成都入境旅游客源市场时空演变规律研究

入境旅游客源市场时空演变规律的研究是入境旅游市场研究的一个热点.依据成都市2000-2008年入境旅游市场的相关统计数据,通过分析亲景度和竞争态在时间和空间上的演变,揭示了成都入境旅游客源市场的时空演变规律.研究发现,泰国是成都最重要的入境客源市场,但自从2004年以来亲蓉度有所下降.面对入境客源市场空间分布比较均匀的状况,市场关注的重点应放在市场竞争态有所衰退的市场,以确保整体市场的稳步攀升.     

An energetic perspective on the relationship between disturbance and ecosystem productivity

Previous ecological models for disturbance from energetic perspectives have focused on destructive pulses by which storages in a system are quickly drained during disturbance events and recovered thereafter. However, considering the wide range of disturbance intensities, frequencies, and durations in nature, disturbance effects on ecosystem energetics would be better understood by diversifying the disturbance effects on specific system configurations or energy pathways. Based on two hypotheses, we built simulation models of the variable disturbance-productivity relationships observed in a freshwater aquatic microcosm study. First, we hypothesized that disturbances will differentially alter the intrinsic rates of energy pathways in a system. Second, we hypothesized that there is a disturbance threshold where response of the intrinsic rates changes abruptly. Simulation results showed variable patterns of gross primary productivity (GPP) during the disturbance and post-disturbance periods under the diverse scenarios of disturbance effects on the intrinsic rates. Simulation results confirmed that the second hypothesis (i.e., disturbance threshold) was essential to achieve a U-shaped or peaked disturbance-productivity relationship. We evaluated the models by comparing them with the results of the microcosm tests, and suggested possible mechanisms of the variable disturbance-productivity relationships by varying parameters related to the disturbance effects on the intrinsic rates and the disturbance thresholds.     

液化烃罐区设备可靠性研究

针对液化烃罐区缺少有效事故数据的现状,采用了基于模糊分析的可靠性方法来研 究罐区设备整体可靠性,通过划分功能模块使用模糊数描述各模块可靠性,然后求出设备整 体可靠性.对于单一设备,通过监测其系统的状态参数,采用一种利用设备状态信息进行可 靠性分析的方法,通过系统参数漂移量的统计分析,推导出基于参数漂移量的可靠度分析模型...     

基于供应链和可拓决策的食品安全预警模型及其应用

为提高食品安全预警能力,改善食品安全状况,以食品原料供应环境质量、生产加工、流通加工、销售食品质量、食品安全管理与监测作为食品安全预警的关键因素,提出一种基于供应链和可拓决策的食品安全预警模型。从供应链的角度建立食品安全预警指标体系,确定食品安全的经典域、节域和预警对象;建立食品安全预警模型并给出食品安全预警的方法和步骤;结合A省2010年的食品安全数据,定量评价A省食品安全预警状态,结合模型评价结果进行单指标和综合安全预警分析,验证该模型的合理性和适用性。研究结果表明:针对食品安全状况与预警特征,运用基于供应链和可拓决策的食品安全预警模型,能够对食品安全状态进行快速判断并有效预警。     

基于SPAMS探究南京市秋季大气中含草酸重金属颗粒的混合状态

草酸是大气环境中重要的二羧酸,可以与多种非吸湿性的多价金属形成草酸-金属络合物,并对生物健康和大气环境产生重要的影响. 众所周知,光化学反应可以促进草酸的形成. 然而,考虑到草酸与重金属（Heavy Metals, HMs）潜在的络合反应,草酸与HMs颗粒的混合态目前尚不完全清楚. 本研究利用单颗粒气溶胶质谱仪对南京市大气中含有草酸的HMs （Fe、Cu、Pb、Zn） 的粒径和化学组成进行了分析. 结果表明,与采样期间获得的整体颗粒相比（17.16%）,HMs中草酸的数分数（Number fractions, Nfs）更高（29.88%）. 草酸在各类HMs中的Nfs值分别为20.84% （Fe）、45.59% （Cu）、37.16% （Pb）、36.51% （Zn）. 此外,草酸与Cu （ r = 0.53 ）、Pb （ r = 0.55 ）和Zn （ r = 0.79 ）之间存在良好的相关性,这可能归因于它们在环境中可以形成草酸-重金属配合物. 值得注意的是,Fe与草酸在白天（r = 0.29）和夜间（r = 0.71）的相关性差异明显,这可能是因为Fe-草酸配合物在白天发生光解和Fe驱动的Fenton反应有关. 此外,气溶胶酸度（Relative acidity, Ra）和相对湿度（Relative humidity, RH）对形成草酸-重金属配合物也有影响. Ra的增强可能抑制草酸-重金属配合物的形成. 当RH > 70%时,RH增大可能促进草酸-重金属配合物的形成. 本研究为评估草酸在HMs中的增强提供了一些参考依据,同时提高了我们对大气环境中存在的草酸汇的认识.     

南四湖水体氮、磷营养盐时空分布特征及营养状态评价

分析了南四湖水体TN和TP的时空变化规律,并采用综合营养状态指数（TSI）对其营养状态进行了评价.结果表明,南四湖水体TN和TP含量分别为2.617 mg·L^-1和0.110 mg·L^-1;空间上各湖区水体TN和TP含量存在显著差异,TN和TP含量均以南阳湖最高,分别为3.830 mg·L^-1和0.192 mg·L^-1,独山湖TN含量（2.106 mg·L^-1）最低,而微山湖TP含量（0.067mg·L^-1）最低;南四湖水体中TN含量的季节差异不显著,但夏季（2.805 mg·L^-1）和春季（3.049 mg·L^-1）明显高于秋季（2.160 mg·L^-1）和冬季（2.452 mg·L^-1）,各湖区TN的季节变化没有一致规律;南四湖及各湖区TP含量具有显著的季节差异,变化趋势均为夏季〉春季〉秋季〉冬季.总体来看,南四湖处于轻度富营养化状态.其中,南阳湖富营养化最严重,处于中度富营养化状态,其它3个湖区均为轻度富营养化.综合分析表明外源污染仍是南四湖污染的主要来源,湖区网箱养殖和围网养殖所产生的污染应引起高度重视.     

考虑抢行行为的恐慌状态人员疏散研究*

为研究恐慌状态下人员抢行行为对整体疏散效果的影响,建立考虑抢行行为的恐慌状态人员疏散元胞自动机模型,基于恐慌情绪算法将人员分为恐慌者和非恐慌者,通过改变恐慌者抢行概率体现抢行行为,并模拟仿真分析初始人员密度、恐慌情绪转化、抢行概率对人员疏散影响,对疏散过程中特殊现象进行分析。研究结果表明:人员密度适中时,抢行行为能够减少恐慌者数量,加快恐慌者转换进程,疏散时间随抢行概率增加而减小,疏散过程中存在恐慌聚集和两端疏散现象。研究结果可为突发事件下人员紧急疏散提供理论支持。     

The effectiveness of state of the environment reporting (SoER) at the local government sphere – a developing country's experience

State of the environment reporting (SoER) is a well-established and widely applied environmental management tool in the South African context. Despite a wealth of knowledge about conducting and preparing SoERs, there is a paucity of research on the effect SoER has had on decision-making at the local government sphere. This study investigated the effect of SoER on decision-making for a sample of municipalities in the Gauteng Province of South Africa. The methodology relied on interviews with key role players, which include the ‘‘environmental function’' as well as ‘‘other functions’' responsible for infrastructure development and planning within the municipalities. The results show that notwithstanding the extensive time and resources spent on SoER, it appears to have had a limited effect on decision-making, especially beyond the environmental function. Recommendations to improve the influence of SoER on decision-making in developing countries include improved clarity on the purpose and home of SoER within municipalities, adequate budget and capacity, and effective cooperative governance both within the municipalities, and with other spheres of government.     

Roles of State Strategy of Adaptation to Climate Change in China

Abstract

For the adverse impacts of climate change, China government should place the problem of adaptation to climate change on the agenda. It is time to institute and implement a state adaptive strategy to reduce the adverse impacts on economy, community and people's health and life by international cooperation and our own endeavor. A state strategy of adaptation to climate change should be closely linked with other current interrelated national strategies, and they should be supplemented and improved by each other. This paper discusses the roles of the state strategy of adaptation to climate change in the state climate change integrative strategy, the environmental protection strategy, and the sustainable development strategy in China. Furthermore, it proposes the main aims of the state adaptive strategy of China.     

Co-orientation of State Wildlife Agency Personnel and Wildlife Management Area Stakeholders Regarding Wildlife Habitat Management Activities in Virginia

Natural resource managers frequently make decisions in the public interest, yet research suggests managers often hold values and attitudes that differ from those of their stakeholders. Applying the co-orientation theory of communication, we contrasted beliefs of Virginia Department of Game and Inland Fisheries managers (n = 77) with those of recreational users (n = 726) of Virginia's wildlife management areas (WMAs). Although managers and users both expressed support for many of the same land management practices, managers generally expressed stronger support. Managers also more accurately predicted WMA users' beliefs on land management, compared to users' predictions of managers' beliefs. Managers and WMA users held different views about timber harvesting, which suggests it is an area with high potential for controversy and needs improved communication efforts. Frequency-based and statistical co-orientation analysis yielded different, and potentially misleading, results; thus, policy-makers should use caution when interpreting communicative situations and designing subsequent public relations efforts.