自然灾害风险区划图的一个潜在发展方向

由于自然灾害系统的复杂性及数据资料的不完备性,人们不可能精确估计任何自然灾害发生的概率,"概率值估不准"是现有超越概率风险区划图的致命弱点.简要回顾了针对这一问题已进行的提高估计精度和进行模糊风险计算的有关研究,并将模糊风险研究引入风险区划图的编制,给出了自然灾害软风险区划图的定义和一个初步的样式.讨论了这种风险图在体现风险值估不准方面,以及在为用户提供更多风险信息,为决策者提供调整余地等方面的优点.研究结果表明,软风险区划图是自然灾害风险区划图的一个潜在发展方向.为推进这一研究领域的发展,对今后的工作提出了一些建议.     

运用环境心理学对城市地块的分析

当今城市规划理论正在变得越来越具有广泛综合性.除了传统的理论,例如城市设计、形态学等等,环境心理学也日益受到重视,成为一个具有影响力的元素,以期满足社会日益复杂的功能与心理需求,完善设计成果.     

A hybrid decision-making approach based on FCM and MOORA for occupational health and safety risk analysis

IntroductionWith the development of industries and increased diversity of their associated hazards, the importance of identifying these hazards and controlling the Occupational Health and Safety (OHS) risks has also dramatically augmented. Currently, there is a serious need for a risk management system to identify and prioritize risks with the aim of providing corrective/preventive measures to minimize the negative consequences of OHS risks. In fact, this system can help the protection of employees’ health and reduction of organizational costs. Method: The present study proposes a hybrid decision-making approach based on the Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA), Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM), and Multi-Objective Optimization on the basis of Ratio Analysis (MOORA) for assessing and prioritizing OHS risks. After identifying the risks and determining the values of the risk assessment criteria via the FMEA technique, the attempt is made to determine the weights of criteria based on their causal relationships through FCM and the hybrid learning algorithm. Then, the risk prioritization is carried out using the MOORA method based on the decision matrix (the output of the FMEA) and the weights of the criteria (the output of the FCM). Results: The results from the implementation of the proposed approach in a manufacturing company reveal that the score at issue can overcome some of the drawbacks of the traditional Risk Priority Number (RPN) in the conventional FMEA, including lack of assignment the different relative importance to the assessment criteria, inability to take into account other important management criteria, lack of consideration of causal relationships among criteria, and high dependence of the prioritization on the experts’ opinions, which finally provides a full and distinct risk prioritization.     

The data not collected on community forestry

Conservation and development practitioners increasingly promote community forestry as a way to conserve ecosystem services, consolidate resource rights, and reduce poverty. However, outcomes of community forestry have been mixed; many initiatives failed to achieve intended objectives. There is a rich literature on institutional arrangements of community forestry, but there has been little effort to examine the role of socioeconomic, market, and biophysical factors in shaping both land‐cover change dynamics and individual and collective livelihood outcomes. We systematically reviewed the peer‐reviewed literature on community forestry to examine and quantify existing knowledge gaps in the community‐forestry literature relative to these factors. In examining 697 cases of community forest management (CFM), extracted from 267 peer‐reviewed publications, we found 3 key trends that limit understanding of community forestry. First, we found substantial data gaps linking population dynamics, market forces, and biophysical characteristics to both environmental and livelihood outcomes. Second, most studies focused on environmental outcomes, and the majority of studies that assessed socioeconomic outcomes relied on qualitative data, making comparisons across cases difficult. Finally, there was a heavy bias toward studies on South Asian forests, indicating that the literature on community forestry may not be representative of decentralization policies and CFM globally.     

基于专利地图的我国金属表面无铬钝化清洁生产技术分析

本文以专利地图为分析工具,对我国金属表面无铬钝化清洁生产技术发展的时间、空间和内容进行了归纳分析,并通过研究我国金属表面无铬钝化清洁生产技术专利的发展现状,对其今后的发展趋势进行了预测。     

Cross-border radon index map 1:100?000 Lausitz - Jizera - Karkonosze - Region (northern part of the Bohemian Massif)

The first cross-border map describing the radon (Rn) risk from bedrock was assembled in the northern part of the Bohemian Massif at a scale 1:100?000. The map covers the area of Lausitz (Germany), Karkonosze (Czech Republic and Poland) and Jizera (Czech Republic). The map is based on 818 measurements of soil gas Rn in rock types of Precambrian to Mesozoic age with variable geology. Geographic information system (GIS) processing enabled a good coincidence of soil gas Rn concentrations between data from all three countries in lithologically adjacent rock types as well as the direct correlation to georeferenced indoor Rn values, which was tested using the Czech indoor Rn data. The method of data processing can contribute to assembling the European Geogenic Radon Map.     

Seasonal and spatial variability of Po,U and Pu levels in the river catchment area assessed by application of neural-network based classification

The present study deals with the application of self-organizing maps (SOM) in order to model, classify and interpret seasonal and spatial variability of ²¹⁰Po, ²³⁸U and ^239+240Pu levels in the Vistula river basin. The data set represents concentration values for 3 alpha emitters (²¹⁰Po, ²³⁸U and ^239+240Pu) measured in surface water samples collected at 19 different sampling locations (8 in major Vistula stream while 11 in right or left Vistula tributaries) during four seasons (winter, spring, summer and autumn) in the framework of a one-year quality monitoring study. The advantages of an SOM algorithm, its classification and visualization ability for environmental data sets, are stressed. The neural-network based classification made it possible to reveal specific patterns related to both seasonal and spatial variability. In the middle and upper part of Vistula catchment as well as in the right-shore tributaries, concentrations of ²¹⁰Po and ²³⁸U during summer and winter are the lowest. Concentrations of ²¹⁰Po and ²³⁸U increase significantly during spring and autumn in the Vistula river catchment, especially in the delta of Vistula river. High concentration of anthropogenic originated ^239+240Pu indicates “site-specific” character of pollution in two large left-shore tributaries located in the middle part of the Vistula drainage area. Efficient classification of sampling locations could lead to an optimization of river radiochemical sampling networks and to a better tracing of natural and anthropogenic changes along Vistula river stream.     

上海浦东国际机场飞机尾气排放对机场附近空气质量的影响

统计2012年10月和11月浦东机场飞机机型和航班架次，根据各类飞机起降的污染物排放设计工作参数，估算出2012年浦东机场飞机起降时排放的NO2、SO2、CO和HC的估算值。利用浦东新区13个空气监测子站二氧化氮和二氧化硫数据绘制等值线图。结果显示，机场所在的江镇点位和祝桥点位二氧化氮浓度变化受飞机影响很大，而飞机排放的二氧化硫对两个点位的影响可以忽略不计。建议采用改进飞机滑行路线、探讨征收飞机碳排放税等措施减少飞机尾气排放对空气质量的影响。     

贵州省自然灾害区域分异规律及分析方法研究

贵州省自然灾害严重，且种类多，区域差异明显。为了分析自然灾害区域分异规律，本文提出了灾害模数、灾害区域差异系数等概念，编制了贵州省灾害等级图。     

FACTORS CONTROLLING RUNOFF NUTRIENT LOSS FROM CULTIVATED LAND IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA1

ABSTRACT A stepwise multiple regression was used to evaluate the relative importance of antecedent-, event-, and high-intensity-precipitation amounts; runoff volume; and precipitation nutrient contents and concentrations in determining nutrient losses in runoff. Plots were fertilized at high, medium, and low rates and had cultivation ridges oriented up-and-down slope or on the contour. Runoff volume was the important factor in determining the loss of NO₃, soluble PO₄, total PO₄, and soluble K ions in runoff from fallow, corn, or soybean plots. NH₄-N loss was controlled mainly by the precipitation content and antecedet precipitation since fertilizer had been applied. Nutrient losses were greater from plots fertilized at the high rate and from plots with cultivation ridges oriented up-and-down slope rather than on the contour.