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11.
12.
分析了SHERPA综合评价模型的基本原理和主要建模理念,重点介绍了其在环境空气质量减排情景模拟评估方面的作用,以及在排放源与受体关系(SRR)方面的处理方法,比较了其与欧盟常用的其他情景模拟模型的优缺点。SHERPA模型的特点是空间灵活性较好,对于任何给定地点,可以快速评估不同地区对该研究地点空气质量的影响。SHERPA模型的3个主要功能为污染物来源分析、决策支持和情景模拟。基于SHERPA模型对法国环境空气中PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)和NO_2年均浓度进行污染来源分析、决策支持分析和减排情景模拟评估,展示了模型在环境治理措施优先级筛选和政府间联合治理措施协调建议方面的功能和作用,以期为中国环境空气质量预测预报、环境质量管理措施的制定和成效评估等环境服务与管理工作提供借鉴。 相似文献
13.
温彦平 《环境监测管理与技术》2015,27(1):22-26
选取太原汾河景区跨桥断面8个监测点,在2012年3月—2013年10月期间对河流8项水质参数进行监测,并结合派生的水体综合污染指数及主成分分析方法分析和评价景区水污染时空变化特征。结果表明,景区水质污染变化时空差异明显,上游污染相对较小,下游污染较重;春季溶解氧和p H值变化幅度最大,夏季除总氮和氨氮外,其他各污染物均有显著变化特征,秋季则以氨氮、总氮和总磷变化最为显著。主成分分析结果显示,虽然各监测点水体污染的关键影响因子不同,但总磷是太原市河流水体污染的共同解释因子。 相似文献
14.
绿潮作为一种新型的海洋灾害,已经引起了各个国家的重视.依据2012年南黄海海域浒苔遥感监测分布面积数据,选取了温度、天气状况、风向、风力、浪高5种影响浒苔扩散的气候因子,建立了基于SVR的浒苔分布面积预测模型,并与经典的最近邻点插值模型、线性插值模型、3次样条函数插值模型和分段3次Hermite插值模型进行了回归效果的对比.分析结果表明,基于SVR的浒苔分布面积预测模型能够为浒苔遥感数据的插补提供一种方法,且回归效果优于传统的回归方法,为浒苔的防治提供辅助决策信息. 相似文献
15.
J. B. Harcum Jim C. Loftis Robert C. Ward 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1992,28(3):469-478
ABSTRACT: The use of nonparametric tests for monotonic trend has flourished in recent years to support routine water quality data analyses. The validity of an assumption of independent, identically distributed error terms is an important concern in selecting the appropriate nonparametric test, as is the presence of missing values. Decision rules are needed for choosing between alternative tests and for deciding whether and how to pre-process data before trend testing. Several data pre-processing procedures in conjunction with the Mann-Kendall tau and the Seasonal Kendall test (with and without serial correlation correction) are evaluated using synthetic time series with generated serial correlation and missing data. A composite test (pre-testing for serial correlation followed by one of two trend tests) is evaluated and was found to perform satisfactorily. 相似文献
16.
17.
Surveys of water recreational activities were conducted in the Peel-Harvey estuary. Channels used by recreationists to gain information about water quality, the perception of water quality and resulting behaviour were investigated. This study showed that personal perception, local knowledge and history, absence of warnings and residency were major factors contributing to risk perception and behaviour in this recreational community. Management strategies should take this information into account to achieve maximal outcomes. 相似文献
18.
Almeida CA Quintar S González P Mallea MA 《Environmental monitoring and assessment》2007,133(1-3):459-465
A study of the water quality of the Potrero de los Funes River (San Luis – Argentina) was carried out in order to evaluate
the possible effect of the anthropogenic activities on the river developed in the homonymous town. Samples were collected
during the period March 2000–November 2005 at three selected sampling sites (RP1, RP2 and RP3). Different physicochemical and bacteriological parameters (turbidity, pH, conductivity, suspended solids, alkalinity, potassium,
sodium, calcium, magnesium, chlorides, nitrates, phosphates, sulphates, chemical oxygen demand (COD), 5-day biological oxygen
demand (BOD5), dissolved oxygen, total coliforms, Escherichia coli and total heterotrophic bacteria) were analysed according to the Standard Method for the Examination of Water and Wastewater.
When comparing the values of total coliforms, E. coli, total heterotrophic bacteria, COD, BOD5 and phosphates from the zone without anthropogenic influence (RP1) and the urban zones (RP2 and RP3) an important variation in the parameters was observed. These results indicate that the urban activity produces a serious
and negative effect on the water quality, thus constituting a sanitary risk and may have a major impact on the trophic status
of the Potrero de los Funes dam. As case study, we report on the use of General Quality Index (GQI) to evaluate spatial and
seasonal changes in the water quality of Potrero de los Funes River. Results revealed a significant degradation of the water
quality at RP2 and RP3. 相似文献
19.
研究了几种典型的城市给水管网优化设计数学模型,并给出了求解方法,指出在给水管网系统的优化设计中进一步完善广义简约(GRG)算法的必要性. 相似文献
20.
Background, Aim and Scope Air quality is an field of major concern in large cities. This problem has led administrations to introduce plans and regulations
to reduce pollutant emissions. The analysis of variations in the concentration of pollutants is useful when evaluating the
effectiveness of these plans. However, such an analysis cannot be undertaken using standard statistical techniques, due to
the fact that concentrations of atmospheric pollutants often exhibit a lack of normality and are autocorrelated. On the other
hand, if long-term trends of any pollutant’s emissions are to be detected, meteorological effects must be removed from the
time series analysed, due to their strong masking effects.
Materials and Methods The application of statistical methods to analyse temporal variations is illustrated using monthly carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations
observed at an urban site. The sampling site is located at a street intersection in central Valencia (Spain) with a high traffic
density. Valencia is the third largest city in Spain. It is a typical Mediterranean city in terms of its urban structure and
climatology. The sampling site started operation in January 1994 and monitored CO ground level concentrations until February
2002. Its geographic coordinates are W0°22′52″ N39°28′05″ and its altitude is 11 m. Two nonparametric trend tests are applied.
One of these is robust against serial correlation with regards to the false rejection rate, when observations have a strong
persistence or when the sample size per month is small. A nonparametric analysis of the homogeneity of trends between seasons
is also discussed. A multiple linear regression model is used with the transformed data, including the effect of meteorological
variables. The method of generalized least squares is applied to estimate the model parameters to take into account the serial
dependence of the residuals of this model. This study also assesses temporal changes using the Kolmogorov-Zurbenko (KZ) filter.
The KZ filter has been shown to be an effective way to remove the influence of meteorological conditions on O3 and PM to examine underlying trends.
Results The nonparametric tests indicate a decreasing, significant trend in the sampled site. The application of the linear model
yields a significant decrease every twelve months of 15.8% for the average monthly CO concentration. The 95% confidence interval
for the trend ranges from 13.9% to 17.7%. The seasonal cycle also provides significant results. There are no differences in
trends throughout the months. The percentage of CO variance explained by the linear model is 90.3%. The KZ filter separates
out long, short-term and seasonal variations in the CO series. The estimated, significant, long-term trend every year results
in 10.3% with this method. The 95% confidence interval ranges from 8.8% to 11.9%. This approach explains 89.9% of the CO temporal
variations.
Discussion The differences between the linear model and KZ filter trend estimations are due to the fact that the KZ filter performs the
analysis on the smoothed data rather than the original data. In the KZ filter trend estimation, the effect of meteorological
conditions has been removed. The CO short-term componentis attributable to weather and short-term fluctuations in emissions.
There is a significant seasonal cycle. This component is a result of changes in the traffic, the yearly meteorological cycle
and the interactions between these two factors. There are peaks during the autumn and winter months, which have more traffic
density in the sampled site. There is a minimum during the month of August, reflecting the very low level of vehicle emissions
which is a direct consequence of the holiday period.
Conclusions The significant, decreasing trend implies to a certain extent that the urban environment in the area is improving. This trend
results from changes in overall emissions, pollutant transport, climate, policy and economics. It is also due to the effect
of introducing reformulated gasoline. The additives enable vehicles to burn fuel with a higher air/fuel ratio, thereby lowering
the emission of CO. The KZ filter has been the most effective method to separate the CO series components and to obtain an
estimate of the long-term trend due to changes in emissions, removing the effect of meteorological conditions.
Recommendations and Perspectives Air quality managers and policy-makers must understand the link between climate and pollutants to select optimal pollutant
reduction strategies and avoid exceeding emission directives. This paper analyses eight years of ambient CO data at a site
with a high traffic density, and provides results that are useful for decision-making. The assessment of long-term changes
in air pollutants to evaluate reduction strategies has to be done while taking into account meteorological variability 相似文献