过去300a长江中下游异常丰梅事件变化与洪涝灾害

2016年6—7月,长江流域发生重大洪涝灾害,给社会生产和人民生活带来严重损失。而该时段内梅雨因其强降水过程频繁、持续时间长、雨量集中等特点成为主要致灾因子。论文利用历史文献和观测资料,构建了1736年以来异常丰梅事件年表,分析了其长期变化特征及与El Ni?o事件的统计关系,并诊断了El Ni?o造成异常丰梅事件的大气环流背景。结果表明:1736—2016年间共发生44次异常丰梅事件(含21次特大梅雨事件),其中1900年代、1910年代、1990年代是异常丰梅事件最为频繁的3个时段;与2016年梅雨特征相近的特大梅雨事件有21次。过去300 a间,异常丰梅事件与El Ni?o存在较好的对应关系,44次异常丰梅事件中37次发生在El Ni?o的当年或次年;在21次特大梅雨事件中16次伴随El Ni?o出现。伴随El Ni?o事件而发生的异常丰梅事件环流特点是中高纬经向环流偏强,我国境内水汽输送通道偏西、偏北,大量水汽滞留在长江流域,并与南下的冷空气交汇,从而形成持续性降水;而在El Ni?o次年,低纬存在较强且稳定的副热带高压,水汽输送路径偏北,长江中下游水汽输送通量显著增强,更容易导致异常丰梅事件的发生。     

Change in Fish Fauna as Indication of Aquatic Ecosystem Condition in Río Grande de Morelia–Lago de Cuitzeo Basin, Mexico

Chirostoma charari and C. compressum, and they are presumed extinct. Twelve (63%) of the remaining species had declines in distribution. Sixteen (80%) of the 20 localities sampled had lost species. The greatest declines occurred in Lago de Cuitzeo proper and in the lower portion of the Río Grande de Morelia watershed. Species losses from the lake were attributable to drying and hypereutrophication of the lake because of substantial reductions in the amount and quality of tributary inputs, whereas losses from the Río Grande de Morelia watershed were the result of pollution from agricultural, municipal, and industrial sources, especially in the region around the city of Morelia. Three localities in the upper portion of the Río Grande de Morelia watershed—Cointzio reservoir, La Mintzita spring, and Insurgente Morelos stream—contained most of the remaining fish species diversity in the basin and deserve additional protection. Fish faunal changes indicated major declines in the health of aquatic ecosystems in the Morelia–Cuitzeo basin.     

Temporal variation of the concentration and biochemical composition of seston within the Humboldt Current System off northern Chile (21°S)

Seasonal differences in the concentration and biochemical composition of seston have been assessed for the first time in the Humboldt Current System off northern Chile (21°S). The study comprised four seasonal surveys in the Bay of Chipana, including the summer and winter of 2006 and 2007, when El Niño 2006 and La Niña 2007 developed. Protein, lipid, carbohydrate and biogenic silica contents were measured in samples collected at four selected depths. The highest protein, lipid and carbohydrate concentrations were found at the fluorescence maximum (between 10 and 15 m depth), whereas the highest biogenic silica concentration was found 1 m above the seabed. When El Niño started developing, every variable showed low values throughout the water column; however, the lowest values were found when La Niña conditions dominated, together with low oxygen concentrations. Samples collected within the oxygen minimum zone (65 m depth) showed the lowest values for the water column and the lowest seasonal variations. After the evident decline coincident with El Niño 2006, the abundance and biochemical quality (high protein and lipid contents) of seston recovered earlier in the surface layer (upper 15 m) than at other depths.     

Climate variability,political crises,and historical population displacements in Ethiopia

Abstract

El Niño events from the 1970s through the 1990s caused extended droughts in Ethiopia. These droughts were followed by famine and political turmoil that resulted in radical changes of government, secession, and a massive program of population redistribution. Cartographic analysis of Ethiopian census data from 1984 and 1994 shows changes in demographic patterns. The consequences of government-imposed migration policies, whose catalyst was the climate variability caused by repeated El Niño events, were changes in the ethnic composition of certain Ethiopian regions and changes in the geographic pattern of population growth.     

环境雌激素o,p′-DDT和抗雌激素氟维司群对斑马鱼胚胎的复合效应

为探究雌激素与抗雌激素的复合效应,将斑马鱼(Danio rerio)的胚胎暴露于o,p′-DDT和氟维司群2种典型的环境内分泌干扰物中,考察胚胎孵化率、孵化时间和总畸形率,并用实时荧光定量PCR技术检测Vtg1、Vtg2和ERα等雌激素效应相关基因的mRNA转录水平.结果显示,与单一化合物的暴露相比,o,p′-DDT和...     

A field experiment characterizing variable detection rates during plant surveys

Surveys aimed at finding threatened and invasive species can be challenging due to individual rarity and low and variable individual detection rates. Detection rate in plant surveys typically varies due to differences among observers, among the individual plants being surveyed (targets), and across background environments. Interactions among these 3 components may occur but are rarely estimated due to limited replication and control during data collection. We conducted an experiment to investigate sources of variation in detection of 2 Pilosella species that are invasive and sparsely distributed in the Alpine National Park, Australia. These species are superficially similar in appearance to other yellow-flowered plants occurring in this landscape. We controlled the presence and color of flowers on target Pilosella plants and controlled their placement in plots, which were selected for their variation in cover of non-target yellow flowers and dominant vegetation type. Observers mimicked Pilosella surveys in the plots and reported 1 categorical and 4 quantitative indicators of their survey experience level. We applied survival analysis to detection data to model the influence of both controlled and uncontrolled variables on detection rate. Orange- and yellow-flowering Pilosella in grass- and heath-dominated vegetation were detected at a higher rate than nonflowering Pilosella. However, this detection gain diminished as the cover of other co-occurring yellow-flowering species increased. Recent experience with Pilosella surveys improved detection rate. Detection experiments are a direct and accessible means of understanding detection processes and interpreting survey data for threatened and invasive species. Our detection findings have been used for survey planning and can inform progress toward eradication. Interaction of target and background characteristics determined detection rate, which enhanced predictions in the Pilosella eradication program and demonstrated the difficulty of transferring detection findings into untested environments.     

USING CLIMATE FORECASTS FOR WATER MANAGEMENT: ARIZONA AND THE 1997–1998 EL NIÑO1

ABSTRACT: Unrelenting pressure on limited surface water supplies requires increasingly sophisticated water management approaches. Climate forecasts of seasonal precipitation and temperature are potentially useful, but the operational water management community currently underutilizes them. However, some agencies in Arizona took unprecedented advantage of forecasts for a potentially wet winter during the 1997–1998 El Niño event. This study investigates use of this information through a series of semi‐structured in‐depth interviews with key personnel from agencies responsible for emergency management and water supply; their jurisdictions ranged from urban to rural and local to regional. Interviews investigated information acquisition, interpretation, and incorporation into specific decisions and actions. While unprecedented actions were taken by some water management agencies and no agencies implemented inappropriate measures, some missed opportunities for more effective response, primarily through inaction. This study reveals a variety of technical factors and institutional characteristics affecting forecast use. Study findings emphasize the need for: (a) closer ongoing relationships between forecast producers and users, (b) increased institutional flexibility to exploit the increasing skill of seasonal climate forecasts, (c) demonstration projects of effective forecast use, and (d) a regional forum to facilitate information transfer between the hydro‐climatic research community and operational water managers.     

PTA废液回收利用技术

介绍了从精对苯二甲酸（PTA）废液中回收醋酸,邻、对苯二甲酸,醋酸钴锰盐的回收工艺。醋酸得率为90％,邻、对苯二甲酸得率为70％,醋酸钴锰盐得率为95％。该技术成熟、合理,具有较好的经济效益和环境效益。     

The effectiveness of surrogate taxa to conserve freshwater biodiversity

Establishing protected areas has long been an effective conservation strategy and is often based on readily surveyed species. The potential of any freshwater taxa to be a surrogate for other aquatic groups has not been explored fully. We compiled occurrence data on 72 species of freshwater fishes, amphibians, mussels, and aquatic reptiles for the Great Plains, Wyoming (U.S.A.). We used hierarchical Bayesian multispecies mixture models and MaxEnt models to describe species’ distributions and the program Zonation to identify areas of conservation priority for each aquatic group. The landscape‐scale factors that best characterized aquatic species’ distributions differed among groups. There was low agreement and congruence among taxa‐specific conservation priorities (<20%), meaning no surrogate priority areas would include or protect the best habitats of other aquatic taxa. Common, wideranging aquatic species were included in taxa‐specific priority areas, but rare freshwater species were not included. Thus, the development of conservation priorities based on a single freshwater aquatic group would not protect all species in the other aquatic groups.     

Viability Analysis of Reef Fish Populations Based on Limited Demographic Information

Abstract:  Marine protected areas (MPAs) that allow some degree of artisanal fishing have been proposed to control the overexploitation of marine resources while allowing extraction by local communities. Nevertheless, the management of MPAs is often impaired by the absence of data on the status of their resources. We devised a method to estimate population growth rates with the type of data that are usually available for reef fishes. We used 7 years of spatially explicit abundance data on the leopard grouper ( Mycteroperca rosacea ) in an MPA in the Gulf of California, Mexico, to construct a matrix population model that incorporated the effects of El Niño/La Niña Southern Oscillation on population dynamics. An environmental model that estimated different demographic estimates for El Niño and La Niña periods performed better than a single-environment model, and a single-habitat model performed better than a model that considered different depths as different habitats. Our results suggest that the population of the leopard grouper off the main island of the MPA is not viable under present conditions. Although the impact of fishing on leopard grouper populations in the MPA has not yet been established, fishing should be closed as a precautionary measure at this island if a priority of the MPA is to ensure the sustainability of its fish populations.