Climate and Land Use Effects on Hydrologic Processes in a Primarily Rain‐Fed,Agricultural Watershed

Anticipating changes in hydrologic variables is essential for making socioeconomic water resource decisions. This study aims to assess the potential impact of land use and climate change on the hydrologic processes of a primarily rain‐fed, agriculturally based watershed in Missouri. A detailed evaluation was performed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool for the near future (2020–2039) and mid‐century (2040–2059). Land use scenarios were mapped using the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects model. Ensemble results, based on 19 climate models, indicated a temperature increase of about 1.0°C in near future and 2.0°C in mid‐century. Combined climate and land use change scenarios showed distinct annual and seasonal hydrologic variations. Annual precipitation was projected to increase from 6% to 7%, which resulted in 14% more spring days with soil water content equal to or exceeding field capacity in mid‐century. However, summer precipitation was projected to decrease, a critical factor for crop growth. Higher temperatures led to increased potential evapotranspiration during the growing season. Combined with changes in precipitation patterns, this resulted in an increased need for irrigation by 38 mm representing a 10% increase in total irrigation water use. Analysis from multiple land use scenarios indicated converting agriculture to forest land can potentially mitigate the effects of climate change on streamflow, thus ensuring future water availability.     

Modeling Hydrological and Environmental Consequences of Climate Change and Urbanization in the Boise River Watershed,Idaho

The potential impacts driven by climate variability and urbanization in the Boise River Watershed (BRW), located in southwestern Idaho, are evaluated. The outcomes from Global Circulation Models (GCMs) and land use and land cover (LULC) analysis have been incorporated into a hydrological and environmental modeling framework to characterize how climate variability and urbanization can affect the local hydrology and environment at the BRW. The combined impacts of future climate and LULC change are also evaluated relative to the historical baseline conditions. For modeling exercises, Hydrological Simulation Program‐Fortran (HSPF) is used in parallel computing and statistical techniques, including spatial downscaling and bias correlation, are employed to evaluate climate consequences derived from GCMs as well. The implications of climate variability and land use change driven by urbanization are then observed to evaluate how these overall global challenges can affect water quantity and quality conditions at the BRW. The results show the combined impacts of both climate change and urbanization can lead to more seasonal variability of streamflow (from ?27.5% to 12.5%) and water quality, including sediment (from ?36.5% to 49.3%), nitrogen (from ?24% to 124.2%), and phosphorus (from ?13.3% to 21.2%) during summer and early fall over the next several decades.     

基于观测数据空间化的北京市PM_(2.5)时空分异

PM2.5在地球表面上的变化是连续的,但由于地面海拔起伏和站点分布的相对稀疏,直接内插法很难顾及这种情况。文章运用反距离权重(IDW)、Kriging、经验贝叶斯克里金法(EBK)、多元回归+残差内插的综合空间化手段,对北京市2015年1月的PM2.5数据进行分析。结果表明:利用多元回归+残差内插方法空间化更优,且PM2.5存在显著的正局部空间自相关,中度以上污染主要分布在北京市东南部和房山区。时间上,PM2.5质量浓度逐时均值呈"W"型。3 h尺度上,PM2.5质量浓度与相对湿度和露点温度正相关,与能见度、大气压和风速负相关,与温度不相关。     

太湖西岸水体污染物时空分布及解析

采用聚类分析、主成分分析及相关分析方法解析2015年太湖西岸入湖河流水质污染的时空分布特征及影响该区域水质的主要驱动因子。研究结果表明:时间上按污染程度将全年聚类为时段I(12月、1—3月)、时段II(11月、4—5月)和时段III(6—10月)3类;根据11项水质指标主成分分析提取3个主成分,可以解释75.49%的结果;时段I、时段II和时段III水质污染状况依次降低,空间上总体呈现出太湖西岸北部向南部递减的趋势;NH3-N、TN、Chl-a和SD是影响该水域水质的主要驱动因子。     

Case Study Comparing Multiple Irrigated Land Datasets in Arizona and Colorado,USA

While there are currently a number of irrigated land datasets available for the western United States (U.S.), there is uncertainty regarding in how they relate to each other. To help understand the characteristics of available irrigated datasets, we compared (1) the Cropland Data Layer (CDL), (2) Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Irrigated Agriculture Dataset (IAD), (3) Digitized Irrigated Land (DIL), and (4) Consumptive Use for Irrigation (CUI) data in Arizona and Colorado, U.S. These datasets were derived from multiple sources at various spatial resolutions and temporal scales. We found spatial and temporal trends among all of them. The datasets showed decreases in irrigated land area in Arizona during the 2000–2010 time period. The change ranges and ratios were similar in all Arizona datasets. Irrigated land in Colorado decreased in DIL and CUI but increased in IAD and CDL. The agreement within the same type of dataset during different time periods was from 60% to 80% (R² from 0.35 to 0.72) in Arizona and from 50% to 80% (R² from 0.23 to 0.68) in Colorado. DIL had the highest agreement (80%) in both states. The agreement among different datasets acquired at approximately the same time frame ranged from 51% to 63% (R² from 0.14 to 0.31) in Arizona and from 47% to 69% (R² from 0.32 to 0.40) in Colorado. The results from this study support a greater understanding of the multiresolution and multitemporal nature of these datasets for various applications.     

变温过程试验箱温度特性分析

目的研究环境试验箱变温过程中的温度分布特性。方法对具有代表特性的温度试验箱进行温场特性测定及分析,深入了解变温过程中试验箱的温场分布和影响温度特性的各个因素。结果变温过程中不同位置的温度重合性差,温变率越高,变温过程的非线性越明显。结论在变温过程中,试验箱内部测点和控制温度相比有一定的差异性,使得处于试验箱中的受试产品的不同部位,承受温度梯度应力。对于产品外表面、安装在外表面的零部件或靠近外表面的内部零部件,可能产生物理损坏或性能下降。故在使用中应充分注意这种温场特性对受试产品的影响。     

江津市紫色土中N、P养分元素区域空间变异性研究

利用地统计学,结合GIS研究紫色土土壤表层(0～20cm)的全氮、碱解氮、全磷和速效磷4种养分含量的空间分布特征结果表明,全氮和速效氮为正态分布,全磷和速效磷为对数正态分布;通过半方差函数分析,发现全氮存在纯块金效应,块金值为0.2,其它养分在一定间距内(50m)存在空间相关性,且为中等强度的空间自相关性(块金值与基台值之比在25%～75%之间);用普通克立格法和对数正态克立格法进行最优内插,做各种养分含量的分布图.结合GIS可充分了解土壤中N、P养分的空间变异性规律,并可进一步应用于精确施肥和农业非点源污染预测和控制.     

天津市PM2.5碳组分空间差异性及来源解析

2021年在天津市不同功能区共设置4个点位同步采集细颗粒物（PM_2.5）样品,测定了其中8种碳质亚组分的含量.结果表明,采样期间各点位ρ[有机碳（OC）]为3.7~4.4 μg·m^-3,ρ[元素碳（EC）]为1.6~1.7 μg·m^-3,OC浓度在中心城区最高,EC浓度差别较小.采用最小比值法对二次有机碳（SOC）进行估算,结果表明环城区二次污染较为突出,SOC占OC的比例达48.8%.各功能区碳质亚组分间的相关性强弱呈现出外围区>中心城区>环城区的特征,均表现出EC₁与OC₂和EC₁与OC₄相关性最强.正定矩阵因子（PMF）来源解析结果显示,道路扬尘源（9.7%~23.5%）、燃煤源（10.2%~13.3%）、柴油车尾气（12.6%~20.2%）和汽油车尾气（18.9%~38.8%）是天津市PM_2.5中碳组分的主要来源.不同功能区碳组分污染源存在差异,中心城区和外围区主要受汽油车尾气影响;环城区受二次污染和柴油车尾气的影响更为突出.     

中国交通运输碳排放强度时空交互特征及跃迁机制

采取多种空间分析的方法,对2002～2020年交通运输业碳排放强度的时空交互特征进行剖析,通过得到的时空跃迁类型与面板分位数模型进行嵌套来探究其跃迁机制,最后根据不同的跃迁机制引入地理探测器模型来考察影响交通运输业碳排放强度的不同因素之间的交互作用效应.结果表明: ①中国30个省区的交通运输业碳排放强度整体呈波动下降态势,在空间上的聚集水平也相对稳定.②ESTDA的时空交互特征表明,西北地区和周边邻接空间单位的关系不稳定,变化和波动较大.而东部沿海城市等经济发达地区已经形成了成熟的交通运输网络,因此局部空间格局也相对稳定,但仍有部分地区存在时空竞争性.③交通运输业碳排放强度时空跃迁可分为4类驱动或制约模式（人口-经济-城镇化制约模式;人口-经济-城镇化-设施制约模式;技术-消费-产业驱动模式和技术-产业-规制驱动模式）.大部分省份受低分位制约和高分位驱动两种模式的影响,仅有少部分省份受高分位制约和低分位驱动的作用影响,且绝大多数属于西北或西南地区.④根据得出的交通运输业碳排放强度跃迁机制进一步引入地理探测器模型,注重多因子的协调发展,加强区域间协同治理.     

河南省人类活动净磷输入的时空变化与影响参数

为探究河南省人类活动净磷输入状况,基于河南省18个省辖市(县辖市)行政单元统计数据,利用人类活动净磷输入量(NAPI)模型,核算河南省1990、1995、2000、2005、2010、2015和2019年人类活动净磷输入量.结果表明:在时间尺度上,1990～2015年河南省NAPI整体呈升高趋势,2015～2019年略...