Historical evidence of climatic variability and changes,and its effect on high-altitude regions: insights from Rara and Langtang,Nepal

ABSTRACT

Climatic variability and its effects have been experienced in the high-altitude regions of Nepal for some considerable time. Most of the studies on local people’s perception available so far in Nepal on climate include with respect to weather changes, and almost none have been verified with satellite imagery. This study thus attempts to combine meteorological and satellite imagery for comparing local people’s perception so that a more robust validation can be established. Both qualitative (transect walk, key informant interview, focus group discussion and institutional visit) and quantitative (meteorological and satellite image) data and techniques were employed. Local people from Rara and Langtang in Nepal shared their observations and perceptions on the changing climate for the last three decades and the effects on them and their local microclimate. Apart from temperature, rainfall and snowfall anomalies, locals observed changes in the water sources and increasing drought along with alteration in the phenology of tree and agricultural crops as well as vegetation range migration. Satellite image analysis also confirms a change in snow cover as notified by the local people. This study shows that local people’s knowledge could be considered as a complement to the observed scientific evidences of climate change science and their perceptions can be used reliably where scientific data are lacking. Finally, perceived climatic risks, current gaps and future opportunities are discussed and some recommendations are suggested.     

张家港市河道水质时空分布特征研究分析

为探索张家港市河道水体水质现状及时空分布特征,本研究应用主成分分析对2018年张家港市13条重要河道中的水温、pH值、DO、电导率、浊度、高锰酸盐指数、总磷、氨氮等水质指标进行分析,识别主导水体变化的环境因子.研究得出：①2018年张家港市河道水质整体较好,大部分河道水体处于III类水;②主成分分析表明,氨氮、总磷（TP）、高锰酸盐指数（COD_Mn）和电导率（EC）的变化主导着研究区域水质变化,4个环境因子之间呈显著正相关;③空间分析表明张家港河是监测河流中污染最为严重的河流,港口桥监测断面为水质污染最严重区域,张家港市市区及东南区域河道污染劣于其他地区;④季节上水质污染程度为冬季 > 春季 > 秋季 > 夏季.通过多元统计方法对河道水质时空变化进行分析,为制定可持续的城市河流水污染控制策略提供了新思路.     

武汉集中式饮用水源地土壤重金属的时空分布特征及生态风险评价

研究了武汉市19个集中式饮用水源地土壤重金属Cd、Hg、As、Pb、Cr、Cu、Ni和Zn的时空分布特征,采用单因子污染指数和综合污染指数分析重金属污染程度,利用潜在生态风险指数评价重金属生态风险,通过相关性和聚类分析重金属的来源.结果表明,武汉市中心城区水源地土壤重金属的含量普遍高于远城区,同时长江干流附近的水源地土壤重金属含量普遍高于长江支流.Hg、As、Pb、Cr、Cu、Ni和Zn的单项潜在生态风险指数平均值均小于40,属于轻微风险程度.Cd的单项潜在生态风险指数平均值在80~160范围内,属于强度风险程度.武汉集中式饮用水源地土壤重金属的综合潜在生态风险指数平均值为142.12,属于轻微风险水平.相关性分析表明,武汉集中式水源地土壤重金属Cu、Pb和Cr来源相似,均与交通有关;Ni、As、Cr和Cu来源相似,均与冶金生产有关;Zn、Hg和Cr来源相似,均与防腐和催化化工有关.武汉白沙洲水厂和堤角水厂周边土壤长期定点监测表明,2017年后武汉集中式水源地土壤各种重金属含量均呈现显著下降趋势,其生态风险在未来将进一步降低.     

三峡水库香溪河库湾氮磷分布状况及沉积物污染评价

为了解三峡大坝蓄水完成之后香溪河库湾水体及沉积物中氮、磷的分布状况以及沉积物污染水平,2013年4月对三峡水库香溪河库湾进行调查采样,测定表层水及沉积物中氮磷含量和形态组成。结果表明,香溪河库湾表层水总磷(TP)含量范围为0.20~0.51 mg·L~(-1),总氮(TN)含量范围为0.54~2.25 mg·L~(-1),TP主要由磷酸盐(PO_4~(3-))组成,TN主要由硝酸盐(NO_3~-)以及氨氮(NH_4~+)组成,TP在空间上呈现从河口向库尾逐渐升高的分布格局,TN分布从河口向库尾逐渐降低。香溪河库湾沉积物中TP含量变化范围为642~1 189 mg·kg~(-1),TN含量变化范围为867~1 718 mg·kg~(-1),沉积物TP含量分布呈现上游高下游低,沉积物TN分布趋势呈现中间高,两头低。沉积物中TP主要由无机磷(IP)组成,有机磷(OP)所占比例较小,其中IP由钙磷(Ca-P)、铁铝磷(Fe/Al-P)组成,三者含量:Ca-POPFe/Al-P,且沉积物TP含量空间变化受到三者影响(P0.05)。采用单一因子标准指数法对香溪河库湾沉积物中TN、TP污染水平进行评价,结果表明,表层沉积物中TN、TP最低级别污染指数平均值为2.0和1.6,表层沉积物中TN、TP污染指数均超过最低污染水平,且TP的严重级别污染指数达到0.5以上。三峡水库三期蓄水完成以后,香溪河库湾表层水体中氮磷含量较初期蓄水有所升高,各样点沉积物中氮磷含量表现出相同的趋势,沉积物中不稳定磷释放对水体富营养化具有影响,香溪河库湾的表层沉积物已经受到一定的污染,磷污染水平较高。     

Evaluating the ecological benefits of wildfire by integrating fire and ecosystem simulation models

Fire managers are now realizing that wildfires can be beneficial because they can reduce hazardous fuels and restore fire-dominated ecosystems. A software tool that assesses potential beneficial and detrimental ecological effects from wildfire would be helpful to fire management. This paper presents a simulation platform called FLEAT (Fire and Landscape Ecology Assessment Tool) that integrates several existing landscape- and stand-level simulation models to compute an ecologically based measure that describes if a wildfire is moving the burning landscape towards or away from the historical range and variation of vegetation composition. FLEAT uses a fire effects model to simulate fire severity, which is then used to predict vegetation development for 1, 10, and 100 years into the future using a landscape simulation model. The landscape is then simulated for 5000 years using parameters derived from historical data to create an historical time series that is compared to the predicted landscape composition at year 1, 10, and 100 to compute a metric that describes their similarity to the simulated historical conditions. This tool is designed to be used in operational wildfire management using the LANDFIRE spatial database so that fire managers can decide how aggressively to suppress wildfires. Validation of fire severity predictions using field data from six wildfires revealed that while accuracy is moderate (30-60%), it is mostly dictated by the quality of GIS layers input to FLEAT. Predicted 1-year landscape compositions were only 8% accurate but this was because the LANDFIRE mapped pre-fire composition accuracy was low (21%). This platform can be integrated into current readily available software products to produce an operational tool for balancing benefits of wildfire with potential dangers.     

湿地水环境可持续性概念辨析

20世纪60年代以来,随着全球性的生态与资源危机的不断出现,使得人们不得不开始检讨传统的经济发展观,寻求探索新的发展模式。20世纪80年代初期,由联合国环境与发展委员会提出的可持续发展理论,得到了世界各国的普遍认同。然而,从1992年的巴西里约热内卢到2002年的南非约翰内斯堡,可持续发展在这十年间遭遇到理论与实验的双重＂困境＂。2001年,23名世界著名学者在美国《科学》上发表了《可持续性科学》的论文,想用这样一个严格的科学定义来替代意义分歧的可持续发展,避免可持续发展走入歧途。从此,人们越来越频繁地使用＂可持续性＂一词,但怎么实现可持续性则众说不一。学术界对＂可持续性＂和＂可持续发展＂概念的讨论也非常活跃且一直没有间断过。在此,从＂可持续性＂的历史成因出发,分析其在生物学、生态学及环境学等方面的含义,探讨＂可持续性＂一词在湿地水环境这一具体领域的应用,提出＂湿地水环境可持续性＂这一概念,并深入分析其内涵和主要特征,为后续湿地水环境可持续性度量作理论铺垫。     

Air‐Water Temperature Relationships in the Trout Streams of Southeastern Minnesota's Carbonate‐Sandstone Landscape

Carbonate‐sandstone geology in southeastern Minnesota creates a heterogeneous landscape of springs, seeps, and sinkholes that supply groundwater into streams. Air temperatures are effective predictors of water temperature in surface‐water dominated streams. However, no published work investigates the relationship between air and water temperatures in groundwater‐fed streams (GWFS) across watersheds. We used simple linear regressions to examine weekly air‐water temperature relationships for 40 GWFS in southeastern Minnesota. A 40‐stream, composite linear regression model has a slope of 0.38, an intercept of 6.63, and R² of 0.83. The regression models for GWFS have lower slopes and higher intercepts in comparison to surface‐water dominated streams. Regression models for streams with high R² values offer promise for use as predictive tools for future climate conditions. Climate change is expected to alter the thermal regime of groundwater‐fed systems, but will do so at a slower rate than surface‐water dominated systems. A regression model of intercept vs. slope can be used to identify streams for which water temperatures are more meteorologically than groundwater controlled, and thus more vulnerable to climate change. Such relationships can be used to guide restoration vs. management strategies to protect trout streams.     

路域土壤重金属含量空间变异的影响因子

以纵向岭谷区景洪-思茅段公路沿线为研究区,通过公路不同地点样线布设,对不同土地类型、地形和公路距离下的98个样点进行了野外植被和环境因子调查及土壤采样,在土壤表层0～20cm重金属全量分析的基础上对影响其分布的环境因子做了相关分析,得出研究区路域土壤重金属污染的空间分异特征及其主要的影响因子.研究结果表明,公路沿线不同土地利用类型下土壤重金属元素的含量存在较大的差异,但不同类型下含量的变化趋势较为一致,草地重金属污染最为严重,而次生林,原始林重金属含量较低;土壤养分也受土地利用类型影响,但相关分析表明,除了pH值、总钾、总磷和重金属关系较为密切外,研究区其它土壤养分和重金属之间的含量相关不显著.重金属元素含量之间相关性显著,表明该段道路重金属污染具有同源性,即来自道路.距公路的距离对重金属含量影响较大,农田土壤重金属含量随距离公路增加逐渐降低,而自然土壤中,变化趋势呈波动趋势.进一步对自然土壤中重金属的影响因子做了分析,结果表明,地形影响重金属的含量垂直分异,而典范对应分析也显示研究区距离、地形、土地覆被和土壤特性共同作用于土壤污染的空间变异.影响程度为距离＞土地覆被＞地形＞土壤.     

Spatial-temporal analysis of wetland landscape pattern under the influence of artificial dykes in the Yellow River delta

The influence of anthropogenic activities,especially artificial dykes,on the coastal wetland landscape is now considered as a serious problem to the coastal ecosystem.It is important and necessary to analyze changes of coastal landscape pattern under the influence of artificial dykes for the protection and management of coastal wetland.Our study aimed to reveal the quantitative characteristics of the coastal wetland landscape and its spatial-temporal dynamics under the influence of artificial dykes in the Yellow River delta(YRD).It was analyzed by the methods of the statistical analysis of landscape structure,five selected landscape indices and the changes of spatial centroids of three typical wetland types,including reed marshes,tidal fiats and aquaculture-salt fields.The results showed that:(1)Reduction of wetland area,especially the degradation of natural wetlands,had been the principal problem since the dykes were constructed in the YRD.The dykes created conditions for the development of artificial wetlands.However,the new born artificial wetlands were still less than the vanished natural wetlands.(2)Compared with the open area,the building of artificial dykes significantly speeded up the changes of landscape patterns and the aggravation of the landscape fragmentation in the closed area.(3)The changes of area-weighted centroids of three typical wetland landscapes were greatly affected by dykes,and the movement of the centroid of the aquaculture-salt field was very sensitive to the dykes constructed in the corresponding period.     

长三角地区吸收性气溶胶时空分布特征

利用2008～2017年OMI/Aura OMAERUV L2气溶胶数据集,研究了近10年长三角地区吸收性气溶胶的时空分布特征.结果表明:①在时间分布上,长三角地区气溶胶光学厚度(AOD)与吸收性气溶胶光学厚度(AAOD)的年际变化趋势一致,均为先升后降,于2011年达最高值,分别为0. 702和0. 056.月际变化显示AAOD高值多发生在1、3和6月,11月到次年1月明显增加.②在空间分布上,长三角地区AAOD呈北高南低分布,AOD与AAOD分布相似,AAOD 0. 05的高值区主要集中在安徽北部、江苏北部以及南京、杭州和金华等地区. AAOD与AOD季节空间分布均为春冬高,秋季较低,但二者不同的是,夏季AOD很大,AAOD却很小.长三角地区AAOD和AOD的年均空间分布与黑碳贡献量一致.