基于面板数据的我国城市水资源水环境随机前沿面分析

科学客观的评价城市水资源利用差异、明晰造成差异的原因可以为决策部门制定适宜的用水供水政策提供科学依据.收集了全国283个城市15年的市辖区城市建设用地面积、市辖区年末总人口、市辖区供水总量、市辖区年末实有城市道路面积、市辖区地区生产总值、污水排放总量.采用基于面板数据的随机前沿面模型计算主要城市的水资源利用效率和水环境压力,结果显示我国主要地级城市水资源利用效率普遍不高,平均值为0.464,低于平均值的城市有167个,占评估城市的59.01%.城市水环境压力具有普遍性,平均水环境压力为0.347,高于平均值的城市有106个,占评估城市的37.46%.发挥区域地理优势,加强区域间技术合作,因地制宜的开展诸如调整产业结构,引进先进生产技术和设备等相关提高水资源利用效率、减小水环境压力的举措,是实现水资源利用和城市可持续发展的重要途径.     

武汉阳逻砾石层ESR地层年代学研究

武汉"阳逻砾石层"是长江中下游新生代的一个重要的岩石地层单位,其形成年代一直是地质和地理学者关注的重要问题。为了更深入地探讨这一问题,在它的两个典型的剖面中采集了8个样品进行ESR地质年代测试,测试结果表明,阳逻砾石层形成于新近纪早更新世中晚期。将本次ESR测年数据与前人的热释光的测年数据、江汉平原西缘和北缘相同岩石地层层位和相同地貌位置的砾石层的测年数据、长江中下游网纹砾石层的测年数据比较发现,它们具有较好的一致性。     

Maximizing Returns from Payments for Water‐Based Ecosystem Services: Incorporating Externality Effects of Land Management

Given the expansion of payments for water‐based ecosystem services (PWES) worldwide, two relevant issues are as follows: (1) determination of efficient allocations of payments among land managers, and (2) how this might change when paying one manager to implement a best management practice (BMP) to enhance an ecosystem service impacts the cost‐effectiveness of BMPs considered by other land managers not currently involved in PWES. Such externalities may be negative if diminishing returns dominate, or positive if mechanisms such as “social diffusion” dominate. We analyze how a planner should optimally allocate payments, depending on whether the expected externalities are negligible, negative, or positive. We employ (1) an optimal control model to gain insights on the problem’s dynamics, and (2) stochastic dynamic programming to determine optimal funding strategies using a specific application. The study contributes to the literature by identifying dynamically optimal PWES payment patterns, and illustrates how they should change when one accounts for externalities induced by the program. Because such impacts have not been addressed previously in a rigorous way, this treatment provides useful value added for PWES design and implementation.     

Assumptions beyond the science: encouraging cautious conclusions about functional magnetic resonance imaging research on organizational behavior

Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) is likely to become the major tool for studying the neural underpinnings of organizational behavior. It is a technique for brain imaging that, according to advocates, provides information about which areas of the brain are activated during organizational processes (e.g., leadership and decision‐making). In this article, we take a critical look at this tool from a technical perspective. In particular, we take the reader through the assumptions that must be made at the three main steps of the research process (study design, data capture, and interpretation of results) in order to draw conclusions about organizational phenomena from fMRI research. Applying this analysis to three case studies demonstrates the gap between what fMRI can actually tell us and the claims often made about the contribution of fMRI to understanding and improving organizational behavior. Our discussion provides researchers with a series of recommendations oriented toward optimizing the use of fMRI to help it live up to its potential in the field of organizational behavior and consumers with a means of evaluating fMRI research in order to draw appropriate and warranted conclusions. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

铬天青S-铝(Ⅲ)-聚乙二醇4000体系的共振散射光谱及其应用

在pH5 0的NaAc HAc缓冲溶液及非离子表面活性剂聚乙二醇 40 0 0存在下 ,铬天青S与铝 (Ⅲ )形成络合物微粒体系 ,在 40 0nm和 5 30nm处出现两个较强的共振散射峰 .共振散射光强度与Al(Ⅲ )的浓度在 0 0 84— 0 84μg·ml- 1 范围内呈良好的线性关系 ,考察了适宜的反应条件及共存物质的影响 .建立了一个共振散射光谱测定水中Al的方法 ,其结果与分光光度法一致 .     

平交道口冗余控制系统的建模及成本收益分析

将成本收益的分析方法应用在控制系统设计中。采用随机Petri网基于控制过程及系统可靠性对道口控制系统进行建模。在可靠性建模中,基于冗余系统的冷备及热备原理对控制系统的各个部件分别进行描述。基于统计数据确定非冗余控制系统Petri网模型参数。针对冷备及热备的冗余控制系统各部件的系统模型,通过仿真确定冗余系统相对非冗余系统所降低的道口事故率,继而计算出冗余控制的收益。将收益与增加设备的成本进行对比分析,结果表明,控制系统中不同部件的冷备及热备冗余都具有不同的成本收益。     

Identifying robust strategies for assisted migration in a competitive stochastic metacommunity

Assisted migration (AM) is the translocation of species beyond their historical range to locations that are expected to be more suitable under future climate change. However, a relocated population may fail to establish in its donor community if there is high uncertainty in decision-making, climate, and interactions with the recipient ecological community. To quantify the benefit to persistence and risk of establishment failure of AM under different management scenarios (e.g., choosing target species, proportion of population to relocate, and optimal location to relocate), we built a stochastic metacommunity model to simulate several species reproducing, dispersing, and competing on a temperature gradient as temperature increases over time. Without AM, the species were vulnerable to climate change when they had low population sizes, short dispersal, and strong poleward competition. When relocating species that exemplified these traits, AM increased the long-term persistence of the species most when relocating a fraction of the donor population, even if the remaining population was very small or rapidly declining. This suggests that leaving behind a fraction of the population could be a robust approach, allowing managers to repeat AM in case they move the species to the wrong place and at the wrong time, especially when it is difficult to identify a species’ optimal climate. We found that AM most benefitted species with low dispersal ability and least benefited species with narrow thermal tolerances, for which AM increased extinction risk on average. Although relocation did not affect the persistence of nontarget species in our simple competitive model, researchers will need to consider a more complete set of community interactions to comprehensively understand invasion potential.     

不同植被恢复模式对土壤有机碳分子结构及其稳定性的影响

为揭示不同植被恢复模式对土壤有机碳分子结构及其稳定性的影响机理,分别在浙江凤阳山国家级自然保护区的石梁岙和凤阳湖设置样地,采用13C核磁共振技术分析常绿阔叶林与杉木林、柳杉林与针阔混交林全土和不同粒级(0~0.5、>0.5~2.0、>2.0~5.0、>5.0 mm)土壤团聚体中有机碳的质量分数及其分子结构特征. 结果表明:①常绿阔叶林0~20 cm层全土w(有机碳)(12.84 g/kg)显著高于杉木林(9.98 g/kg),柳杉林(13.93 g/kg)显著高于针阔混交林(11.54 g/kg) (P<0.05). 不同植被恢复模式下,土壤团聚体w(有机碳)总体上均随着粒径的增大呈降低趋势. ②与杉木林相比,常绿阔叶林全土有机碳中w(烷氧碳)较高,w(烷基碳)、w(芳香碳)、w(烷基碳)/w(烷氧碳)、w(疏水碳)/w(亲水碳)则较低,显示常绿阔叶林全土有机碳稳定性较差;与针阔混交林相比,柳杉林全土有机碳中w(烷基碳)、w(烷基碳)/w(烷氧碳)、w(疏水碳)/w(亲水碳)较高,w(烷氧碳)则较低,显示柳杉林全土有机碳稳定性较好. 与0~20 cm层相比,不同植被恢复模式下>20~40 cm层全土w(烷氧碳)均明显降低,w(烷基碳)、w(烷基碳)/w(烷氧碳)、w(疏水碳)/w(亲水碳)均明显升高,有机碳稳定性变好. ③随着粒径的增大,不同植被恢复模式下土壤团聚体的w(烷基碳)、w(烷基碳)/w(烷氧碳)、w(疏水碳)/w(亲水碳)均呈降低趋势,w(烷氧碳)均呈升高趋势,说明团聚体结合的有机碳稳定性逐渐变差. 研究显示,不同植被恢复模式下的不同树种组成是影响土壤有机碳质量分数及其分子结构、稳定性差异的主要因素.      

1,10-菲啰啉-全氟辛烷磺酸(PFOS)体系共振光散射法测定痕量镉(Ⅱ)

在pH 6.8 Britton-Robinson(BR)缓冲介质中,镉(Ⅱ)与1,10-菲啰啉(Phen)作用后与全氟辛烷磺酸(PFOS)形成离子缔合物,使体系的共振光散射信号显著增强.最大散射峰位于307.0 nm处,其增强散射信号强度与镉(Ⅱ)的浓度在6.0—342.5 ng·mL-1范围内呈线性关系,据此建立了测定镉(Ⅱ)含量的共振光散射分析方法,检出限(3!)为0.6 ng·mL-1,研究了反应产物的RLS光谱特征,适宜的反应条件和影响因素,考察了共存物质的影响.该方法用于自来水和实验室废水样中镉(Ⅱ)的测定,RSD≤4.4%.