Assessing the socio-economic impacts of green/blue space,urban residential and road infrastructure projects in the Confluence (Lyon): a hedonic pricing simulation approach

Urban green/blue spaces are put under pressure as urban areas grow, develop and evolve. It is increasingly recognized, however, that green/blue spaces provide important ecosystem services, stimulate higher real estate prices and prevent flooding problems. This paper aims to assess and compare the socio-economic impacts of potential green/blue space, urban residential and road infrastructure development scenarios in the Lyon Confluence project area (France), using the Sustainable Urbanizing Landscape Development (SULD) hedonic pricing simulation model. Results show four major tendencies regarding the value-added of green/blue spaces in urban landscapes: (1) cities become more compact; (2) population densities increase; (3) real estate values rise; and (4) demographic distribution patterns change. The magnitude of these impacts depends, however, on the quality and size of the intervention, the social classes attracted to the intervention area and on the location of the intervention relative to existing residential areas, urban centres, road infrastructure and environmental amenities.     

中原经济区能源消费视角下的大气环境压力评估

研究以能源消费模式为切入点,分析中原经济区能源消费总量、消费结构和利用效率的现状水平,并分析能源消费引起的大气环境压力状况。基于经济发展速度调控及节能减排力度的不同,设置2020年三种能源消费情景,使用区域能源消费总量优化模型模拟预测不同情景下的能源消费总量,并分析不同情景下的大气环境压力。结果表明,快速发展和适度发展Ⅰ情景下,2020年区域能源消费总量将比2012年增加4.2×10~8tce和2.4×10~8tce,煤炭消费总量将增加3.1×10~8tce和1.2×10~8tce,大气污染物排放压力增加30%和50%;适度发展Ⅱ情景下,能源消费总量将增加0.2×10~8tce,煤炭消费总量将下降0.3×10~8tce,大气污染物排放压力将降低20%。因此,要实现经济发展稳步增长(年均增长率7.7%)和大气污染物排放总量削减10%目标,重中之重是实现煤炭消费总量"零增长"或"负增长",同时力争能源消费总量控制在5×10~8~6×10~8tce,凭借煤炭占比大幅下降(降至65%左右)最大限度发挥能源供给领域节能效应,依靠产业结构升级节能效应和技术节能拓展能源消费领域节能空间,将能效水平提高至0.6tce/万元以下。     

基于系统动力学—投入产出分析整合方法的江苏省产业用水综合效用分析

产业用水结构的欠合理一定程度上制约着社会的发展,如何科学评价产业用水情况,取得在经济效益、水资源和环境资源约束下的协调发展已成为目前区域社会经济发展面临与亟待解答的科学问题。以江苏省为例,提出了系统动力学—投入产出分析整合方法,在构建反映产业结构、用水结构和排污结构的互动反馈的水资源综合利用系统动力学模型基础上,通过敏感性分析确定对系统影响较大的关键变量,运用投入产出分析技术,对江苏省各部门用水特性、排污特性和经济效益特性进行计算测度,由此构建了3种产业发展模拟方案。依据系统动力学模型输出结果,对2025年3种方案下的重点产业部门用水综合效用情况进行对比分析,进而优选出"节水治污型"方案,并最后提出保障方案实施的对策建议,为江苏省产业和用水结构调整提供决策依据。     

Complementarity of No‐Take Marine Reserves and Individual Transferable Catch Quotas for Managing the Line Fishery of the Great Barrier Reef

Abstract: Changes in the management of the fin fish fishery of the Great Barrier Reef motivated us to investigate the combined effects on economic returns and fish biomass of no‐take areas and regulated total allowable catch allocated in the form of individual transferable quotas (such quotas apportion the total allowable catch as fishing rights and permits the buying and selling of these rights among fishers). We built a spatially explicit biological and economic model of the fishery to analyze the trade‐offs between maintaining given levels of fish biomass and the net financial returns from fishing under different management regimes. Results of the scenarios we modeled suggested that a decrease in total allowable catch at high levels of harvest either increased net returns or lowered them only slightly, but increased biomass by up to 10% for a wide range of reserve sizes and an increase in the reserve area from none to 16% did not greatly change net returns at any catch level. Thus, catch shares and no‐take reserves can be complementary and when these methods are used jointly they promote lower total allowable catches when harvest is relatively high and encourage larger no‐take areas when they are small.     

混凝土结构使役环境中氯离子浓度控制系统设计

本文结合湖北省自然科学基金项目"混凝土结构使役环境的智能模拟(2008CDB396)",在前期"211工程"项目"单轴约束可调式混凝土温度应力试验机"研究基础上,针对现有混凝土耐久性试验机在侵蚀溶液注入与氯离子浓度控制环境的空白,采用C51单片机为控制器,设计了一种混凝土结构使役环境中氯离子浓度控制系统,用于自动调节混凝土耐久性实验,模拟实验环境箱内的侵蚀溶液氯离子浓度,保证混凝土耐久性实验试件所处环境氯离子浓度稳定在设定的范围。系统采用溶液缓冲调节与循环注入方式,控制单元采用直读式离子浓度控制器,信号采集更方便。本系统不仅结构简洁,工作可靠性高,还能减少人力浪费,提高运行经济性。     

Uncertainty Analysis of Hydrologic and Water Quality Predictions for a Small Watershed Using SWAT2000

Hydrologic and water quality (H/WQ) models are being used with increasing frequency to devise alternative pollution control strategies. It has been recognized that such models may have a large degree of uncertainty associated with their predictions, and that this uncertainty can significantly impact the utility of the model. In this study, ARRAMIS (Advanced Risk & Reliability Assessment Model) software package was used to analyze the uncertainty of the SWAT2000 (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) outputs concerning nutrients and sediment losses from agricultural lands. ARRAMIS applies Monte Carlo simulation technique connected with Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) scheme. This technique is applied to the Warner Creek watershed located in the Piedmont physiographic region of Maryland, and it provides an interval estimate of a range of values with an associated probability instead of a point estimate of a particular pollutant constituent. Uncertainty of model outputs was investigated using LHS scheme with restricted pairing for the model input sampling. Probability distribution functions (pdfs) for each of the 50 model simulations were constructed from these results. Model output distributions of interest in this analysis were stream flow, sediment, organic nitrogen (organic-N), organic phosphorus (organic-P), nitrate, ammonium, and mineral phosphorus (mineral-P) transported with water. Developed probability distribution functions for the model provided information with desirable probability. Results indicate that consideration of input parameter uncertainty produces 64% less mean stream flow along with approximately 8.2% larger sediment loading than obtained using mean input parameters. On the contrary, mean of outputs regarding nutrients such as nitrate, ammonia, organic-N, and organic-P (but not mineral-P) were almost the same as the one using mean input parameters. The uncertainty in predicted stream flow and sediment loading is large, but that for nutrient loadings is the same as that of the corresponding input parameters. This study concluded that using a best possible distribution for the input parameters to reflect the impact of soils and land use diversity in a small watershed on SWAT2000 model outputs may be more accurate than using average values for each input parameter.     

水土流失地区农田可持续利用的评价模型研究

通过水土流失地区不同农业生产方式对土地质量及土壤生产力的影响研究，探讨不同作物及其不同的种植方式对农田可持续利用的评价预测模型及土地资源利用的价值核算方法。通过对山西省闻喜县的案例应用验证，表明了在农业可持续发展研究中应用的可行性。     

A型导流片在静电除尘器中的应用

静电除尘器内气流分布是影响其脱尘效率的主要因素之一。为提高静电除尘器的除尘效率,国内外学者及工程师利用试验与计算机模拟的方式对如何调节除尘器内的气流分布进行了大量的研究。无论是早期提到的均匀气流法,还是近年来提到的斜气流理论,都提及了使用多孔板调节静电除尘器内气流的方法。但是针对某些静电除尘器及其设计要求来说,单纯的使用孔板进行调节气流已无法满足设计方提出的气流分布指标。在这里A型导流板结合孔板被用来调节静电除尘器气流进口罩内的气流,用以达到优化集尘区气流分布的目的。通过使用数值模拟的方法计算了静电除尘器内三维气流分布状况,对比了针对某静电除尘器项目单独使用多孔板调节气流的分布与使用多孔板与A型导流片相结合调节气流的方法,提出A型导流片在调节静电除尘器气流的优势,及较好的工程应用前景。     

沿海和河口城市防灾设防标准系统分析

本文针对天津、上海、青岛等三种不同类型的沿海、河口城市，运用灰色理论、随机模拟等方法进行了洪水、风暴湖、巨浪等环境因素的计算，并进行了灾害经济损失的风险分析，给出了不同的防灾设防标准。     

大气超细颗粒物观测和扩散模拟研究进展

总结了近年来不同地区对不同环境下大气超细颗粒物的观测和扩散模拟研究进展。大量的观测研究结果表明,大气超细颗粒物的时空分布、组成特征、形成和成长的特性因观测地区的不同而存在很大差异,受气象因素和局部污染源的影响很大;其来源主要包括固定、移动燃烧源的直接排放和大气中颗粒成核现象,前一种来源一般是局部的,而后一种来源则是区域性的。目前,大多数关于大气超细颗粒物扩散的模拟研究都是针对其质量浓度的,对其数浓度扩散的模拟研究主要集中在小范围(机动车排放烟云的研究方面),在城市区域范围上的研究和应用还很少。最后,探讨和展望了大气超细颗粒物今后的主要研究方向和研究中面临的挑战。