Decomposition Analysis of Sectoral Energy Use in Beijing （1981-2005） Using the LMDI Method

This paper aims to identify the main driving force for changes of total primary energy consumption in Beijing during the period of 1981-2005. Sectoral energy use was investigated when regional economic structure changed significantly. The changes of total primary energy consumption in Beijing are decomposed into production effects, structural effects and intensity effects using the additive version of the logarithmic mean Divisia index （LMDI） method. Aggregate decomposition analysis showed that the major contributor of total effect was made by the production effect followed by the intensity effect, and the structural effect was relatively insignificant. The total and production effects were all positive. In contrast, the structural effect and intensity effect were all negative. Sectoral decomposition investigation indicated that the most effective way to slow down the growth rate of total primary energy consumption （TPEC） was to reduce the production of the energy-intensive industrial sectors and improving industrial energy intensity. The results show that in this period, Beijing＇s economy has undergone a transformation from an industrial to a service economy. However, the structures of sectoral energy use have not been changed yet, and energy demand should be increasing until the energy-intensive industrial production to be reduced and energy intensity of the region reaches a peak. As sequence energy consumption data of sub-sectors are not available, only the fundamental three sectors are considered： agriculture, industry and service. However, further decomposition into secondary and tertiary sectors is definitely needed for detailed investigations.     

奥克托今在丙酮中的热安全性研究

奥克托今(HMX)作为爆速高和耐热性好的炸药被广泛应用,其制备提纯工艺均在丙酮中进行。为研究HMX在丙酮中的热安全性,用差示扫描量热-热重(DSC-TG)同步热分析仪研究HMX的热分解过程。测得升温速率为5,10,15,20℃/min的DSC和热重-微商热重法(TG-DTG)曲线,并得出分解峰温分别为279.8,282.5,284.5和288.8℃。用自行设计的临界爆温测试装置,通过小容量法测定HMX、丙酮以及HMX的丙酮溶液的临界爆炸温度。结果表明,在试验条件下,HMX的丙酮溶液的临界爆炸温度高于纯HMX的临界爆炸温度,说明丙酮抑制了HMX的热分解反应,当HMX溶液质量分数为10%时,临界爆炸温度最高,热安全性最好。     

富氧条件下等离子体协同改性NaY分子筛催化分解NO_x研究

用不同浓度的Cu、Ce和La离子交换Na Y分子筛,对比了不同改性条件下等离子体协同分解NO_x的性能.实验结果表明:Cu是NO_x催化分解的主要活性组分,对于8%Cu-Na Y催化剂,当放电电压为10 k V,放电功率为7.6 W时,NO_x转化率可达46.3%,反应产物中没有NO_2,只有11 ppm的N_2O.Ce的加入可以有效提高催化剂催化活性,对于5%Ce-8%Cu-NaY催化剂,当放电电压为7.8 kV,功率为3.6 W时,NO_x转化率可达67.3%.La的加入同样可以使催化剂活性上升,但不同La含量催化剂的NO_x转化率相差较小.     

Mercury adsorption characteristics of HBr-modified fly ash in an entrained-flow reactor

In this study, the mercury adsorption characteristics of HBr-modified fly ash in an entrained-flow reactor were investigated through thermal decomposition methods. The results show that the mercury adsorption performance of the HBr-modified fly ash was enhanced significantly. The mercury species adsorbed by unmodified fly ash were HgCl₂, HgS and HgO. The mercury adsorbed by HBr-modified fly ash, in the entrained-flow reactor, existed in two forms, HgBr₂ and HgO, and the HBr was the dominant factor promoting oxidation of elemental mercury in the entrained-flow reactor. In the current study, the concentration of HgBr₂ and HgO in ash from the fine ash vessel was 4.6 times greater than for ash from the coarse ash vessel. The fine ash had better mercury adsorption performance than coarse ash, which is most likely due to the higher specific surface area and longer residence time.     

集合经验模态分解在长江中下游梅雨变化多尺度分析中的应用

基于长江中下游流域5个梅雨监测站1961~2012年的日数据,利用集合经验模态分解（EEMD）方法,对研究期内梅雨时间序列进行多尺度的分析,探讨其在不同时间尺度上的振荡模态结构特征。结果表明：近50多年来,长江中下游梅雨变化呈现出显著的年际和年代际尺度振荡特征,在年际尺度上表现出准3 a和6 a的周期变化,而在年代际尺度上显示准13 a和24 a的周期变化;各分量方差〖JP2〗贡献率显示,年际振荡在梅雨长期变化中占据主导地位;自1961年以来,EEMD分解的梅雨长期变化趋势表现出先增加后减少的倒“U”型特征,其中1961~1985年呈上升趋势,1985~2012年呈下降趋势,尤其是在2000年之后的下降趋势最为明显。由此可以看出,EEMD能够有效地揭示梅雨长期序列在不同时间尺度上的变化规律,可用于诊断非线性、非平稳性信号变化的复杂性特征     

崇明岛中长期碳排放预测及其影响因素分析

为更好地推动崇明低碳生态岛的建设,在应用以自下而上的部门法为基础的区域范围温室气体排放评估核算方法,全面核算崇明岛能源消费及温室气体排放现状的基础上,应用LEAP模型,通过情景分析预测崇明岛中长期能源消费需求以及温室气体排放水平,并进一步应用对数平均指数法(LMDI)对影响崇明岛未来温室气体排放的主要因素进行了定量分析。研究表明:参考情景下,崇明岛能源消费总量从2010年的101万吨标煤增加到2050年的533万吨标煤,净碳足迹从2010年的238万吨CO2e增加到2050年的579万吨CO2e。崇明岛能源消费需求和碳排放增加的主要驱动因素是未来的经济发展、人口增长和生活水平的提高,但是通过一系列的优化,尤其是能源结构的变化和能耗强度的下降,减排情景下,崇明岛能源消费总量有可能在2039年左右达到峰值,并有望在2050年左右实现"零碳岛"的长期发展目标。结合定量分析的结论,进一步提出了实现崇明岛低碳发展中长期目标的可能性和重点发展领域。     

Effects of typical additives on the thermal stability of ammonium peroxydisulfate

Ammonium peroxydisulfate (APS), one of the most widely used inorganic peroxides in the process industries, is a thermally unstable peroxide and potent oxidizer due to the presence of peroxy bond in the molecule and is incompatible with most substances. To investigate the effect of typical additives on the thermal decomposition of APS, in this paper, diamine phosphate (DAP), monoamine phosphate (MAP), and aluminum hydroxide (AH) were selected as additives; pure APS and samples with 10 wt% and 20 wt% of additives were first tested by differential scanning calorimetry (DSC). The experiments and analysis showed that the samples with 10 wt% of additive had better thermal stability than those with 20 wt% of additive. After screening, the three groups of 10 wt% AH, 10 wt% MAP, and 20 wt% MAP additive conditions could be considered to have a better thermal stability effect on the thermal decomposition of APS. Four groups of samples were, in turn, tested by Phi-Tec II. The adiabatic results showed two discontinuous exothermic processes; 10 wt% AH promoted the weak exothermic effect in the first stage. In contrast, the three groups of additives in the main exothermic stage showed different degrees of inhibition, and the inhibiting effect was ranked as 10 wt% AH, 10 wt% MAP, and 20 wt% MAP in order. Finally, the self-accelerated decomposition temperature (SADT) was calculated under the 25 kg standard package. The adiabatic results, including SADT, were combined to render feasible recommendations for the use of additives, which provides references for the packaging and transportation of additives and their applications.     

福建省生产废水和生活污水污染物排放的驱动力及其时空分异

采用对数平均迪氏指数方法,区分生产和生活两个体系,构建时空分解分析模型,追踪了福建省9个设区市2011—2019年水污染物排放变化的关键驱动力及其贡献的时空差异.结果显示：研究期内福建省工业废水污染物排放持续减少,并且各驱动力贡献的区域差距明显变小,趋于平衡;生活污水污染物排放量仍保持高位,各驱动力贡献的区域差距基本保持不变.其中,经济规模扩张是福建省水污染物排放的主导驱动力,主要源于福州、厦门、泉州经济赶超发展影响;城镇化发展对区域生活污水污染物排放的驱动影响表现为增排效应,以福州和厦门尤为显著;工业化发展对区域工业废水污染物排放的影响效应由正驱动逐渐转变为负驱动,这主要归功于三明和泉州产业结构调整优化的拉动 效应;技术效应一直是福建省水污染物排放控制的重要驱动力,但部分地区已逐渐步入生活污染物技术减排攻坚期.     

长江三角洲创新发展空间溢出效应的测度与分解

一体化深化背景下,准确把握城市群创新互动关系,对于推动高质量发展具有重要现实意义。空间溢出是创新发展互动关系重要体现之一,基于城市尺度数据、空间计量方法,对长江三角洲创新发展空间溢出效应进行多角度研究。主要结论如下：（1）城市创新发展存在显著为正的空间溢出效应,创新人才、资金投入、经济发展、交通设施和对外开放等都是创新发展重要驱动因素,但不同因素空间溢出效应存在差异。（2）不同区域、不同时期对比发现,创新发展空间溢出效应存在显著差异,如区域对比核心区时间演变明显增强等。（3）空间溢出效应随距离增加呈现“倒U型”演变趋势,且这一效应在325 km处最大,而后空间溢出效应的缓慢波动下降与中心城市相对均衡分布有关。本文为识别城市创新发展互动关系提供了新视角,对推动城市群创新发展、一体化深化等具有现实指导意义。     

偶极子探头的低频特性分析

宽带电磁探头是电磁兼容测量中的一个重要器件。对宽带探头进行分析需要求解矩阵方程。对于目前所用的计算电磁学全波方法,当在低频计算的时候,会遇到阻抗矩阵奇异性的问题。针对低频阻抗矩阵奇异性问题,采用奇异值分解的方法求解矩量法方程。对比广义本征值方法,计算仿真分析表明,奇异值分解方法与广义本征值方法一样,可以有效地解决低频奇异性的问题。