公众灾害风险可接受性与避灾意愿的初探——以川渝地区旱灾风险为例

在综述前人研究的基础上,以川渝地区旱灾为例,通过实地调查与访谈,从公众可接受的旱灾损失与频率、假定旱灾风险情景下的避险意愿等角度,对公众旱灾风险可接受性进行了初步探讨。结果表明,公众合理可接受的旱灾损失与频率分别在26.5%~52.8%与32.0%~64.3%区间范围内;并以一般旱灾、严重旱灾风险情景为限制线,确定了公众合理可接受风险区域;随着灾害损失风险增加,公众规避风险投资意愿呈现出中间高两头低的趋势,当灾害损失达到约50%~70%时,公众避险投资意愿达到最高,意愿避险投资占可能损失的比重约为62%。鉴于川渝地区的旱灾形势,今后旱灾风险管理的关键,一是加强对旱灾的监测与预警预报;二是完善旱灾风险的常规化管理,发展高效灌溉农业,充分利用客水资源,完善提高现有农田水网建设;三是积极探索公众-企业-政府多方共同参与的高效风险管理模式。     

污染源普查成果在环境管理中的应用

历经3年的第一次全国污染源普查现已基本结束。此次污染源普查中获得了大量珍贵的污染源基础性数据,合理开发这些数据,对提高环境监察、项目审批、污染源治理及减排等工作,对加强环境管理有着不可估量的作用。结合唐山市的环境管理工作,阐述了利用普查成果,可对唐山市环境保护工作的开展起到积极的促进作用。     

南京市污染源普查的质控工作探讨

对南京市在污染源普查过程中采取的质控措施进行了探讨，分析出普查质控工作的不足，并提出了几点建议。为提高以后普查的质量拓宽思路。     

Radioecology, radiobiology, and radiological protection: frameworks and fractures

A framework for the protection of the general public has been in existence for a very long time, although steps have recently been made by the ICRP to ensure that it is more fully comprehensive with regard to all actual and potential exposure situations. Protection of the environment, however, has only recently begun to be addressed in a structured manner, and is still an evolving subject. Nevertheless, it needs to be centred around some form of parallel framework to that which has evolved for the protection of human beings, although clearly on a different scale. It also needs to be embedded within the basic science of radiobiology, and form a central part of radioecology.     

The importance of context for effective public engagement: learning from the governance of waste

This paper takes a new look at the importance of context – institutional and political – in effective public engagement processes. It does so through a rare comparative opportunity to examine the effectiveness of processes of public engagement in two UK waste authorities, where the same waste company was involved as both the primary contractor for the delivery of the waste management service (including new energy-from-waste facilities) and, furthermore, the same staff delivered the public engagement. Interrogating these cases affords the opportunity to place flesh on the bones of the sometimes ‘abstract’ skeleton of context. While engagement processes support effective local governance in an era of partnerships and deliberative democracy, the paper identifies that the methods adopted cannot be played out devoid of detailed understanding and response to local context, including the strength of partnership working between the public and private sector, the degree of political support for engagement, and the extent to which a traditional institutional paternalism still dominates.     

基于适应性管理的水污染控制体系构建——以太湖流域为例

从规划内容与目标、规划方法及方案实施和评估3方面对太湖近20年水污染物控制历程进行综合分析,认为太湖水污染物控制正处面源污染、生活污染及新型污染问题凸显且更难处理,更为广泛的利益相关者和科研队伍积极参与的转型期.这种变化将导致污染治理面临更难应付的动态性和复杂性,使得当前以环境容量为总量为指导通过自上而下分配排污量和削减量的控制方案面临极大挑战.结合太湖水污染现状,通过与现行治理方法在管理假设、适合对象、协调管理手段、管理目标、规划方法、公众参与程度以及规划的优劣势等方面的比较发现,适应性管理可以积极有效应对由于环境趋势和管理协调对象变化所带来的系统不确定性和复杂性,将是一个积极有效的补充方法.同时,本文基于适应性管理提出了太湖水环境污染物排放控制体系的构建框架,突出适应性管理平台、科学研究及公众与基层单位参与在污染物控制中的重要作用.     

Assessing health impacts in complex eco-epidemiological settings in the humid tropics: Modular baseline health surveys

The quantitative assessment of health impacts has been identified as a crucial feature for realising the full potential of health impact assessment (HIA). In settings where demographic and health data are notoriously scarce, but there is a broad range of ascertainable ecological, environmental, epidemiological and socioeconomic information, a diverse toolkit of data collection strategies becomes relevant for the mainly small-area impacts of interest. We present a modular, cross-sectional baseline health survey study design, which has been developed for HIA of industrial development projects in the humid tropics. The modular nature of our toolkit allows our methodology to be readily adapted to the prevailing eco-epidemiological characteristics of a given project setting. Central to our design is a broad set of key performance indicators, covering a multiplicity of health outcomes and determinants at different levels and scales. We present experience and key findings from our modular baseline health survey methodology employed in 14 selected sentinel sites within an iron ore mining project in the Republic of Guinea. We argue that our methodology is a generic example of rapid evidence assembly in difficult-to-reach localities, where improvement of the predictive validity of the assessment and establishment of a benchmark for longitudinal monitoring of project impacts and mitigation efforts is needed.     

Public participation in municipal solid waste source-separated collection in Guilin,China: status and influencing factors

Currently, China is facing critical problems regarding the management of municipal solid waste (MSW). The failure of existing pilot programs in implementing MSW source-separated collection highlights the need to analyze the factors significantly influencing public participation in this activity. To this end, a comprehensive analysis of MSW source-separated collection in Guilin, which is representative of wider areas located in inland China and with a GDP around the national average, was conducted. The research consisted of in-person interviews involving a questionnaire and theoretical analyses in terms of public perception, public awareness, public attitude, and willingness to pay. The analytical results identify the status of waste source-separated collection and influencing factors in implementation, and provides exercisable suggestions for decision makers in both China and more generally in industrializing countries to design promotion programs and education campaigns.     

社会减灾能力信任及水灾风险感知的区域对比——基于江西九江和宜春公众的调查

研究公众对社会减灾能力及灾害风险的认识，有助于从公众视角揭示风险潜在因素，不仅是进行风险沟通的必备环节，还可以为开展有效的减灾宣传教育、提高公众减灾意识提供决策依据。通过社会调查（221份样本）和统计分析方法，比较了江西九江、宜春公众对于社会减灾能力的信任及水灾风险感知。结果表明，公众对于社会减灾能力基本持信任态度，信任度高低排序为：灾害监测预报>政府应急>防灾工程>预警传播，其中宜春公众的信任度较高；公众对于水灾的风险感知较弱，尤其是宜春公众认为水灾发生、受灾的可能性很小；公众的信任与对区域减灾能力的了解无关，主要是受到受灾经历（受灾次数、灾情损失、灾后救援）的影响，即区域本底灾害风险的高低导致公众认知的差异，风险较高区域（九江）的公众具有更为明确的降低风险的行为倾向及意愿。     

可靠性理论在公共安全领域的应用研究

对公共安全体系从系统可靠性的视角,综合运用可靠性方面的知识,构建公共安全系统混联模型;进而将可靠性分配理论与故障树分析方法相结合,根据系统安全目标的要求,确定混联系统的第一层次各单元事件的可靠性目标值,对构成各单元的各个下属单元采取最小工作量可靠度分配方法,从而建立系统中各单元可靠度再分配量化模型。通过建筑物火灾引起人员伤亡事故实例,详述系统各单元可靠性分配的计算过程。研究表明,可靠性理论可以成功地应用到公共安全领域;使系统在给定的目标值条件下达到系统的安全性优化,实现了公共安全保障效能,减小灾害损失。