Compliance and Emissions Trading under the Kyoto Protocol: Rules for Uncertain Inventories

A solution is proposed for proving compliance with emission targets and for emissions trading in the event of uncertainties in reported emission inventories. The solution is based on the undershooting concept, from which the mathematical conditions for both proving compliance with a risk α and calculating effective emissions for trading are derived. Based on the reported emission units, the number of permits granted is reduced in proportion to the uncertainty in the inventory. A country whose inventory has higher uncertainty is thereby allotted fewer permits than a country with the same inventory but smaller uncertainty.     

基于模糊综合方法的工业污水环境安全影响评价研究

在综合分析水环境影响因素的基础上,应用模糊综合评价方法对工业污水环境安全影响进行了研究。首先构建工业污水污染程度模糊综合评价的数学模型,然后利用综合评价方法对污水中重金属污染程度进行有效评价。研究结果表明:模糊综合评价方法可以全面考虑企业排放废水中影响环境安全的各种因素,充分体现评价因素和评价过程所固有的模糊性,适用于复杂参数水环境的不确定分析与评价,可以有效地评价水的质量;将模糊评价方法引入工业污水对环境安全影响的评价体系,是污水处理评价发展的一个新方向和新领域,它是污水处理评价方法的补充和完善,在该领域具有广阔的应用前景。     

Application of the Braun-Blanquet cover-abundance scale for vegetation analysis in land development studies

To document environmental impact predictions for land development, as required by United States government regulatory agencies, vegetation studies are conducted using a variety of methods. Density measurement (stem counts) is one method that is frequently used. However, density measurement of shrub and herbaceous vegetation is time-consuming and costly. As an alternative, the Braun-Blanquet cover-abundance scale was used to analyze vegetation in several ecological studies. Results from one of these studies show that the Braun-Blanquet method requires only one third to one fifth the field time required for the density method. Furthermore, cover-abundance ratings are better suited than density values to elucidate graphically species-environment relationships. For extensive surveys this method provides sufficiently accurate baseline data to allow environmental impact assessment as required by regulatory agencies.     

DETERMINATION OF SEDIMENT YIELD BY TRANSFERRING RAINFALL DATA1

ABSTRACT: A methodology for obtaining the optimal design value to allow for sediment storage in a reservoir is presented for the situation where no data on sediment loads in the incoming streams are available. Information concerning the amount of sediment delivered to the reservoir over its life-time is obtained by a sediment yield model which uses data on rainfall amount and duration obtained from a nearby experimental watershed. Bayesian Decision Theory is used to obtain the optimal storage requirements in order to consider the natural variation of rainfall and the sampling error due to the short rainfall record available. The normally difficult calculations involved were made tractable by the use of simplifications and approximations valid in the context of the problem. Results show that sediment storage requirements can be calculated in this manner and that consideration of the uncertainties involved leads to a storage requirement substantially larger than that calculated without such consideration.     

FOG DRIP IN THE BULL RUN MUNICIPAL WATERSHED,OREGON1

ABSTRACT: Net precipitation under old growth Douglas fir forest in the Bull Run Municipal Watershed (Portland, Oregon) totaled 1739 mm during a 4Cbweek period, 387 mm more than in adjacent clearcut areas. Expressing data on a full water year basis and adjusting gross precipitation for losses due to rainfall interception suggest fog drip could have added 882 mm (35 in) of water to total precipitation during a year when precipitation measured 2160 mm in a rain gage in a nearby clearing. Standard rain gages installed in open areas where fog is common may be collecting up to 30 percent less precipitation than would be collected in the forest. Long term forest management (Le., timber harvest) in the watershed could reduce annual water yield and, more importantly, summer stream flow by reducing fog drip.     

ATIS环境下驾驶员认知负荷研究进展

为构建更加符合驾驶员认知特性的出行信息环境,提高驾驶员出行信息服务水平,对ATIS环境下驾驶员认知负荷研究进展进行系统分析与评述.首先阐述了认知负荷的理论基础,随后分析了ATIS环境下驾驶员认知负荷的影响因素,同时分类解析了驾驶员内在认知负荷、外在认知负荷与相关认知负荷的产生根源,并对认知负荷的形成机理进行了分析;系统评述了驾驶员认知负荷的测量方法,最后基于驾驶员信息认知负荷提出了ATIS优化对策.结果表明:年龄、性别、受教育程度、月收入、出行经验是影响驾驶员认知负荷的主要因素;道路交通标志的版面设计与驾驶员的标志视认时间关联密切;驾驶过程中拨打手机及使用车载终端均会分散驾驶员注意力,增加驾驶员的信息认知负荷;较高的车速与音频播放等环境会对驾驶员的信息认知能力提出更高要求.     

PWM变频驱动电机轴电压与轴电流的测试方法

PWM变频器的广泛应用大大改善了电机调速性能,但是,由于PWM变频器共模电压在电机内部耦合电容作用下,形成轴电压和轴电流,会引起轴承早期失效危及系统安全运行。轴电流问题的研究包括对轴电流的分析、预测和抑制。然而这些过程需要轴电压和轴电流的准确测量进行验证和比对分析。设计合理而有效的测量装置和测量方法是非常重要的一环。在分析轴电流产生机理的基础上,对现有的各种轴电流测量方法和轴承阻抗特性测试方法进行介绍,总结对比这几种方法的优缺点,为轴电流的测试平台的新设计提供参考。     

Development and Operational Testing of a Super‐Ensemble Artificial Intelligence Flood‐Forecast Model for a Pacific Northwest River

Coastal catchments in British Columbia, Canada, experience a complex mixture of rainfall‐ and snowmelt‐driven contributions to flood events. Few operational flood‐forecast models are available in the region. Here, we integrated a number of proven technologies in a novel way to produce a super‐ensemble forecast system for the Englishman River, a flood‐prone stream on Vancouver Island. This three‐day‐ahead modeling system utilizes up to 42 numerical weather prediction model outputs from the North American Ensemble Forecast System, combined with six artificial neural network‐based streamflow models representing various slightly different system conceptualizations, all of which were trained exclusively on historical high‐flow data. As such, the system combines relatively low model development times and costs with the generation of fully probabilistic forecasts reflecting uncertainty in the simulation of both atmospheric and terrestrial hydrologic dynamics. Results from operational testing by British Columbia's flood forecasting agency during the 2013‐2014 storm season suggest that the prediction system is operationally useful and robust.     

The multiple communities of low-carbon transition: an assessment of communities involved in forest carbon measurement

In recent writing on sociotechnical transitions theory communities are mostly conceived of as being local and place-based (“grassroots”). In this paper the implications for sociotechnical transitions theory of having multiple communities operating at different geographical scales, and with different objectives, are examined through a case study of low-carbon innovation in forests. The focus of analysis is the communities promoting sociotechnical innovations in the measurement of forest carbon. Innovation is being driven by the international United Nations climate policy initiative “Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation” (REDD+). The rise of REDD+ policy has prompted a flurry of activity in related scientific research, especially in the field of remote sensing. But other types of community are also actively positioning themselves as experts in forest carbon measurement: there are multiple communities at work, each with varying claims to innovation and expertise, from local (place-based) forest communities to international communities of foresters and forest ecologists. Recognition of the multiple communities operating within sociotechnical systems usefully draws our attention to the politics of innovation.