stay or go’ appear to be supported: being well-prepared to evacuate remains the safest option in a bushfire; sheltering passively is very dangerous. Second, successful implementation of ‘Stay or go’ depends on a multitude of factors, which can challenge even the most capable householders. Third, events like Black Saturday challenge the ‘Stay or go’ approach, and indicate the need for a different approach on extreme fire danger days. We conclude by reflecting on the findings from this research in terms of the most recent changes to bushfire policy in Victoria.     

Comparing measured and modelled forest carbon stocks in high-boreal forests of harvest and natural-disturbance origin in Labrador, Canada

Understanding the effects of disturbance regimes on carbon (C) stocks and stock changes is a prerequisite to estimating forest C stocks and fluxes. Live-tree, dead-tree, woody debris (WD), stump, buried wood, organic layer, and mineral soil C stock data were collected from high-boreal black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.) stands of harvest and fire origin and compared to values predicted by the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3); the core model of Canada's National Forest Carbon Monitoring, Accounting and Reporting System. Data comparing the effect of natural and anthropogenic disturbance history on forest C stocks are limited, but needed to evaluate models such as the CBM-CFS3. Results showed that adjustments to the CBM-CFS3 volume-to-biomass conversion and partitioning parameters were required for the non-merchantable and branch C pools to accurately capture live-tree C stocks in the studied black spruce ecosystems. Accuracy of the CBM-CFS3 modelled estimates of dead organic matter and soil C pools was improved relative to regional default parameters by increased snag fall and >10 cm WD base decay rates. The model evaluation process also highlighted the importance of developing a bryophyte module to account for bryophyte C dynamics and the physical burial of woody debris by bryophytes. Modelled mineral soil C estimates were improved by applying a preliminary belowground slow C pool base decay rate optimized for the soil type of the studied sites, Humo-Ferric Podzols.     

A model for wildfire prevention planning in game resources

The high incidence of hunting activity and forest fires in different ecosystems (particularly in Mediterranean ecosystems) requires a model, which allows for the comprehensive management of hunting resources and estimating the potential damage caused by this type of disturbance. This paper proposes a model for evaluating the socio-economic effects of forest fires on hunting. Its cornerstone lies in evaluating hunting resource availability for each ecosystem within its territorial mosaic. Each game management unit (GMU) is identified by vegetation structure and habitat type. It presents a novel approach in which the economic value of each game management unit is linked to potential forest fire damages. The effect a forest fire has on an entire ecosystem depends on the intensity of its flames. A sample study was undertaken in the province of Huelva in Andalusia (southern Spain). The socio-economic hunting vulnerability of the province of Huelva was 45,188,000€. The results obtained confirmed the need for an economic appraisal of non-forest products in the forest and other woodland areas. Geographic Information System increases the flexibility and simplicity of our methodology which permits immediate extrapolation to other agroforestry territories.     

Display and interpretation of fire behavior probabilities for long-term planning

Fire management planning for wildlands traditionally uses fire behavior estimated on the basis of worst-case weather at a specific site, but more realistic estimates can be obtained by considering the entire distribution of possible sites and weather conditions. Probability distributions of four widely used fire behavior variables were derived for four test cases in the Northern Rockies and Northern Intermountain Zone. The variables were rate of spread, fireline intensity, fire perimeter length-to-width ratio, and scorch height. Results were depicted in simple line graphs, three-dimensional pin graphs, and tables; they ranged from the cumulative probability of one variable to joint probabilities of four variables. Increasing the number of variables depicted increased the amount and scope of information available. Examples of interpreting the graphs and tables show how these techniques can be used in long-term fire program planning, fire suppression, management of various resources affected by fire, and interdisciplinary resource planning.     

A derivation of the statistical characteristics of forest fires

The analysis of large data sets concerning fires in various forested areas of the world has pointed out that burned areas can often be described by different power-law distributions for small, medium and large fires and that a scaling law for the time intervals separating successive fires is fulfilled. The attempts of deriving such statistical laws from purely theoretical arguments have not been fully successful so far, most likely because important physical and/or biological factors controlling forest fires were not taken into account. By contrast, the two-layer spatially extended forest model we propose in this paper encapsulates the main characteristics of vegetational growth and fire ignition and propagation, and supports the empirically discovered statistical laws. Since the model is fully deterministic and spatially homogeneous, the emergence of the power and scaling laws does not seem to necessarily require meteorological randomness and geophysical heterogeneity, although these factors certainly amplify the chaoticity of the fires. Moreover, the analysis suggests that the existence of different power-laws for fires of various scale might be due to the two-layer structure of the forest which allows the formation of different kinds of fires, i.e. surface, crown, and mixed fires.     

Charcoal production in a UK moorland wildfire – How important is it?

Wildfires are a common feature of peatland environments, but the carbon balance of these wildfires is often not considered and the production of refractory black carbon in these wildfires could be an important addition to carbon accumulation and mitigate losses of biomass during the fire. This study investigates the biomass and carbon losses during a moorland wildfire. Changes in above-ground carbon stocks were calculated using a combination of field data, laboratory measurements and literature values. The results show that approximately 14% of the carbon in the original above-ground biomass remained on the site after the burn. Black carbon production was approximately 6 gC m(-2) which constituted 4.3% of the biomass lost. The survival of biomass and black carbon may help to mitigate the loss of carbon during the fire.     

Stay and defend or leave early: Policy problems and experiences during the 2003 Victorian bushfires

Australian state and territory fire authorities advise residents to make a decision to prepare, stay and defend their properties from bushfires or leave well before the fire arrives in their area. The ‘Stay and defend or leave early’ policy is underpinned by strong evidence that well-prepared houses can be successfully defended and that late evacuation is a dangerous strategy. This paper presents the results of a study of the policy's implementation during the 2003 bushfires in North East Victoria and East Gippsland. Results suggest that despite high levels of awareness and support for the policy, there is some confusion over what it means to ‘stay and defend’ and ‘leave early’.     

Environmental sampling of volatile organic compounds during the 2018 Camp Fire in Northern California

Trace analysis of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) during wildfires is imperative for environmental and health risk assessment. The use of gas sampling devices mounted on unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to chemically sample air during wildfires is of great interest because these devices move freely about their environment, allowing for more representative air samples and the ability to sample areas dangerous or unreachable by humans. This work presents chemical data from air samples obtained in Davis, CA during the most destructive wildfire in California's history - the 2018 Camp Fire – as well as the deployment of our sampling device during a controlled experimental fire while fixed to a UAV. The sampling mechanism was an in-house manufactured micro-gas preconcentrator (µPC) embedded onto a compact battery-operated sampler that was returned to the laboratory for chemical analysis. Compounds commonly observed in wildfires were detected during the Camp Fire using gas chromatography mass spectrometry (GC–MS), including BTEX (benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, m+p-xylene, and o-xylene), benzaldehyde, 1,4-dichlorobenzene, naphthalene, 1,2,3-trimethylbenzene and 1-ethyl-3-methylbenzene. Concentrations of BTEX were calculated and we observed that benzene and toluene were highest with average concentrations of 4.7 and 15.1 µg/m³, respectively. Numerous fire-related compounds including BTEX and aldehydes such as octanal and nonanal were detected upon experimental fire ignition, even at a much smaller sampling time compared to samples taken during the Camp Fire. Analysis of the air samples taken both stationary during the Camp Fire and mobile during an experimental fire show the successful operation of our sampler in a fire environment.     

Optimization of the Resources Management in Fighting Wildfires

Wildfires lead to important economic, social, and environmental losses, especially in areas of Mediterranean climate where they are of a high intensity and frequency. Over the past 30 years there has been a dramatic surge in the development and use of fire spread models. However, given the chaotic nature of environmental systems, it is very difficult to develop real-time fire-extinguishing models. This article proposes a method of optimizing the performance of wildfire fighting resources such that losses are kept to a minimum. The optimization procedure includes discrete simulation algorithms and Bayesian optimization methods for discrete and continuous problems (simulated annealing and Bayesian global optimization). Fast calculus algorithms are applied to provide optimization outcomes in short periods of time such that the predictions of the model and the real behavior of the fire, combat resources, and meteorological conditions are similar. In addition, adaptive algorithms take into account the chaotic behavior of wildfire so that the system can be updated with data corresponding to the real situation to obtain a new optimum solution. The application of this method to the Northwest Forest of Madrid (Spain) is also described. This application allowed us to check that it is a helpful tool in the decision-making process.