体育馆中人员安全疏散的仿真分析

针对现今公共活动中的人群踩踏事故频发问题,应用计算机仿真技术研究紧急情况下建筑物中人群逃生规律及设施优化方法。设置人员体质、移动余值、出口逃生条件等因素,扩展元胞自动机(CA)行人流模型。利用Matlab语言实现可视化模拟。对莱阳市某体育馆进行人流疏散模拟,分析得到其安全设施的最佳设定参数,实现优化目的。结果表明:该体育馆仿真疏散完成总时间为103.5 s,可引发踩踏事故的疏散危险期长达49.0 s,疏散危险期长度为判断踩踏事故发生可能性的重要指标;出口宽度、数量均与疏散时间呈负相关,且均存在疏散能力饱和点。据此提出将宽度改建为2.5 m、数量增加到6个的优化方案,此方案疏散危险期为9.0 s,疏散总时间缩短到33.5 s。     

Integrated Modeling of Water Supply and Demand under Management Options and Climate Change Scenarios in Chifeng City,China

Water resource management is becoming increasingly challenging in northern China because of the rapid increase in water demand and decline in water supply due to climate change. We provide a case study demonstrating the importance of integrated watershed management in sustaining water resources in Chifeng City, northern China. We examine the consequences of various climate change scenarios and adaptive management options on water supply by integrating the Soil and Water Assessment Tool and Water Evaluation and Planning models. We show how integrated modeling is useful in projecting the likely effects of management options using limited information. Our study indicates that constructing more reservoirs can alleviate the current water shortage and groundwater depletion problems. However, this option is not necessarily the most effective measure to solve water supply problems; instead, improving irrigation efficiency and changing cropping structure may be more effective. Furthermore, measures to increase water supply have limited effects on water availability under a continuous drought and a dry‐and‐warm climate scenario. We conclude that the combined measure of reducing water demand and increasing supply is the most effective and practical solution for the water shortage problems in the study area.     

Modeling the Effects of Extreme Drought on Pollutant Transport Processes in the Yangtze River Estuary

Water resources in the Yangtze River Estuary (YRE), which is the vital water supply for Shanghai, decreased by approximately 2.45 Gm³ in 2006, the second‐worst recorded drought year. A numerical model was developed to investigate the effects of this extreme drought on pollutant transport processes in the YRE. The model was calibrated against observations and displayed good agreement. Residence time, a critical hydrodynamic indicator, was implemented to indicate pollutant transport processes. Numerical experiments were conducted to examine the possibly drought‐induced influences. The model results demonstrated that the influences on pollutant transport processes varied spatially and temporally, and these influences could partly explain the observed temporal and spatial variations of total nitrate in 2006. The area most susceptible to drought is in the north branch with 2‐11 days' extension of residence time. As the drought occurred in both the high and normal water periods, its influences were more significant during the normal water period with saltwater intrusion into the north branch. The drought also introduced a pollutant transport lag in timescale of approximately five days by diminishing the seaward advection flux with freshwater discharge. In 2006, the magnified tidal influence during the drought contributed more than usual to structuring pollutant transport, as the pollutant transport processes were intensely associated with tidal flow and tidal cycle.     

Regional Blue and Green Water Balances and Use by Selected Crops in the U.S.

The availability of freshwater is a prerequisite for municipal development and agricultural production, especially in the arid and semiarid portions of the western United States (U.S.). Agriculture is the leading user of water in the U.S. Agricultural water use can be partitioned into green (derived from rainfall) and blue water (irrigation). Blue water can be further subdivided by source. In this research, we develop a hydrologic balance by 8‐Digit Hydrologic Unit Code using a combination of Soil and Water Assessment Tool simulations and available human water use estimates. These data are used to partition agricultural groundwater usage by sustainability and surface water usage by local source or importation. These predictions coupled with reported agricultural yield data are used to predict the virtual water contained in each ton of corn, wheat, sorghum, and soybeans produced and its source. We estimate that these four crops consume 480 km³ of green water annually and 23 km³ of blue water, 12 km³ of which is from groundwater withdrawal. Regional trends in blue water use from groundwater depletion highlight heavy usage in the High Plains, and small pockets throughout the western U.S. This information is presented to inform water resources debate by estimating the cost of agricultural production in terms of water regionally. This research illustrates the variable water content of the crops we consume and export, and the source of that water.     

Development and Evaluation of Bankfull Hydraulic Geometry Relationships for the Physiographic Regions of the United States

Bankfull hydraulic geometry relationships are used to estimate channel dimensions for streamflow simulation models, which require channel geometry data as input parameters. Often, one nationwide curve is used across the entire United States (U.S.) (e.g., in Soil and Water Assessment Tool), even though studies have shown that the use of regional curves can improve the reliability of predictions considerably. In this study, regional regression equations predicting bankfull width, depth, and cross‐sectional area as a function of drainage area are developed for the Physiographic Divisions and Provinces of the U.S. and compared to a nationwide equation. Results show that the regional curves at division level are more reliable than the nationwide curve. Reliability of the curves depends largely on the number of observations per region and how well the sample represents the population. Regional regression equations at province level yield even better results than the division‐level models, but because of small sample sizes, the development of meaningful regression models is not possible in some provinces. Results also show that drainage area is a less reliable predictor of bankfull channel dimensions than bankfull discharge. It is likely that the regional curves can be improved using multiple regression models to incorporate additional explanatory variables.     

Seasonal and Regional Patterns in Performance for a Baltic Sea Drainage Basin Hydrologic Model

This study evaluates the ability of the Catchment SIMulation (CSIM) hydrologic model to describe seasonal and regional variations in river discharge over the entire Baltic Sea drainage basin (BSDB) based on 31 years of monthly simulation from 1970 through 2000. To date, the model has been successfully applied to simulate annual fluxes of water from the catchments draining into the Baltic Sea. Here, we consider spatiotemporal bias in the distribution of monthly modeling errors across the BSDB since it could potentially reduce the fidelity of predictions and negatively affect the design and implementation of land‐management strategies. Within the period considered, the CSIM model accurately reproduced the annual flows across the BSDB; however, it tended to underpredict the proportion of discharge during high‐flow periods (i.e., spring months) and overpredict during the summer low flow periods. While the general overpredictions during summer periods are spread across all the subbasins of the BSDB, the underprediction during spring periods is seen largely in the northern regions. By implementing a genetic algorithm calibration procedure and/or seasonal parameterization of subsurface water flows for a subset of the catchments modeled, we demonstrate that it is possible to improve the model performance albeit at the cost of increased parameterization and potential loss of parsimony.     

Modeling of the venting of an untempered system under runaway conditions

The prediction of the consequences of a runaway reaction in terms of temperature and pressure evolution in a reactor requires the knowledge of the reaction kinetics, thermodynamics and fluid dynamics inside the vessel during venting. Such phenomena and their interaction are complex and yet to be fully understood, especially reactions where the pressure generation is totally or partially due to the production of permanent gases (gassy or hybrid systems). Moreover, these phenomena cannot be easily determined by laboratory scale experiments. In this paper, a dynamic model developed to simulate the behavior of an untempered reacting mixture during venting is presented. The model provides the temperature, pressure and mass inventory profiles before and during venting. A sensitivity study of the model was performed. This modeling work provides some insight regarding the interpretation of the data obtained from untempered system venting experiments. The outcome of this work contribute to improving the design of emergency relief systems for hybrid and gassy systems, where significant progress is still to be made in the experimental and modeling areas.     

Consequence modeling of a real rupture of toluene storage tank

Chemicals used in paint industry are generally comprised of toxic and inflammable substances; they may cause serious problems for humans and environment if safety conditions are neglected. In 2012, rupture of a toluene tank in a paint factory in Iran claimed lives of two workers near the tank. The present study is formulated in order to model the incident. The results showed the area prone to flash fire occurrence and extension. Furthermore, radiation was measured in terms of distance to the tank. A bund wall is also assumed around the vessel in order to determine its influence on evaporation in flash fire area, radiation, and maximum concentration of vapor cloud. The results provided important hints on minimum and required distance of electrical equipment or electrical enclosure (PLC) installation from vessels as well as suitable distance between the vessels. Finally, preventive recommendations were proposed to reduce the risk of potential accidents.     

大型海啸灾害后重伤员批量护理风险建模研究

大型海啸灾害等自然灾害的发生产生了大量重伤员,所以研究大型海啸灾害后重伤员的批量护理风险建模极为重要。通过大型海啸灾害救治流程预案启动和重伤员批量护理实施方法两部分研究大型海啸灾害后重伤员批量护理方法,并提出通过前馈控制性管理防范护理风险。提升护理风险管理的科学性以及全面性。通过护理风险防范预案提升重伤员护理质量将大型海啸灾害后批量重伤员护理风险降至最低。通过护理风险防范预案提升重伤员护理质量等降低重伤员批量护理风险的措施,使得大型海啸灾害后的急救工作可快捷有序完成,赢得重伤员抢救的黄金时间。     

数学模拟好氧颗粒污泥的形成及水力剪切强度对颗粒粒径的影响

以生物膜数学模型和活性污泥数学模型为基础,建立好氧颗粒污泥一维数学模型,并模拟营养物质的去除、颗粒粒径变化、反应器周期表现以及好氧颗粒污泥内DO和菌群分布.模拟有机物SS浓度和出水NH4+-N浓度逐渐降低,在大约50 d左右达到稳定,50 d后模拟出水浓度分别<25 mg.L-1和<1.5 mg.L-1.模拟出水NO3--N浓度随着粒径的增加呈现降低趋势.当颗粒粒径由模拟30 d时的1.1 mm增加到100 d时的2.5 mm,颗粒污泥缺氧区面积相应增加,总氮(TN)的去除率由不到10%增加到91%左右,最终模拟出水NO3--N浓度降低到<3 mg.L-1.在好氧颗粒污泥系统内,由于氧气传质阻力,模拟颗粒污泥外层DO浓度高而内层浓度低,颗粒内可以发生同时硝化反硝化,且好氧颗粒污泥内DO特征随时间而发生变化.在好氧初期,好氧颗粒污泥代谢活性高,模拟DO传质深度大约为100～200μm;而在好氧末期,模拟DO传质深度为800μm.模拟自养菌主要分布在DO浓度高的颗粒外层,异养菌分布在整个颗粒.当水力剪切系数kde由0.25(m.d)-1逐渐增加到5(m.d)-1时,模拟颗粒平衡粒径依次由3.5 mm左右减小到大约1.8 mm.在不同水力剪切强度下模拟颗粒污泥生长特征相似,其平衡状态下粒径随曝气强度的增加而减小,可以通过控制曝气强度来控制好氧颗粒污泥的平衡粒径.