COMPARISON OF STOCHASTIC AND DETERMINISTIC DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING FOR RESERVOIR OPERATING RULE GENERATION1

ABSTRACT: Two dynamic programming models — one deterministic and one stochastic — that may be used to generate reservoir operating rules are compared. The deterministic model (DPR) consists of an algorithm that cycles through three components: a dynamic program, a regression analysis, and a simulation. In this model, the correlation between the general operating rules, defined by the regression analysis and evaluated in the simulation, and the optimal deterministic operation defined by the dynamic program is increased through an iterative process. The stochastic dynamic program (SDP) describes streamflows with a discrete lag-one Markov process. To test the usefulness of both models in generating reservoir operating rules, real-time reservoir operation simulation models are constructed for three hydrologically different sites. The rules generated by DPR and SDP are then applied in the operation simulation model and their performance is evaluated. For the test cases, the DPR generated rules are more effective in the operation of medium to very large reservoirs and the SDP generated rules are more effective for the operation of small reservoirs.     

广州轨道交通三号线高速行驶条件下对安全限界的影响研究

给出了轨道交通车辆横向偏移量的计算方法 ,并应用列车 -线路动力耦合模型 ,分析了广州地铁三号线的安全限界变化问题。确定了当前按 80km/h行车速度设计的建筑限界能满足 13 0km/h行车速度的要求 ,限界尺寸不需改动可保证列车运行安全平稳     

湖北省近期土地利用变化的遥感分析

土地利用，覆盖变化研究是全球变化研究的前沿和热点之一。采用遥感、GIS一体化技术．利用1989～1990年和1999～2000年获取的陆地资源卫星图像，建立了湖北省近10年来两个不同时期的同比例尺土地利用动态变化数据库，并对变化的时空特征进行了分析。结果表明，耕地减少了0．68％，林地减少了0．18％，各类建设用地总计增加了。7．92％．水域面积增加的幅度为3．01％。土地利用与土地覆盖变化的转型主要发生于上述4类之中．尤其是耕地与水域相互之间的转变比较频繁。动态度计算表明，土地利用变化最快的区域均处于大中城市及其周边地区；江汉平原、鄂东的大部分地区及鄂西的宜昌．土地利用变化较快；鄂西山区绝大部分、大别山区部分县及鄂东南幕阜山区的通山县，土地利用变化不大。     

区域水战略方案选优的动态组合评价模型研究

水安全危机是人类进入新世纪以来在生存及发展方面所面临的最严重挑战之一。研究科学合理的水安全战略成为区域可持续发展的重大课题。针对区域水战略问题涉及众多因素且各因素之间动态关联的特点，提出了基于水战略方案优选的兼容度极大化动态组合评价模型（CMM—DCEM），并将其成功地应用于我国广东省北江下游及其三角洲地区水安全战略方案优选评价。评价结果及模型基于不确定性的敏感性分析结果证明：CMM—DCEM实现了主、客观赋权方法以及单一评价模型的融合，使用实码加速遗传算法求解目标函数，克服了传统的组合评价方法计算繁琐的不足，评价过程更加科学合理。     

Vulnerability assessment of sea-level rise in Viti Levu, Fiji Islands

Fiji is expected to come under increasing pressure and risk from various threats resulting from climate change and sea-level rise (SLR). Fiji consists of 332 islands and thus has a predominant and large coastline. Viti Levu is the largest and most important of the islands, harboring Fiji’s capital city and most of the major towns concentrated around its coast. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the extent of possible sea-level rise using GIS, and to identify high-risk locations. Potential sea level rise was shown graphically as an output to determine where inundation or flooding would take place. This analysis allowed important areas facing risk to be highlighted for future action. Flooding/inundation can be classified into two kinds: ‘permanent inundation’, which is the result of sea-level rise with tide; and ‘temporary flooding’, also including occasional storm surge events. The inundated area was displayed under different projections and quantified. The results produced output maps showing the distribution of inundation/flooding around the island of Viti Levu as well as the extent of flooding. Six scenarios for sea-level rise were used (0.09, 0.18, 0.48, 0.50, 0.59, 0.88 m). Six scenarios for storm surge were used with return intervals of 1, 2, 5, 10, 25, 50 years. High risk and priority locations are identified as Fiji’s capital Suva, the major tourist center and arrival port of Nadi, and Fiji’s second city Lautoka. Future action, adaptation and response strategies in these identified locations must occur to reduce risk from climate change.     

Evolution of a Mediterranean Coastal Zone: Human Impacts on the Marine Environment of Cape Creus

This study presents an integrated analysis of the evolution of the marine environment and the human uses in Cape Creus, a Mediterranean coastal area where intense commercial fisheries and recreational uses have coexisted over the last fifty years. The investigation synthesizes the documented impacts of human activities on the marine environment of Cap de Creus and integrates them with new data. In particular, the evolution of vulnerable, exploited species is used to evaluate the fishing impacts. The effects of area protection through the establishment of a marine reserve in the late 1990s and the potential climate change impacts are also considered. The evolution of the human uses is marked by the increasing socioeconomic importance of recreational activities (which affect species and habitats) in detriment to artisanal and red coral fisheries (which principally affect at a species level). Overall, populations of sedentary, vulnerable exploited species, hard sessile benthic invertebrates, and ecologically fragile habitats, such as seagrass meadows, the coralligenous and infralittoral algal assemblages have been the most negatively impacted by anthropogenic activities. Albeit human uses currently constitute the largest negative impact on the marine environment of Cap de Creus, climate change is emerging as a key factor that could have considerable implications for the marine environment and tourism activities. The establishment of the marine reserve appears to have had little socioeconomic impact, but there is some evidence that it had some positive biological effects on sedentary, littoral fishes. Results demonstrate that the declaration of a marine reserve alone does not guarantee the sustainability of marine resources and habitats but should be accompanied with an integrated coastal management plan.     

构建人类命运共同体、应对气候变化与生态文明建设

全球气候变化给人类社会文明带来严峻挑战,需要人类社会采取共同措施和行动积极应对。应对全球气候变化是当今世界最能体现人类共同命运的领域,深度参与并积极推动全球气候治理体系改革和建设是中国推动构建人类命运共同体的重要实践,也是生态文明理论和实践的重要方面。应对气候变化是我国生态文明建设的重要内容和内在要求;以共同价值理念构建人类命运共同体,凝聚各国力量携手合作应对全球气候变化,是全球生态文明建设和构建人类命运共同体的具体实践,也为应对全球气候变化提供了良好载体和国际平台。文章通过分析可知,应对气候变化、生态文明建设与构建人类命运共同体三者之间,呈现出相互促进、和谐共生的"三位一体"特征;人与自然共生的生命共同体是前提条件,人类的任何实践活动都要以自然生态系统为基础和前提;人类命运共同体在整合各国力量方面,为生态文明建设提供了社会基础;生态文明包容各国文明,凝聚价值共识,成为生命共同体和人类命运共同体的价值导向。中国倡导人类命运共同体理念,是全球生态文明和人类命运共同体的积极倡导者、推动者和践行者,既为应对全球气候变化提供了价值基础,也提供了强有力的实践支撑;应对气候变化是全球生态文明建设和人类命运共同体构建的生动实践。因此,加强生态文明建设和构建人类命运共同体,为全球应对气候变化提供了理论基础和国际平台,也将为全球可持续发展贡献中国智慧和中国案例。     

O3-BAC深度处理工艺中细菌群落时空分布及动态变化规律

为弄清饮用水O₃-BAC深度处理工艺过程中细菌群落的时空分布和动态变化规律,本研究以我国南方某O₃-BAC深度处理工艺水厂为研究对象,采用NovaSeq6000高通量测序技术对夏季和冬季各工艺单元出水及滤砂和活性炭生物膜等细菌群落进行解析.结果表明,出厂水pH、浊度、COD_Mn、菌落总数等指标均满足《生活饮用水卫生标准》（GB5749-2006）的要求.夏季细菌群落多样性明显高于冬季,活性炭生物膜的细菌群落多样性高于滤砂生物膜;混凝沉淀、臭氧化和消毒是影响细菌群落多样性的主要工艺单元.水样和生物膜样品绝对优势菌门均为变形菌门（Proteobacteria）,且主要菌门组成大体相同,但细菌群落门水平相对丰度存在一定的时空差异,属水平上差异则更为明显.此外,检测到的条件致病菌属主要包括芽孢杆菌属（Bacillus）、不动杆菌属（Acinetobacter）、假单胞菌属（Pseudomonas）和分支杆菌属（Mycobacterium）,且其所占核心微生物OTUs数目不受季节性影响.水温和生物可降解溶解性有机碳（BDOC）是显著影响细菌群落分布的主要水质参数.以上研究结果表明,O₃-BAC深度处理工艺过程中细菌群落具有时空变化特性,并可为饮用水微生物安全保障提供支撑.     

近14年西北地区甲醛柱浓度的时空变化研究

基于臭氧监测仪（OMI）卫星反演数据,对2005~2018年西北4省区域大气甲醛柱浓度数据进行提取及分析,探讨其时空变化特征及影响因素.结果表明：在时间变化上,14a甲醛柱浓度整体呈先上升后下降的波动变化趋势,夏秋季显著高于冬春季,且冬季均值略高于春季.在空间分布上,甲醛柱浓度自西向东、自北向南逐渐升高,高值区集中于陕西和甘肃东南部及青海西南部;低值区集中于宁夏、青海和甘肃的西北部;稳定性呈现出东部分散、西部集聚、差异显著的分布格局.影响甲醛柱浓度变化的因素包括自然和人为因素,自然因素中,甲醛柱浓度受地形影响显著,与风向、气温均呈现显著正相关;人为因素中,甲醛柱浓度与人口密度、地区生产总值、工业废气排放量及建筑房屋竣工面积均表现出正相关关系,与工业废气排放量的相关度最高.大气中甲醛分子与气溶胶粒子二者间呈显著正相关关系,这进一步说明甲醛浓度受到了诸多因素的综合影响,但气溶胶粒子、气温及工业废气的排放是主导因素.     

Influence of floc dynamic protection layer on alleviating ultrafiltration membrane fouling induced by humic substances

Cake layer formation is inevitable over time for ultrafiltration (UF) membrane-based drinking water treatment. Although the cake layer is always considered to cause membrane fouling, it can also act as a “dynamic protection layer”, as it further adsorbs pollutants and dramatically reduces their chance of getting to the membrane surface. Here, the UF membrane fouling performance was investigated with pre-deposited loose flocs in the presence of humic acid (HA). The results showed that the floc dynamic protection layer played an important role in removing HA. The higher the solution pH, the more negative the floc charge, resulting in lower HA removal efficiency due to the electrostatic repulsion and large pore size of the floc layer. With decreasing solution pH, a positively charged floc dynamic protection layer was formed, and more HA molecules were adsorbed. The potential reasons were ascribed to the smaller floc size, greater positive charge, and higher roughness of the floc layer. However, similar membrane fouling performance was also observed for the negative and positive floc dynamic protection layers due to their strong looseness characteristics. In addition, the molecular weight (MW) distribution of HA also played an important role in UF membrane fouling behavior. For the small MW HA molecules, the chance of forming a loose cake layer was high with a negatively charged floc dynamic protection layer, while for the large MW HA molecules it was high with a positively charged floc dynamic protection layer. As a result, slight UF membrane fouling was induced.