国际碳减排活动中的利益博弈和中国策略的思考

博弈论能够解释许多经济活动和国际关系中出现的现象和问题。利用博弈论的相关理论。对《京都议定书》各利益集团之间的利益争斗进行了分析。指出各利益集团之间斗争的内在原因。并对中国在新一轮谈判中的策略提出了一些建议：由于《京都议定书》生效,而美国仍拒绝批准《京都议定书》。并同时抛出自己的减排方案。这必然会引起新一轮的减排博弈。面对美国等一些国家施加的压力,中国在这场新的博弈中要有所准备。提出具有建设性的建议和意见。既要维护中国和大多数发展中国家的利益。又要有助于减排。     

The Application of A Tiered Testing Approach to the Management of Dredged Sediments for Disposal at Sea in Canada

Canada, and other signatories to the London Convention 1972 on the prevention of marine pollution by dumping, are preparing to ratify a 1996 Protocol to this convention. Among the improvements to this international agreement, is a new process for the Assessment of Waste and Other Matter, which is to be adopted by signatory parties. the process includes a step in which material considered potentially acceptable for sea disposal must be characterized by chemical, physical and biological properties. Canada's interpretation and intended implementation of this characterization step is presented for the assessment of dredged sediments. This tiered testing approach involves using chemical screening limits for contaminants, and biological testing when screening levels are exceeded. Dredged material containing specified substances (e.g., cadmium, mercury, PAHs, PCBs, etc.) below or at screening levels would generally be considered of little environmental concern for disposal at sea. Wastes above the screening levels would require more detailed assessment before their suitability for disposal at sea could be determined.     

Estimation of the impact of oil palm plantation establishment on greenhouse gas balance

Estimates of emissions indicate that if tropical grassland is rehabilitated by oil palm plantations, carbon fixation in plantation biomass and soil organic matter not only neutralises emissions caused by grassland conversion, but also results in the net removal of about 135 Mg carbon dioxide per hectare from the atmosphere. In contrast, the emission from forest conversion clearly exceeds the potential carbon fixation of oil palm plantings. Forest conversion on mineral soils to promote continued oil palm mono cropping causes a net release of approximately 650 Mg carbon dioxide equivalents per hectare, while the emission from peat forest conversion is even higher due to the decomposition of drained peat and the resulting emission of carbon oxide and nitrous oxide. The conversion of one hectare of forest on peat releases over 1,300 Mg carbon dioxide equivalents during the first 25-year cycle of oil palm growth. Depending on the peat depth, continuous decomposition augments the emission with each additional cycle at a magnitude of 800 Mg carbon dioxide equivalents per hectare. The creation of ‘flexibility mechanisms’ such as the clean development mechanism and emission trading in the Kyoto Protocol could incorporate plantations as carbon sinks in the effort to meet emission targets. Thus, for the oil palm industry, grassland rehabilitation is an option to preserve natural forest, avoid emissions and, if the sequestered carbon becomes tradable, an opportunity to generate additional revenue. Readers should send their comments on this paper to BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

移动Ad hoc网络路由协议的安全性分析与对策

移动Ad hoc网络是一种自组织、多跳的无线网络,由于其独特性能使移动Adhoc网络面临着比现有网络具有更大的安全挑战,其中路由安全对该网络的安全性起着关键性的作用。在介绍移动Ad hoc网络主要路由协议及其特点的基础上,笔者深入研究了移动Ad hoc网络路由协议中存在的黑洞、拒绝服务等安全漏洞;详细分析了几种主要的Ad hoc路由协议的安全性增强方案;根据不同路由协议的特点,分别提出了利用单向散列链改进距离矢量路由协议安全性的两种方案;分析了一种用于改善源路由协议安全性的方案的可行性。最后,指出了移动Ad hoc网络路由协议安全性问题的进一步改进和研究方向。     

Improving food security in Swaziland: The transition from subsistence to communally managed cash cropping

The Komati Downstream Development Project (KDDP), based upon the Maguga Dam has enabled 6,000 hectares of semi‐arid lowveld, in a region with low and highly variable rainfall to be converted from subsistence to irrigated commercial farming, mainly of sugar cane. This has transformed the Swazi sugar industry from one dominated by a small number of large‐scale commercial estates to one where more than 1,500 previously impoverished small‐scale Swazi farmers have been able to enter the industry by joining farmers’ associations and creating communally managed farms. Recent changes to the EU's Sugar Protocol have undermined the financial viability of the KDDP farms and undermined food security, especially for the poorest, due to the cut in sugar prices. However, some farmers’ associations have opted to keep some of their land as irrigated home gardens, rather than convert all their land to sugar cane. This model has improved food security at a time of low sugar prices and points to a more sustainable way of using water from large scale dams than the conventional model. It is argued that the EU should target support to members of the KDDP who have taken out large‐scale loans to pay for the in‐field infrastructure and encourage all farmers’ associations to adopt the food garden model. This would enable them to continue to benefit from the irrigation through improved production of subsistence crops, whilst they diversify their commercial production into novel markets.     

北京铁路局降雨量远程实时监测系统的研究与开发——系统结构及硬件

为北京铁路局各级防洪指挥部门在汛期能够实时掌握所辖铁路范围内的降雨量情况 ,实现主动防洪 ,并做好铁路抗洪抢险准备工作 ,确保汛期铁路行车安全 ,研究开发了北京铁路局“降雨量远程实时监测系统”。笔者介绍了系统的功能结构 ,重点分析了用于降雨量数据采集、传输的单片机雨量计、工业数据传输硬件设备技术 ,数据通讯协议以及网络通讯技术     

Climate negotiations at a crucial stage: the Hague meeting of contracting Parties in November 2000 and its follow-up

The author discusses the central issues of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol in the general context of the Rio process. The nexus of issues under negotiation in relation to climate change are viewed in the context of multilateral diplomacy for sustainable development. The article outlines the background to the important Sixth Conference of the Parties, held in the Hague in November 2000, and highlights the relationship between the main actors in the negotiations. Finally, the main results of the Hague negotiations are presented, followed by comments on follow-up procedures and perspectives.     

Towards a grand deal on subsidies and climate change

Recent studies have identified public subsidies as a principal cause of unsustainable development. Worldwide, governments are spending up to $U950 billion a year on subsidies. Many of these public subsidies fail to serve their purpose and in fact, often turn out as policy failures as they further distort trade and cause environmental harm. The energy sector is among the most subsidized sectors in the world, receiving over $U240 billion per annum of public subsidies. This article highlights current energy subsidies and their implications. The article examines: (i) the global size and distribution of energy subsidies in industrialized and developing countries; (ii) the impact of these subsidies on the economy, equity and the environment and their role as barriers for sustainable development; (iii) the political economy behind public subsidies and the various political and institutional barriers and lock-in mechanisms that cause subsidies to become entrenched in economic and public structures; and (iv) proposals for effective subsidy reform in energy policies, suggesting a global strategy to eliminate energy subsidies. OECD governments are in a position to take the lead, and the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change presents an excellent opportunity of striking a political grand deal and linking the reform of energy subsidies to a meaningful participation of developing countries to the Kyoto Protocol. Moreover, if sinks are to be included in the clean development mechanism (CDM), it is crucial to include the removal of forestry subsidies in the grand deal.     

消耗臭氧层物质对平流层臭氧的影响预测

采用美国戈达德航天中心的雨云气象卫星臭氧全球网格资料,从中截取中国大陆主体部分(69.375°E～139.375°E、14.5°N～54.5°N)的数据,分析臭氧柱浓度变化的统计特性.结果表明,1979～1998年,大陆主体上空区域的臭氧柱浓度下降趋势明显,青藏高原上空的臭氧柱浓度下降速度较全国水平略快.假定其他缔约国均履行蒙特利尔议定书的前提下,以1980年臭氧柱浓度情形为基准,利用臭氧柱浓度与消耗臭氧层物质浓度之间的关系,预测了中国履行蒙特利尔议定书与不履行两种情形下,2001～2050年中国上空臭氧柱浓度变化情况.结果表明,中国履约受控情形下,2050年大陆主体部分上空的臭氧柱浓度将与其1980年的水平相近;不受控情形下,柱浓度将持续下降,2050年整个大陆主体上空绝大部分地区臭氧柱浓度值均低于240DU.     

气相色谱-质谱法快速筛查气态制冷剂产品中的热点管控类卤代烃

建立了利用气相色谱-质谱法快速筛查气态制冷剂产品中的10种热点管控类卤代烃的分析方法。采用气密性微量注射器对气态制冷剂样品进行取样,刺透瓶盖隔垫加入到顶空瓶中,自动进样;以GS-GasPro(多孔层开管,60 m×0.32 mm)为色谱柱,采用电子轰击离子源,全扫描模式采集。测试结果显示:目标物的体积分数在0.50%~100.00%范围内,相对响应因子的相对标准偏差(RSD)均小于20%;线性相关系数r均在0.999以上;检出限(3.143倍标准偏差)为0.01%~0.05%。对实际样品进行加标回收,回收率为79.5%~102%,测定值RSD为0.5%~3.1%。该方法可为快速、准确、批量筛查气态制冷剂产品中的多种热点管控类卤代烃提供技术支撑。