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91.
92.
Jugder Dulam 《Water, Air, & Soil Pollution: Focus》2005,5(3-6):37-49
A discriminate analysis method for probability forecast of dust storms in Mongolia has been developed. The prediction method
uses data recorded at 23 meteorological stations in the Gobi and steppe regions of Mongolia, including surface air pressure
and geo-potential height at the 500-hPa level on grid points, and weather maps from 1975 to 1990.
Weather elements such as air temperature, pressure, geo-potential height etc, which influence the formation of dust storms,
are prepared as predictors. To select the most informative/important predictors (variables), we used a mean correlation matrix
of variables together with the Mahalonobis distance, and correlation coefficients between dust storms and predictors with
an orthogonalization for removing correlated predictors. The most informative predictors for dust storm prediction are intensities
of surface cyclones and migratory anticyclones, passage of cold fronts, the horizontal gradients of the surface air pressure
in the cold frontal zone, cyclonic circulations from the ground surface up to the 500-hPa level, the geo-potential height
at 500-hPa level and its temporal changes.
Selected predictors are used in discriminate analysis for formulating dust storm prediction equations. Sandstorm data have
been classified into three classes, viz., strong, moderate and weak dust storms, depending on their intensities, durations
and areas covered. Predictions of the probabilities of dust storm occurrence use the prediction equations for each class.
The prediction is made from 12 hours to 36 hours.
Verification of the probability forecasts of dust storms is also shown. The accuracy of forecasts is 72.2–79.9% with the data
used for developing equations (dependent variables), in contrast to 67.1–72.0% with unrelated data for deriving equations
(independent variables). 相似文献
93.
A data analysis of three major Korean cities was conducted to assess roadside inhalable particulate matter 10 μm or smaller
in aerodynamic diameter (PM10), including temporal and meteorological variations, over a recent period of 4 to 6 years. The yearly roadside PM10 concentrations presented a well-defined increasing trend or no trend depending on the roadside monitoring station. Most mean
values exceeded or approximated the Korean standard of 70 μg/m3 per year for PM10. A representative roadside diurnal trend was characterized by a distinct morning maximum. In most cases, the Sunday roadside
concentrations were similar to or somewhat lower than the weekday concentrations, and the PM10 concentrations presented a well-defined seasonal variation, with the maximum concentration in March. The monthly maximum
concentrations observed in March were most likely attributable to Asian dust storms. In two metropolitan cities (Seoul and
Busan), the frequency of days with roadside PM10 concentrations exceeding the standard of 150μg/m3 per 24 h was much lower for the roadside monitoring stations than for the residential monitoring station, whereas in the
third city (Daegu), this result was reversed. Interestingly, the average maximum concentrations observed for the roadside
sites in Seoul and Busan during March were higher than those for the residential sites, suggesting that the roadside concentrations
responded more to the dust storms than the residential areas. The relationship between the pollutant concentrations and five
important meteorological parameters (solar radiation, wind speed, air temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation) showed
that the number and type of meteorological variables included in the equations varied according to the monitoring station
or season. Finally, the current results confirmed that attention should be given to the PM10 exposure of residents living near roadways. 相似文献
94.
Timothy N. McPherson Steven J. Burian Michael K. Stenstrom H.J. Turin Michael J. Brown I.H. Suffet 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2005,41(4):959-969
Effective watershed management requires an accurate assessment of the pollutant loads from the associated point and nonpoint sources. The importance of wet weather flow (WWF) pollutant loads is well known, but in semi‐arid regions where urbanization is significant the pollutant load in dry weather flow (DWF) may also be important. This research compares the relative contributions of potential contaminants discharged in DWF and WWF from the Ballona Creek Watershed in Los Angeles, California. Models to predict DWF and WWF loads of total suspended solids, biochemical oxygen demand, nitrate‐nitrogen, nitrite‐nitrogen, ammonia‐nitrogen, total Kjeldahl nitrogen, and total phosphorus from the Ballona Creek Watershed for six water years dating from 1991 to 1996 were developed. The contaminants studied were selected based on data availability and their potential importance in the degradation of Ballona Creek and Santa Monica Bay beneficial uses. Wet weather flow was found to contribute approximately 75 percent to 90 percent of the total annual flow volume discharged by the Ballona Creek Watershed. Pollutant loads are also predominantly due to WWF, but during the dry season, DWF is a more significant contributor. Wet weather flow accounts for 67 to 98 percent of the annual load of the constituents studied. During the dry season, however, the portion attributable to DWF increases to greater than 40 percent for all constituents except biochemical oxygen demand and total suspended solids. When individual catchments within the watershed are considered, the DWF pollutant load from the largest catchment is similar to the WWF pollutant load in two other major catchments. This research indicates WWF is the most significant source of nonpoint source pollution load on an annual basis, but management of the effects of the nonpoint source pollutant load should consider the seasonal importance of DWF. 相似文献
95.
96.
泛长江三角洲城市旅游经济发展的空间效应 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
基于泛长江三角洲2002~2012年市域面板数据,并借助面板SDM及空间效应分解方法,对区域城市旅游经济发展及其动力因子的空间效应进行实证分析。结果表明:1区域城市入境和国内旅游发展都存在明显的空间依赖性和空间溢出效应,当邻近城市入境和国内旅游发展水平每提高1%,将促进本城市入境和国内旅游发展水平增加约0.257%和0.312%;2区域城市入境和国内旅游发展各动力因子的空间交互作用也较为明显。旅游资源禀赋、旅游服务设施、旅游交通设施和城市经济发展水平对入境旅游发展具有显著的空间溢出效应,旅游服务设施和城市经济发展水平对国内旅游发展的空间溢出效应也较显著。3保障性因子多为正向溢出,吸引性因子多为负向溢出。前者体现了动力因子的空间模仿效应,后者反映了空间竞争效应。保障性因子和吸引力因子的空间效应强度及作用路径差异推动着区域旅游发展格局不断演进。 相似文献
97.
以揭示中国南方丘陵地区河谷城市的空间演变过程和特征为目的,以上饶市城区为例,在遥感与GIS技术的支持下,对1988~2013年间上饶市城区城市用地的时空演变过程、特征及驱动影响因素进行了研究。结果表明,1988~2013年的25 a间,上饶市城区城市用地呈现出快速增长的态势,城市形态的演变具有明显的时空特征:时间序列上,不论扩展幅度还是扩展速度,2001~2013年间的值均高于1988~2001年间的值,前后两个时段的扩展特征呈现出明显的差异性;空间格局上,上饶市城区以老城区的中心广场为中心向四周扩展,先后经历了放射性扩展、组团式分散扩展两个阶段,同时呈现出明显的方向分异性,西南和西为其主要扩展方向,而其东南方向的扩展速度最为缓慢。自然环境中的地貌对上饶市城区城市用地的扩展起到很大的限制作用,经济社会的发展、政策规划等因素成为城市用地扩张与时空演化的外在驱动因素。 相似文献
98.
基于改进粒子群算法和元胞自动机的城市扩张模拟——以南京为例 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
为合理利用多智能体算法解决城市扩张动态模拟问题,基于地理学理论和社会学规律对粒子群算法进行有针对性的改进,提出分段式粒子群算法(SPSO),并结合元胞自动机模拟复杂时空过程的能力,构建出适用于城市扩张模拟的地理元胞自动机SPSO-CA。在SPSO-CA中我们利用多时像的土地利用数据、交通路网数据和地形数据,挖掘出1995~2000年南京城市扩张的土地转换规则。再由此规则实现1995~2008年的南京市城市扩张过程的动态模拟。最后对比SPSO-CA、PSOCA及NULL模型结果得:SPSO-CA总精度86.3%,Kappa系数为0.792,Moran’s I为0.078,PSO-CA总精度83.6%,Kappa系数为0.755,Moran’s I为0.054,NULL模型总精度81.9%,Kappa系数为0.741,真实的Moran’s I为0.072。这表明无论是总精度还是空间一致性,SPSO-CA都优于PSO-CA和NULL模型,即用SPSO-CA模拟城市扩张是可行的。 相似文献
99.
环保大数据结合地理信息系统是实现城市环境总体规划空间化、促使环境管理转型的重要举措。城市环境总体规划是我国环境规划制度中的一项尝试,实现环境管理由末端治理转向前端控制的基础性、空间性、综合性、战略性规划。本文在分析GIS在环境规划领域的技术优势基础上,提出城市环境总体规划中生态保护红线划定、环境(生态)功能区划、要素空间管控、环境风险防控、产业布局调控五大技术需求。总结GIS在城市环境总体规划中的五大技术应用:空间基础数据处理与评价模型应用、标准化制图与空间信息表达、信息系统管理平台建设、专业软件数据转换、衔接"多规合一"平台等。最后,提出GIS支持下的环境功能区划和生态保护红线评估等功能模块开发、城环总规信息系统上的环境影响评价模块开发以及环境详细规划控制图则编制方法等探索方向。 相似文献
100.
在推进新型城镇化和生态建设的背景下,客观定量评价区域生态环境状态,是当前我国生态建设重要而紧迫的任务之一。高密度的人类活动会对自然生态系统产生超负荷的压力,通过生态承载力的分析能够定量测度这种状况,为区域可持续发展提供借鉴意义。基于生态足迹模型,计算了2008年和2013年武汉城市圈各县域单元的生态足迹/承载力,并进行了时空变化分析。研究发现武汉城市圈各县域单元的生态足迹和生态承载力在空间上存在显著的差异性,生态足迹逐年增加,生态承载力的变化相对较小,出现两级分化的现象。根据生态足迹/承载力进行跨区县生态补偿测算,得到2008年和2013年武汉城市圈48个县域的转移支付情况,表明如果运用财政转移支付的手段,整个区域能够达到生态系统供给和需求动态平衡的目标,缓解武汉城市圈的生态压力,实现武汉城市圈的可持续发展。 相似文献