A NEW LOOK AT FLOOD RISK DETERMINATION1

ABSTRACT: The probability distributions of annual peak flows used in flood risk analysis quantify the risk that a design flood will be exceeded. But the parameters of these distributions are themselves to a degree uncertain and this uncertainty increases the risk that the flood protection provided will in fact prove to be inadequate. The increase in flood risk due to parameter uncertainty is small when a fairly long record of data is available and the annual flood peaks are serially independent, which is the standard assumption in flood frequency analysis. But standard tests for serial independence are insensitive to the type of grouping of high and low values in a time series, which is measured by the Hurst coefficient. This grouping increases the parameter uncertainty considerably. A study of 49 annual peak flow series for Canadian rivers shows that many have a high Hurst coefficient. The corresponding increase in flood risk due to parameter uncertainty is shown to be substantial even for rivers with a long record, and therefore should not be neglected. The paper presents a method of rationally combining parameter uncertainty due to serial correlation, and the stochastic variability of peak flows in a single risk assessment. In addition, a relatively simple time series model that is capable of reproducing the observed serial correlation of flood peaks is presented.     

剥壳机系统噪声控制技术

剥壳机生产系统将胡豆打碎和去壳时发出严重的扰民噪声,对产生噪声的设备和管道采用隔声和吸声控制措施。结果表明,效果十分明显,达到了国家环境噪声排放标准。     

控制排气放空噪声的消声器之研究与应用

排气放空噪声是工业上常遇到的噪声源。本文介绍了根据喷注噪声发射理论研制成的小孔喷注与节流降压相复合的新型消声器，适用于高压气源排放，取得了较好的消声效果。鉴于喷注发射噪声的强度取决于喷注的驻压与喷口直径等参量，对节流降压层的设计与控制小孔喷注层的驻压大小，提出了新的见解，可供设计研究喷注消声器参考使用。     

干燥过程中的噪声危害及防治措施

粮食烘干过程的噪声危害必须引起人们的重视，通过对噪声产生的根源及给作业人员健康带来的损害进行分析，结合生产实际，提出了防治措施。     

京沪高速铁路地震预警系统的方案及关键参数研究

京沪高速铁路及沿线区域跨越 4个主要的地震带 ,带内地震活动活跃 ,地震是对高速列车行车安全危害最大的自然灾害。在对京沪高速铁路及沿线区域地震危险性调查的基础上 ,对地震预警系统的构成、监测设备的设置方案及报警模式等一些关键问题进行了研究。通过对京沪高速铁路各类典型构筑物的大量的地震响应统计分析 ,给出了机械式地震仪的预警水平 ,并提出了适于P波检测的M -R判别标准 ,为京沪高速铁路安全监控系统中地震预警系统的建设提供理论依据。     

卧具烘干房蒸汽噪声的治理

针对卧具烘干房蒸汽噪声严重的情况，利用小孔喷射消声原理，采用喷射小孔扩散式蒸汽消声器，并结合工程实际对消声器作了适当改进，治理效果均达到《城市区域环境噪声标准》ＧＢ９０９６—８２二类混合区标准。     

Predicting mass rapid transit noise levels on an elevated station

This study developed a noise prediction model for elevated mass rapid transit (MRT) platforms. Relevant physical and operational parameters (e.g. cruise speed, acceleration and deceleration rates for trains, building fa?ade setbacks and so on) were collected from the Bangkok mass transit system (BTS), the first elevated MRT system operated in Bangkok, Thailand. The equivalent continuous sound pressure levels (L(Aeq)) were collected from both sides of the MRT stations at the center of each platform. The relevant parameters were collected on both platforms and ground level, on both sides of MRT stations. These parameters were statistically tested to determine their correlation with MRT noise. The final model was built from highly correlated parameters using multiple regression analysis with a stepwise regression technique. Statistical evaluation showed a high degree of goodness-of-fit test for the model to the observed data. Therefore, it can be efficiently used for the projection of MRT noise in the affected areas.     

青藏铁路列车运行控制系统的安全性分析

分析了青藏铁路中多种不利因素对轨道电路参数的影响 ;提出了在青藏铁路不宜采用现行基于轨道电路的列车运行控制系统 ,而应选择基于通信的列车运行控制系统的理由 ;给出了系统的基本结构及提高系统可靠性的措施 ;与此同时 ,就人们关心的无线传输列车控制数据的可靠性和安全性难题 ,通过建立马尔可夫模型的方法进行了分析     

博乐市城市环境噪声分析及防治对策探讨

论述了博乐市自1992-2006年城市环境噪声状况,对交通噪声、生活噪声、建筑施工噪声及发展趋势进行了分析,并提出必须从城市总体规划的战略高度统筹实施综合整治,有效地控制噪声污染.     

机场内部噪声现状多指标评价与防治研究

为分析飞机噪声对机场内部人员的影响，在某军用机场场区内选取九个主要建筑物作为研究对象，对其进行现场噪声测量，在实测数据的基础上，采用多项指标进行机场内部噪声环境评价和分析。结果表明：机场工作人员一直暴露在高噪声环境中，而且各类噪声事件均对其工作和身体健康产生影响，内场营区的声环境质量比外场工作区稍好，但离标准声环境仍有较大距离。最后结合军用机场的特点提出一些有针对性的防治措施。