Application of fuzzy sets and cognitive maps to incorporate social science scenarios in integrated assessment modelsA case study of urbanization in Ujung Pandang, Indonesia

Decision–support systems in the field of integrated water management could benefit considerably from social science knowledge, as many environmental changes are human-induced. Unfortunately the adequate incorporation of qualitative social science concepts in a quantitative modeling framework is not straightforward. The applicability of fuzzy set theory and fuzzy cognitive maps for the integration of qualitative scenarios in a decision–support system was examined for the urbanization of the coastal city of Ujung Pandang, Indonesia. The results indicate that both techniques are useful tools for the design of integrated models based on a combination of concepts from the natural and social sciences. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Effects of Native and Non‐Native Vertebrate Mutualists on Plants

Abstract: Extinctions can leave species without mutualist partners and thus potentially reduce their fitness. In cases where non‐native species function as mutualists, mutualism disruption associated with species’ extinction may be mitigated. To assess the effectiveness of mutualist species with different origins, we conducted a meta‐analysis in which we compared the effectiveness of pollination and seed‐dispersal functions of native and non‐native vertebrates. We used data from 40 studies in which a total of 34 non‐native vertebrate mutualists in 20 geographic locations were examined. For each plant species, opportunistic non‐native vertebrate pollinators were generally less effective mutualists than native pollinators. When native mutualists had been extirpated, however, plant seed set and seedling performance appeared elevated in the presence of non‐native mutualists, although non‐native mutualists had a negative overall effect on seed germination. These results suggest native mutualists may not be easily replaced. In some systems researchers propose taxon substitution or the deliberate introduction of non‐native vertebrate mutualists to reestablish mutualist functions such as pollination and seed dispersal and to rescue native species from extinction. Our results also suggest that in places where all native mutualists are extinct, careful taxon substitution may benefit native plants at some life stages.     

北京市土地利用分布与水质响应空间关系研究

以北京市16个水质监测断面和饮用水源地作为研究对象,利用2009—2010年16个水质监测自动站监测数据与2009年北京市土地利用数据,分析不同缓冲区内土地利用与过境水质之间的响应关系。研究结果表明,耕地产生的农业非点源污染对水质影响明显;在大尺度区域增加林地面积比例有利于改善水质;离水源近的农村居民用地对水质产生负面影响;工业建设用地对水质影响在较大尺度上更为显著。     

净水厂氯气泄漏的环境风险分析

以丹阳净水厂为例，选取大气非正常排放模式，预测了液氯钢瓶阀门泄漏及爆炸对周围环境和保护目标的影响，并模拟了钢瓶爆裂事故的后果，计算出事故发生时的初始警戒区半径，提出了相应的氯气泄漏防范措施。     

抗压实验法厌氧颗粒污泥机械强度的测定及影响因素分析

通过首先对厌氧颗粒污泥样品进行筛分,然后测定其机械强度,解决了实际操作过程中现有抗压实验法出现的精确度与重现性较差的问题。通过对不同来源厌氧颗粒污泥样品机械强度的测定、对比分析发现,厌氧颗粒污泥的机械强度大小与反应器的规模、反应器所采用水力负荷存在一定的正相关性,且与其主要金属元素（Ca、Fe和Mg）含量的大小存在着密切的关系。     

天津开发区供水系统地震反应分析

用天津开发区供水系统作为实例，研究了地震作用下该系统的震害，及震后供水功失效状态。实例研究表明，所采用的最新研制的供水系统地震反应分析软件（ＳＰＡＷＧＩＳ）是可靠的。同时还证明，该软件所基于的方法，包括震害预测专家系统及失效流分析等方法是正确的。     

高效液相色谱-原子荧光光谱联用分析土壤中形态砷

采用高效液相色谱(HPLC)-原子荧光光谱(AFS)联用技术分析土壤中亚砷酸盐[As(Ⅲ)]、二甲基砷(DMA)、一甲基砷(MMA)和砷酸盐[As(Ⅴ)]等4种形态砷,以磷酸为提取剂、抗坏血酸为还原剂,优化了水浴提取条件。As(Ⅲ)、DMA、MMA和As(Ⅴ)在7 min之内实现了完全分离,在1.00μg/L～100μg/L范围内线性良好,实验室检出限分别为0.25μg/L、0.36μg/L、0.39μg/L和0.51μg/L,土壤标准样品平行测定的RSD≤7.4%,加标回收率为79.5%～95.0%,提取率为74.6%～90.4%。     

An integration of net imported emissions into climate change targets

There is an international divide between net emissions importers and net emissions exporters, with industrialised nations mainly falling into the former and emerging economies the latter. Integrating emissions transfers into climate policy, so as not to disadvantage export-intensive countries, has been suggested to increase participation in international emissions reduction commitments. Consumption-based scenarios are presented for the UK identifying the geographic and sectorial source of emissions to meet future consumer demands given the current international climate policy landscape. The analysis is applied to the UK yet the discussion is applicable to international climate policy; assigning national responsibility for global emissions reductions; and extending the mitigation potential for net importing countries. Two trajectories for UK consumption emissions are calculated in which (1) international reduction targets are consistent with those pledged today equating to four degrees of temperature rise and (2) international reduction targets achieve a two degree future. By 2050 it is estimated that UK consumption emissions are 40–260% greater than UK territorial emissions depending on the strength of global reduction measures, and assuming the UK meets its 80% reduction in 1990 emissions by 2050 target. Cumulative emissions are presented alongside emissions trajectories, recognising that temperature rise is directly related to every tonne of carbon emitted. Whilst this paper argues that the current UK emissions targets underestimate the UK's contribution to global mitigation for two degrees, it shows how expanding the focus of policy towards consumption introduces new opportunities for reduction strategies at scale. The paper advocates the implementation of consumption-based emissions accounting which reveals underexploited policy interventions and increases the potential to break down barriers that exist between industrialised and emerging economies in international climate policy.     

中国与美国对外直接投资区位选择的比较研究

基于邓宁的国际生产折衷理论,对比了中美两国投资规模、空间分布和发展阶段,利用灰色关联分析法比较了影响两国投资区位的因子.结果表明,影响美国对外投资的主要因子是人均GNP、CH和CO2的排放量,影响中国的主要因子是直接投资净流入量、航空运输量和CPI;美国对外直接投资属于市场导向型,而中国尚处于转型期,为对外投资第三阶段.     

山东半岛蓝色经济区海洋生态旅游发展研究

发展海洋生态旅游是实现山东半岛蓝色经济区战略的重要途径之一。在SWOT分析的基础上，指出在山东半岛蓝色经济区发展海洋生态旅游必须明确其动力机制，坚持统筹发展战略，从生态保护、社区参与、区域统筹和产业协同四个方面采取具体的对策。