Investigation of multiple domino scenarios caused by fragments

A model of multiple domino scenarios and the risk of the domino effect, which is a sequential chain escalating from the primary unit to the last unit, is presented in this paper. The trajectories of fragments from all units, the ground distribution of projectiles, and the risk of the sequential chain of the domino effect were calculated using Monte Carlo simulations. The results showed that the range affected by the fragments from each tank included the other tanks, meaning that fragments from one tank could hit the other tanks and cause multiple accidents, and that the sequential chain of the domino effect could indeed happen. The distributions of ground impacts showed that tank fragments were projected over long distances, up to 1200 m from the source. The spatial distribution of the kinetic energy at ground impact for tank fragments was also obtained. Moreover, the magnitudes of the probabilities of the primary, secondary, third, and fourth accidents in the domino chain were respectively about 10⁻⁷, 10⁻¹¹, 10⁻¹⁵, and 10⁻¹⁹. These results showed that for neighboring domino effect units in the same accident chain, the risk of the most recent domino effect was 10⁴ times that of the following domino effect.     

Performance evaluation of reverse logistics enterprise – an agent-based simulation approach

Reverse logistics (RL) has been applied in many industries and sectors since its conception. Unlike forward logistics, retracing consumer goods from the point of consumption to the point of inception is not a well-studied process. It involves many uncertainties such as time, quality and quantity of returns. The returned products can be remanufactured, have parts harvested, or be disposed safely. It is important to implement these activities in a cost-effective manner. The aim of this research is to measure the performance of the RL enterprise with the help of an agent-based simulation model. The major entities in the RL network are considered as Agents that can act independently. There are several different agents: collector agent, sorting-cum-reuse agent, remanufacturing agent, recycler agent, supplier agent and distributor agent. The individual performances of the agents are measured and recommendations are given to improve their performance, leading to the enhancement of the total performance of the RL enterprise. The approach is applied to a case study involving cell phone remanufacturing.     

系统动力学应用于中国区域绿色发展政策仿真的方法学综述

绿色发展是我国"十三五"时期五大发展理念之一,是解决我国发展与保护矛盾的根本途径。系统动力学是模拟宏观社会经济发展趋势和政策效力的常用分析工具,本文对系统动力学在中国区域绿色发展政策仿真中的应用进行了梳理。研究显示:系统动力学应用的区域范围方面,该方法全面应用于从国家直至县域等各个尺度的区域绿色发展研究,区域绿色发展通常被分解为经济、社会、资源、环境等子系统;应用的主要领域方面,水土资源、能源、水环境、固废治理、绿色产业等领域应用较多,大气环境、绿色消费等领域应用相对较少;方法的改进和完善方面,软系统分析法、各类优化方法和地理信息系统与系统动力学的集成应用日益普遍。文末根据文献梳理情况,提出未来应在决策变量设计、历史数据挖掘、环境系统对经济系统的反馈等方面进行方法改进。     

Institutional Constraints on Cost‐Effective Water Management: Selenium Contamination in Colorado's Lower Arkansas River Valley

Ground and surface water selenium (Se) contamination is problematic throughout the world, leading to harmful impacts on aquatic life, wildlife, livestock, and humans. A groundwater reactive transport model was applied to a regional‐scale irrigated groundwater system in the Lower Arkansas River Basin in southeastern Colorado to identify management practices that remediate Se contamination. The system has levels of surface water and groundwater Se concentrations exceeding the respective chronic standard and guidelines. We evaluate potential solutions by combining the transport model with an assessment of the cost to employ those practices. We use a framework common in economics and engineering fields alike, the Pareto frontier, to show the impact of four different best management practices on the tradeoffs between Se and cost objectives. We then extend that analysis to include institutional constraints that affect the economic feasibility associated with each practice. Results indicate that although water‐reducing strategies have the greatest impact on Se, they are the hardest for farmers to implement given constraints common to western water rights institutions. Therefore, our analysis shows that estimating economic and environmental tradeoffs, as is typically done with a Pareto frontier, will not provide an accurate picture of choices available to farmers where institutional constraints should also be considered.     

Does the Temporal Resolution of Precipitation Input Influence the Simulated Hydrological Components Employing the SWAT Model?

This study aimed to evaluate the influence of sub‐daily precipitation time steps on model performance and hydrological components by applying the Green and Ampt infiltration method using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Precipitation was measured at a resolution of 0.1 mm and aggregated to 5‐, 15‐, 30‐, and 60‐min time steps. Daily discharge data over a 10‐year period were used to calibrate and validate the model. Following a global sensitivity analysis, relevant parameters were optimized through an automatic calibration procedure using SWAT‐CUP for each time step. Daily performance statistics were almost equal among all four time steps (NSE ≈ 0.47). Discharge mainly consisted of groundwater flow (55%) and tile flow (42%), in reasonable proportions for the investigated catchment. In conclusion, model outputs were almost identical, showing simulations responded nearly independently of the chosen precipitation time step. This held true for (1) the selection of sensitive parameters, (2) performance statistics, (3) the shape of the hydrographs, and (4) flow components. However, a scenario analysis revealed that the precipitation time step becomes important when saturated hydraulic conductivities are low and curve numbers are high. The study suggests that there is no need in using precipitation time steps <1 h for lowland catchments dominated by soils with a low surface runoff potential if daily flow values are being considered. Editor's note : This paper is part of the featured series on SWAT Applications for Emerging Hydrologic and Water Quality Challenges. See the February 2017 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

经口摄入土壤多溴联苯醚生物可给性变化及影响因素的体外消化模拟

误食土壤是污染物(如多溴联苯醚)人体(主要是儿童)暴露的重要途径,人体消化道内污染物吸收的生物可给性是针对此种暴露方式进行定量风险评估的有效途径之一.本研究采用体外消化实验模拟3种不同有机碳含量的天然土壤中典型多溴联苯醚(BDE-28、BDE-47、BDE-99和BDE-153)在胃和小肠消化液中的释放,验证部分消化释放的多溴联苯醚因消化残留固相表面的再吸附造成低估实际生物可给性,并通过不同水土比的拟合计算予以校正.结果表明,校正后的消化率普遍高于校正前;就不同土样而言,BDE-28、BDE-47、BDE-99和BDE-153在不同初始暴露浓度条件下平均提升比例范围分别为14.3%~42.3%、11.1%~32.1%、4.9%~12.3%和0.0%~7.7%.因此,未经校正的消化率会显著低估PBDEs消化道内的生物可给性,尤其是低溴代组分及PBDEs初始浓度较高或高TOC含量的土样.校正后BDE-28、BDE-47、BDE-99和BDE-153的消化率分别维持在21.9%~54.7%、18.8%~43.1%、13.4%~27.2%和9.3%~19.9%.此外,PBDEs的消化率与其辛醇-水分配系数的对数lg KOW呈显著负相关;而与土壤TOC含量及PBDEs初始暴露浓度的相关性并不显著,尤其是高溴代组分.     

矿区植被恢复方式对土壤微生物和酶活性的影响

矿区废弃地生态退化形势严峻,生态修复已成为矿区可持续发展的主要措施,土壤微生物和酶活性可作为评价土壤恢复质量的敏感因子.本研究将以山西省安太堡煤矿复垦区作为对象,分析植被恢复方式对土壤微生物和酶活的影响.结果表明,不同植被方式对土壤理化特征、参与氮代谢的3类菌群(固氮菌、硝化细菌和反硝化细菌)和4种酶活性(蔗糖酶、过氧化氢酶、脲酶和多酚氧化酶活)均有显著影响.土壤总氮含量与固氮菌和硝化细菌数量均显著相关,而与反硝化细菌不相关.多酚氧化酶活性与有机碳和总氮含量之间为负相关,而其它3种酶与有机碳和总氮之间呈正相关.通过主成分分析计算综合肥力指标,刺槐-油松混交林土壤综合肥力指标最高,而未复垦综合肥力指标最低.可见,刺槐-油松混交林是晋西北干旱区矿区复垦较为适宜的植被恢复模式.     

Mitigation of eutrophication caused by wastewater discharge: A simulation-based approach

Mitigation of eutrophication, intensified by excessive nutrient load discharge in wastewaters regulated by restrictive legal requirements, remains one of today’s most important global problems. Despite implementation of the Water Framework Directive, the Urban Wastewater Directive and the HELCOM recommendations, the actual condition of surface water is still not satisfactory. In response to the above, the study presents an alternative approach for surface water protection against eutrophication based on the selection of appropriate nutrient removal technologies. An activated sludge model simulation was used to enable the identification of environmentally justified nutrient removal systems with lowest eutrophication potential of treated wastewater conditioned by bioavailable nutrient forms content. Based on the outcome of the study, the 3-stage Bardenpho system was identified as the most efficient for bioavailable phosphorus removal, while the Johannesburg system proved to have the highest efficiency for bioavailable nitrogen removal. The proposed eutrophication mitigation approach underlines the need for a reconsideration of current legal regulations which ignore nutrient bioavailability and key eutrophication limiting factors.     

AAO工艺低氧条件下的运行及其模拟

利用厌氧-缺氧-好氧(AAO)工艺探讨了在好氧池低溶解氧(DO)浓度条件下的水质指标变化情况.结果表明,当好氧池DO浓度从2.00 mg·L~(-1)降低到1.00 mg·L~(-1)和0.50 mg·L~(-1)时,系统仍然具有良好的除磷脱氮效果,出水水质指标均满足我国《城镇污水处理厂污染物排放标准》(GB 18918-2002)中的一级A标准.在此基础上,基于Bio Win 4.1软件建立了AAO工艺的活性污泥模型,对模型参数进行了灵敏度分析,并利用动态模拟对模型参数中的聚磷菌吸收乙酸或丙酸的聚羟基烷酸(PHA)产率系数(YP/PHA,seq)、聚磷菌好氧氧化PHA的储磷率(YP/PHA,aerobic)、氨氧化菌的最大单位生长速率(μmax,A)和亚硝酸盐氧化菌的最大单位生长速率(μmax,N)进行了校验.此外,对系统的曝气能耗进行了模拟评估,结果表明,与好氧池DO浓度为2.00 mg·L~(-1)时相比,好氧池DO浓度为1.00 mg·L~(-1)和0.50 mg·L~(-1)时的空气流量可分别节省23.8%和38.1%,氧转移效率可分别提高7.2%和11.7%.     

不同国家基于健康风险的土壤环境基准比较研究与启示

20世纪90年代以来,许多发达国家颁布了基于健康风险的土壤环境标准及基准背景技术文件,为发展中国家启动标准制订和开展基准研究提供了重要的方法学参考.然而,由于各国在环境立法框架、基准推导过程、环境气候特征、土壤类型、人群生活方式与习惯等方面的不同,导致其基准名称、基准功能、保护受体以及基准取值等存在较大的差异.本文在综述基于健康风险的土壤环境基准科学内涵与基本特征的基础上,对不同国家场地土壤环境基准的名称、功能及基准值的差异进行了比较研究,从土地利用类型划分、暴露情景和暴露途径设定、致癌物可接受风险水平选择以及人体暴露参数确定等4个方面,对不同国家制定场地土壤环境基准的关键技术和影响因素进行了总结分析,探讨了借鉴国外经验考虑区域差异制定我国土壤环境基准的对策与方略,并指出了当前我国制定场地土壤环境基准和标准面临的困难和挑战.