水库抗旱调度分期特征确定方法研究

为在一定程度上减轻流域干旱损失,国家防汛抗旱总指挥部提出旱限水位的概念,并开展水库抗旱调度,降低干旱影响程度。旱限水位是水库低水位运行的控制性水位,其合理设置对提高区域水资源利用率意义重大,而水文气象特征在年内的阶段性变化要求基于旱限水位的水库管理应适应其变化特征。此次研究提出水库抗旱调度分期的确定方法,采用核主成分分析法提取指标的非线性特征,结合熵权法赋予指标权重后利用Fisher最优分割法对干旱的年内阶段性变化进行划分。以黄河流域刘家峡和小浪底水库为例,分期结果刘家峡水库分3期为:7月至9月,10月至3月,4月至6月;小浪底水库分3期为:7月至10月,11月至3月,4月至6月。     

A methodology for identifying and addressing dead-legs and corrosion issues in a Process Hazard Analysis (PHA)

Identifying dead-legs and related corrosion issues continues to be a challenge in the process industry. Pipeline corrosion has been a factor in several recent incidents involving releases and fires. A review of incident reports and citations over the past ten years indicates that Process Hazard Analysis (PHA) revalidations have been noted for not addressing the hazards of a process including corrosion mechanisms and dead-legs. In order for the hazards to be addressed, they must first be accurately identified in a PHA and documented along with any recommended actions for preventive maintenance. This paper describes a methodology for identifying and addressing dead-legs and related corrosion issues in a PHA that can be used to update corporate PHA procedures to be more robust in preventing corrosion related incidents.     

Alcohol is a predictor of mortality in motor vehicle collisions

IntroductionIt is well recognized that driving while intoxicated increases the probability of a motor-vehicle collision (MVC). The effect of alcohol on the chance of surviving the MVC is less clear. Method: Using data from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) we conducted analyses for the outcome of mortality using alcohol and other variables as predictors. We also selected alcohol positive (AP) and alcohol negative (AN) persons from the same MVC and vehicle to control for confounding characteristics. Results: The odds ratio (OR) for mortality for alcohol positive drivers was 2.57, (p < 0.001 for all the following OR). Other harmful predictive factors were age OR 1.01 per year, vehicle age OR 1.05 per year, male sex OR 1.23, avoidance maneuver OR 1.09, speed related OR 2.89, rollover mechanism OR 2.75, and collision with a fixed object OR 6.70. Protective factors were proper restraint use – OR 0.19 and collision with another moving vehicle, OR 0.21. In the multivariate analysis the OR of mortality for AP vs AN was 1.46. Proper restraint use (OR 0.27) remained protective along with collision with another moving vehicle. When AP and AN persons from the same MVC and the same vehicle were compared, the adjusted OR’s for mortality were 1.46 and 2.08, respectively. Conclusions: Alcohol is an independent predictor of mortality in an MVC. Proper restraint use is the strongest protective factor. This finding allows a more complete understanding of the risks of driving while intoxicated, not only a higher probability of an MVC, but decreased survival once the MVC occurs. Practical Applications: Identification of alcohol as an independent predictor of mortality in an accident may improve risk assessment and influence drivers to avoid driving while intoxicated.     

关帝山八水沟天然植物群落时空梯度的数量分析

在ＤＣＡ排序的基础上，应用排序轴分类法对山西关帝山八水沟景观的天然植物群落进行了数量分类，共划分出７类，效果较好．多元线性回归结果表明ＤＣＡ排序轴与环境因子密切相关．方差分析与多重比较结果表明，结合ＤＣＡ第２与３排序轴的二维排序图反映了群落的时空变异，其中第２排序轴反映了群落在坡向与坡度方面的空间梯度，第３排序轴反映了群落的森林演替、灌丛发育以及各类群落的草本层发育的时间梯度     

基于开发需求的安徽沿江地区生态经济分区

从压力、状态和人类响应3个方面,构建了生态经济分区指标体系,结合经济开发需求的评价结果,以县(市、城区)为基本评价单元,利用主成分分析与系统聚类的方法,根据自上而下的专家定性评估,遵循空间邻近性原则,将安徽沿江地区划分为7个生态经济类型,即:合肥污染防治与城镇生态优化区、巢滁湖泊湿地保护与平原生态农业区、马芜铜宣工业污染防治与城镇生态优化区、宣南生态农业与水土保持区、安庆平原农业与湿地生态保护区、池州森林保育与生态农业区以及皖西水源保护与森林保育区.     

碱性印染废水用于燃煤锅炉烟气脱硫除尘技术

介绍了当前国内利用碱性印染废水进行燃煤锅炉烟气湿法脱硫除尘的技术,并对其进行了技术经济分析。     

淮南矿区井下煤炭自燃火灾因素分析及防治措施

１９９０年以来,淮南矿区１１个矿井共发生自燃火灾４９起,自燃发火率平均为每百万吨习煤量０．５３次。通过对该矿区井下煤炭自燃因素和地质条件及开采中出现的自燃发火原因作了具体分析,从中找出发火规律;并对井下煤层自燃发火采取均压通风和直接灭火做了新的尝试,提出了对井下煤炭自燃防治措施。     

林火管理经济学的研究与探讨——单一可变防火要素的最佳投入

用经济学的观点分析了其它防火要素的投入量不变,仅改变某种可变防火要素的投入时,减灾效益Ｅ、边际减灾效益ＥＭ、平均减灾效益Ｅ／Ｆｉ与单一可变防火要素Ｆｉ的关系。提出了如何采用连际分析的方法确定单一防火要素的最佳投入问题。     

Correspondence analysis of paper recycling society: consumers and paper makers in Japan

Paper passes through many hands. In the present paper, key parts of this cycle in Japan were examined, using questionnaire surveys of households and paper makers. The study aimed to examine the paper makers' strategy for paper production and their attitude to recycling, in comparison with those of the consumers. The study especially focused on toilet paper because consumers have a lot of freedom in purchasing toilet paper. A total of 1242 consumers and 60 paper makers responded. The major findings were as follows. First, we compared the criteria of consumers for purchasing toilet paper with the conjectures of paper makers. Brand, advertisements and the appearance of shopping displays received 60% support from paper makers, but less than 12% of consumers selected these criteria even if we exclude those who do not buy toilet paper or do not have any particular criteria. On the other hand, multiple plies and benefit to the earth were selected by moderate numbers (between 20 and 25%) of consumers, while only 16.77 and 5.69%, respectively of paper makers marked these criteria. Paper makers strongly believe that many retailers sell toilet paper as a loss-leader. By comparing those matters considered important for recycling by consumers with those considered important by makers, it was shown that many makers have a clear awareness of the particular problem, the lack of used paper consumption, in the current paper recycling situation in Japan.     

浙江省生态环境可持续发展评价指标体系的建立

生态环境的可持续发展评价是生态安全与生态建设中的重要内容。本研究应用主成分分析法，收集浙江省1990～2000年的数据，对评价指标进行初步筛选．同时采用德尔斐法进行专家咨询，得到评价指标的分层排序。最后从初选的54个评价指标中，根据主成分分析法、专家咨询法的指标筛选结果，结合有关国家及地方生态环境建设规划，建立了由40个指标组成的浙江省生态环境可持续发展评价指标体系。