Sensitivity analysis of North American bird population estimates

The Partners in Flight North American Landbird Conservation Plan provided estimates of population sizes for 448 landbird species using a multiplicative model. Input parameters in this calculation included the area of state × Bird Conservation Region polygons, area-specific mean Breeding Bird Survey counts circa 1995, and adjustment factors for the distance over which species may presumably be correctly counted, the assumed pairing of singing males with non-singing females, and variability in the propensity of birds to sing over the course of the survey day. I assessed the sensitivity of this population calculation to changes in the input parameters. I assessed both local and global sensitivity of the model to changes in the parameters with Monte Carlo one-at-a-time simulations and the Fourier amplitude sensitivity test (FAST). Monte Carlo simulations were an estimate of local model sensitivity whereas FAST estimated global model sensitivity, accommodating the potential shared variance between model parameters. Monte Carlo simulations suggested population estimates were 39% more sensitive to changes in the detection distance adjustment than to the other parameters; the other parameters were nearly equal in their contribution to model sensitivity. Conversely, FAST analysis determined that each of the input variables aside from the pair adjustment provided roughly equal contributions to variability in population estimates. The most efficient means for improving continental population estimates for birds surveyed by the Breeding Bird Survey will be through increased scrutiny of the species-specific distance detection and time-of-day adjustments and improved understanding in the spatial and temporal variability in the mean Breeding Bird Survey count.     

Modeling estuarine-shelf exchanges in a deltaic estuary: Implications for coastal carbon budgets and hypoxia

The export of wetland-derived materials to the coastal ocean (i.e., the “Outwelling” hypothesis) has received considerable attention over the past several decades. While a number of studies have shown that estuaries export appreciable amounts of nutrients and carbon, few studies have attempted to estimate the importance of estuarine sources for the coastal carbon budgets in river-dominated coastal ecosystems. A novel tidal prism model was developed to examine estuarine-shelf exchanges in the Barataria estuary, a deltaic estuary located in the north-central Gulf of Mexico. This estuary has been the site of a massive wetland loss, and it has been hypothesized that carbon export from the eroding coastal wetlands supports the development of a large hypoxic zone in the coastal Gulf of Mexico. The model results show that the Barataria estuary receives nitrogen through the tidal passes and releases carbon to the coastal ocean. The mean calculated tidal water discharge of 6930 m³ s⁻¹ is equivalent to about 43% of the lower Mississippi River discharge. The annual total organic carbon (TOC) export is 109 million kg, or 57 gC m² yr⁻¹ when prorated to the total water area of the estuary. This carbon export is equivalent to a loss of 0.5 m of wetland soil horizon over an area of 8.4 km², and accounts for about 34% of the observed annual wetland loss in the estuary between 1978 and 2000. Compared to the lower Mississippi River, the Barataria estuary appears to be a very small source of TOC for the northern Gulf of Mexico (2.7% of riverine TOC), and is unlikely to have a significant influence on the development of the Gulf's hypoxia.     

Enhancing generic ecological model for short-term prediction of Southern North Sea algal dynamics with remote sensing images

Physically based numerical modelling follows from the basic understanding of the underlying mechanisms and is often represented by a set of (partial differential) equations. It is one of the main approaches in population dynamics modelling. The emphasis of the model introduced in this paper is on the simulation of short-term spatial and temporal dynamics of harmful algal bloom (HAB) events. Total suspended matter (TSM) concentration is one of the dominant factors for harmful algal bloom (HAB) prediction in North Sea. However, the modelling of suspended matter contains a high degree of uncertainty in this area. Therefore, this research aims to achieve a better estimation for the short-term prediction of harmful algal bloom development in both space and time by using spatially distributed TSM retrieved from remotely sensed images as physically based model inputs. In order to supply complete spatially covered datasets for the physically based model instrument: generic ecological model (GEM), this research retrieves TSM information from MERIS images by means of proper estimation techniques including biharmonic splines and self-learning cellular automata. A better estimation of HAB spatial pattern development is achieved by adding spatially distributed TSM data as inputs to original GEM model, and it proved that chlorophyll-a concentration in this area is very sensitive to TSM concentration.     

Application of a temperature-dependent von Bertalanffy growth model to bullhead (Cottus gobio)

The most studied and commonly applied model of fish growth is the von Bertalanffy model. However, this model does not take water temperature into account, which is one of the most important environmental factors affecting the life cycle of fish, as many physiological processes that determine growth, e.g. metabolic rate and oxygen supply, are directly influenced by temperature. In the present study we propose a version of the von Bertalanffy growth model that includes mean annual water temperatures by correlating the growth coefficient, k, explicitly and the asymptotic length, L_∞, implicitly to water temperature. All relationships include parameters with an obvious biological relevance that makes them easier to identify. The model is used to fit growth data of bullhead (Cottus gobio) at different locations in the Bez River network (Drme, France). We show that temperature explains much of the growth variability at the different sampling sites of the network.     

入田泥沙对黄河三角洲地区土壤物理性状的影响——以小开河引黄灌区为例

为研究人田泥沙对小开河灌区自然土壤的影响,用分析化验和工程测试等方法,分析了引黄泥沙和输沙人田后土壤颗粒组成、容重、孔隙状况等物理性状。结果表明：引黄泥沙中0．02～0．002mm的细粉粒比例最高,平均39-31％。小开河自然土壤中0．05-0．02mm的粗粉粒比例最高,为53．41％,泥沙中细粉粒和粘粒含量明显高于当地土壤。输沙人田使灌区土壤中0．02—0．002mm的细粉粒和〈0．002mm的粘粒比例明显增加,〉0．02mm的颗粒比例下降,虽有效避免了因渠首集中沉沙造成的土壤沙化和生态环境恶化,但增加了土壤的粘重程度。农田耕作在一定程度上增加土壤通气孔隙比例、降低土壤容重,但土壤毛管孔隙度依旧稳定在40％左右,毛管作用旺盛,使土壤通气状况不能满足作物需求。在黄河三角洲地区输沙入田的泥沙处理,应结合当地土壤的基本性质和水盐运动规律配置泥沙,以免增强当地土壤紧实、通透性差的性状。     

黄河上中游表层沉积物磷的赋存形态特征

利用淡水沉积物中磷形态的标准测试程序（SMT）,研究了黄河上中游10个沉积物样品中磷的赋存形态变化规律和分布特征,并分析了沉积物中磷的来源和释放潜力。研究结果表明,黄河上中游沉积物中总磷（OP）的含量为82.0～113.5mg·kg-1,无机磷（IP）的含量范围在45.3～76.6mg·kg-1,有机磷（OP）的含量范围在27.6～56.6mg·kg-1。其中主要以无机磷的形式存在,而无机磷中以钙结合态磷为主。线性回归分析结果表明,NaOH-P的含量与活性态Fe、Al含量总和有一定的线性关系。黄河沉积物向上覆水体释放磷的潜力不大。     

基于水土流失的景观格局分析方法

景观格局和生态过程是景观生态学研究的重要内容,但是很多研究只重视景观格局的研究,而忽略了生态过程的研究。文章针对水土流失这一重要生态过程,提出了基于水土流失过程的景观坡度指数和景观空间负荷对比指数,并对黄土高原泾河流域15个子流域的景观格局进行了分析,认为泾河流北部各子流域主要以水土流失的＂源＂景观为主,景观坡度指数大,空间负荷指数小,水土流失风险大;流域南部各子流域上游以＂汇＂景观为主,坡度指数大,中下游以＂源＂景观为主,景观空间分布不均衡,存在一定的水土流失风险;流域东部局部子流域主要以水土流失的＂汇＂景观为主,＂源＂景观相对较小,＂源＂-＂汇＂景观空间分布均衡,水土流失风险小。     

珠江三角洲水位演变分析

全球气候变暖导致的海平面加速上升已是不争的事实,其长期累积的结果将给沿海地区造成巨大威胁。利用层次聚类分析法、灰关联法、相关分析法等重点分析了海平面上升对珠江三角洲水位的影响。结果显示：海平面上升对珠江三角洲代表站的年平均水位和年最低水位的影响大于对年最高水位的影响;海平面上升对马口站和三水站水位的影响小于河床下切和径流的影响;海平面上升对珠江河口区水位的影响由三角洲深处向口门区有增强趋势。掌握海平面上升对水位的影响规律,对于河口地区的防灾减灾和水资源的合理开发利用具有重要的指导意义。     

长江口浮游植物分布情况及与径流关系的初步探讨

利用2004—2008年5月（春季）和8月（夏季）共10个季度月航次调查资料,结合同时期长江口径流量的数据,研究了长江口海域浮游植物的分布特征、及其受长江径流影响的关系。分布情况的结果显示：同一年中,夏季调查航次鉴定的浮游植物种类数明显多于春季的种类数;浮游植物数量的基本趋势逐年增加,其中2008年调查航次的浮游植物数量急剧暴发;同时生物多样性指数呈逐年下降趋势,海域水质污染程度日趋严重。对浮游植物与长江口径流量的关系分析得到：拟合长江口5、8月平均径流量与对应调查航次的浮游植物数量呈正相关的幂函数关系,径流量与浮游植物多样度呈负相关的指数函数关系,径流量与浮游植物优势种数量百分比呈正相关的幂函数关系,关系都明显显著。其中长江口径流量的输入对优势种尤其是近岸低盐性的中肋骨条藻（Skeletonema costatum）分布有着决定性的影响;长江径流把大量的N、P等无机营养物质携带入海,导致长江口水域严重富营养化,造成长江口海域的局部区域频发赤潮。     

大夏河临夏段枯水期纤毛虫群落特征与水质相互关系研究

2008年11月至2009年3月,在大夏河临夏段设置4个断面分2批采集16个水样,用活体镜检和固定染色相结合的方法,对该河段枯水期纤毛虫物种多样性、群落结构特征及其与水质的相互关系进行研究。共鉴定出纤毛虫3纲13目45科57属114种(包括9种未定种)。动基片纲(Kinetofragminophorea)48种(隶属18科22属),寡膜纲(Oligohymenophorea)36种(隶属16科18属),多膜纲(Polyhymenophorea)30种(隶属11科17属),分别占总物种数的42.0%、32.0%和26.0%。肾形豆形虫和梨形四膜虫为优势种群,尾草履虫、瓜形膜袋虫、片状漫游虫、大口瞬目虫、弯豆形虫、小口钟虫、纺锤康纤虫为次优势种群,可以作为河流生活型有机污染的指示物种。据纤毛虫群落特征以及水体主要理化指标对大夏河临夏段水环境质量进行综合评价,结果显示,该河段以生活型有机污染为主。1#~4#样点的污染等级和顺序为:1#(Os,轻微污染)4#(α-ms,中度污染)2#(α-ms,中度污染)3#(α-ms~Ps,中度—重度污染)。