Implications of different population model structures for management of threatened plants

Population viability analysis (PVA) is a reliable tool for ranking management options for a range of species despite parameter uncertainty. No one has yet investigated whether this holds true for model uncertainty for species with complex life histories and for responses to multiple threats. We tested whether a range of model structures yielded similar rankings of management and threat scenarios for 2 plant species with complex postfire responses. We examined 2 contrasting species from different plant functional types: an obligate seeding shrub and a facultative resprouting shrub. We exposed each to altered fire regimes and an additional, species‐specific threat. Long‐term demographic data sets were used to construct an individual‐based model (IBM), a complex stage‐based model, and a simple matrix model that subsumes all life stages into 2 or 3 stages. Agreement across models was good under some scenarios and poor under others. Results from the simple and complex matrix models were more similar to each other than to the IBM. Results were robust across models when dominant threats are considered but were less so for smaller effects. Robustness also broke down as the scenarios deviated from baseline conditions, likely the result of a number of factors related to the complexity of the species’ life history and how it was represented in a model. Although PVA can be an invaluable tool for integrating data and understanding species’ responses to threats and management strategies, this is best achieved in the context of decision support for adaptive management alongside multiple lines of evidence and expert critique of model construction and output.     

基于生态—经济协调发展的乡镇空间功能分区

按提供产品的类别,乡镇尺度空间由生态空间、农业空间和建设空间组成,这3部分空间共同承载着乡镇社会经济发展的重任。坚持生态保护对发展的约束与支撑功能并存的理念,建立以生态约束为前提,并与开发建设协同推进的分区指标体系、技术方法及应用模式,是生态文明战略下空间功能分区的有益探讨。以南京市六合区雄州街道为案例,借助Arc GIS空间分析工具,采用互斥性矩阵分类法,通过对生态约束、农业发展、工业发展与人居环境等建设开发适宜性的单项与综合评价的集成,构建生态、农业和建设空间布局的总体架构,实现了街镇空间功能的整合与科学定位;划分禁止建设区、限制建设区、适宜建设区和已建设区等四大类功能区,并提出各功能区的生态环境保护措施与产业发展导向,为实施区域发展与生态保护的协同推进提供了依据。     

Before the crash: A systematic analysis of police narratives to determine the prevalence of pre-crash factors in fatality road transport crashes

Abstract

Objectives: The objectives of this study were to identify the prevalence of pre-crash factors that were present in fatal road transport crashes for the deceased and counterpart road user.

Methods: The study is a retrospective population-based case series study of transport-related deaths reported to coroners in Australia from 2013 to 2016. Data was extracted from the National Coronial Information System.

Results: In total, 6,137 fatality crashes occurred during the study period. Police reports were available for 5,523 crashes (89.9%). The most frequently reported pre-crash factors reported behaviour specifically drivers (e.g., driving without a license or while license was disqualified). Presence of intoxicating substances were also reported in the deceased and counterparts. Analyses of toxicology reports are continuing to determine if rates are comparable to level of use in community.

Conclusions: Coronial report provide detailed information that may be pertinent to understanding and potentially preventing crashes. Also emerging from the data is the extent of pre-crash factors that relate to illegal or deviant behavior and whether these are contextual or contributory factors.     

干式厌氧消化过程挥发酸对硫酸盐还原菌的影响

在牛粪干式厌氧消化过程中,通过添加不同挥发酸(乙酸、丙酸、丁酸),考察消化稳定阶段,挥发性脂肪酸的分布特征,挥发性脂肪酸酸组成变化对硫酸盐还原菌(SRB)的影响,微生物种群组成和种群间关系。实验结果表明,挥发性脂肪酸对SRB还原速率的贡献依次为:丙酸丁酸乙酸。相比乙酸和丁酸,添加一定量的丙酸,更有利于激活SRB的活性,从而加强SRB与产甲烷菌(MB)的种间协同,保证厌氧系统的稳定运行。     

Population viability and harvest sustainability for Madagascar lemurs

Subsistence hunting presents a conservation challenge by which biodiversity preservation must be balanced with safeguarding of human livelihoods. Globally, subsistence hunting threatens primate populations, including Madagascar's endemic lemurs. We used population viability analysis to assess the sustainability of lemur hunting in Makira Natural Park, Madagascar. We identified trends in seasonal hunting of 11 Makira lemur species from household interview data, estimated local lemur densities in populations adjacent to focal villages via transect surveys, and quantified extinction vulnerability for these populations based on species-specific demographic parameters and empirically derived hunting rates. We compared stage-based Lefkovitch with periodic Leslie matrices to evaluate the impact of regional dispersal on persistence trajectories and explored the consequences of perturbations to the timing of peak hunting relative to the lemur birth pulse, under assumptions of density-dependent reproductive compensation. Lemur hunting peaked during the fruit-abundant wet season (March–June). Estimated local lemur densities were roughly inverse to body size across our study area. Life-history modeling indicated that hunting most severely threatened the species with the largest bodies (i.e., Hapalemur occidentalis, Avahi laniger, Daubentonia madagascariensis, and Indri indi), characterized by late-age reproductive onsets and long interbirth intervals. In model simulations, lemur dispersal within a regional metapopulation buffered extinction threats when a majority of local sites supported growth rates above the replacement level but drove regional extirpations when most local sites were overharvested. Hunt simulations were most detrimental when timed to overlap lemur births (a reality for D. madagascariensis and I. indri). In sum, Makira lemurs were overharvested. Regional extirpations, which may contribute to broad-scale extinctions, will be likely if current hunting rates persist. Cessation of anthropogenic lemur harvest is a conservation priority, and development programs are needed to help communities switch from wildlife consumption to domestic protein alternatives.     

An LC-MS/MS method for creatine and creatinine analysis in paraquat-intoxicated patients

Abstract

A sudden increase in serum creatinine after paraquat intoxication has been reported in several clinical studies. However, this dramatic change of creatinine may be possibly due to an interconversion of creatine-creatinine in relation to paraquat toxicity. In order to investigate the creatine-creatinine relationship, a liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry in combination with electrospray ionization was developed and validated for simultaneous determination of creatine and creatinine in the serum. The chromatographic separation was achieved on a Gemini® C₆-Phenyl column with a gradient elution consisting of 0.1% formic acid in ultrapure water and methanol as the mobile phase. The method yielded suitable levels of specificity and selectivity, and calibration curves of creatine and creatinine in serum were linear over the concentration range of 0.5–200?µg mL^?1. The limit of quantification of both compounds was 0.5?µg mL^?1, and the method was accurate within the recovery range of 96.23–102.75%, indicating the robustness of the method. The method was successfully applied to toxicological samples from paraquat-intoxicated patients, and the concentrations of creatine and creatinine were quantified. High creatine concentrations in serum samples were observed which may lead to high serum creatinine despite normal kidney function as creatine is converted to creatinine in proportion to its concentration.     

Phytotoxicity of atrazine, isoproturon, and diuron to submersed macrophytes in outdoor mesocosms

The submersed macrophytes Elodea canadensis, Myriophyllum spicatum and Potamogeton lucens were constantly exposed over a five-week period to environmentally relevant concentrations of atrazine, isoproturon, diuron, and their mixture in outdoor mesocosms. Effects were evaluated investigating photosynthetic efficiency (PE) of the three macrophytes and growth of M. spicatum and E. canadensis. Adverse effects on PE were observed on days 2 and 5 after application. M. spicatum was found to be the more sensitive macrophyte. E. canadensis and P. lucens were less sensitive to atrazine, diuron and the mixture and insensitive to isoproturon. PE of M. spicatum was similarly affected by the single herbicides and the mixture demonstrating concentration addition. Growth of E. canadensis and M. spicatum was not reduced indicating that herbicide exposure did not impair plant development. Although PE measurements turned out to be a sensitive method to monitor PSII herbicides, plant growth remains the more relevant ecological endpoint in risk assessment.     

夏、冬季降雨中溶解性有机质(DOM)光谱特征及来源辨析

利用紫外-可见光谱与三维荧光光谱,结合拉格朗日混合单粒子轨道模型及火点图,研究了重庆2013年夏、冬两季雨水DOM光谱特征,并对其来源进行解析.结果表明,雨水DOM与水体、土壤DOM具有类似性质光谱特征,证明降雨DOM也是陆地及水环境中DOM地化特征的重要贡献者.雨水DOM中DOC含量为0.88~12.80 mg·L-1,CDOM含量在3.17~21.11m-1之间,夏、冬两季降雨DOM差异明显(P0.05).与夏季相比,冬季降雨DOM分子量较小,芳香性程度较低,腐殖化程度也更低,输入主要以本地和短距离输送为主;而夏季DOM来源较分散.尽管吸收和荧光光谱可用于解析雨水DOM组成和来源,但在光谱特征的解析和来源识别上与其他来源DOM有所区别,传统"内、外源区分"并不适用于雨水DOM.     

黄浦江流域典型污水中不同粒径胶体的三维荧光光谱特征

基于切向流超滤系统及三维荧光光谱技术,对黄浦江流域典型污水(即生活污水及农业污水)中的胶体进行粒径分级及三维荧光光谱特性分析.结果表明,所选水样的胶体质量浓度及胶体态有机碳质量浓度分别为9.60~32.50 mg·L~(-1)和0.03~6.25 mg·L~(-1),二者均随粒径的增加而呈递增趋势.不同粒径分级胶体的三维荧光图谱表现为类蛋白荧光峰(峰D和峰T)及类腐殖质荧光峰(峰C和峰A)这4个荧光峰,其中类蛋白荧光峰主要存在于M_r1×10~3~5×10~3分级胶体中,类腐殖质荧光峰主要存在于M_r10×10~3~300×10~3分级胶体中.同时,通过表征胶体荧光光谱特性的荧光指数,包括FI值、腐殖化指数HIX及生源指数BIX,分析了所选胶体的来源及光谱特性.结果表明,小粒径胶体主要为陆源来源,芳香性及腐殖化程度较高;而大粒径胶体自生源比重大,类蛋白物质是其主要成分.     

夏季太湖CDOM光学特性空间差异及其来源解析

为进一步探究夏季太湖CDOM（有色溶解性有机质）光学特性在空间分布上的差异性与其来源的关系,对其紫外-可见吸收及三维荧光光谱特性进行了分析研究,在此基础上进一步分析了CDOM吸尘系数及其荧光组分（C1、C2、C3、C4）强度和各水质参数间的相关性.结合主成分分析法探讨了CDOM的来源以及与各参数指标[ρ（DOC）除外]之间的来源关系.结果表明:CDOM吸收系数α（355）、S值（光谱斜率）变化范围分别为3.27~8.27 m-1和0.011~0.021 nm-1;太湖西部、北部及南部湖区CDOM丰度较大,S值较低,受陆源输入的影响较为明显.CDOM的三维荧光光谱揭示其中含有两种类蛋白质组分C1和C2以及类腐殖质组分C3和C4,并且以类蛋白质组分为主.此外,大部分采样点的荧光指数（FI）为1.70~2.01,自生源指数（BIX）大于1,腐殖化指数（HIX）小于0.6,r_（T/C）（荧光峰T与荧光峰C荧光强度比值）小于2,表明夏季太湖CDOM内源特性相对强烈.研究显示,除ρ（DOC）外,CDOM与其他水质参数在第一主成分上（贡献率为90.8%）均存在显著相关关系,说明各水质参数的来源存在相似性,并且受生物自生源影响更为显著.