四川色达县切都柯沟“7.8”泥石流灾害特征及危险性分析

2004年7月8日四川色达县歌乐沱乡切都柯沟发生了中等规模泥石流,最大流速10.4m/s,洪峰流量156m3/s,冲出方量约7×104m3,造成了一定的财产损失。泥石流稠度大,冲击力强,具有明显的直进性特征,为粘性泥石流。切都柯沟泥石流发育阶段为壮年(偏幼)期。切都柯沟为中度危险的泥石流沟,该沟一次泥石流最大堆积危险范围39902m2,最大堆积长度284m,最大堆积厚度4.32m。提出了相应的防治措施:一是在滑坡崩塌处进行加固,采取沟岸护坡等措施;二是在沟谷上游修建谷坊、拦挡坝,以降低流速,削减泥石流能量和规模。     

全球系统科学若干问题

全球系统科学是一门关于人类圈同地球圈层关系的学问。本文主要讨论(1)全球系统科学的研究对象;(2)全球系统的进化规律;(3)地球的最新圈层,(4)地球演化的新突变期;(5)全球问题的实质和前景等问题。     

建筑火灾增长阶段室内温度的时间特性研究

为研究建筑火灾增长阶段室内温度的时间变化规律,提出了高温烟气的主要几种热损失的计算方法,发展了受火室与未受火室及环境的热平衡方程,并采用牛顿-拉菲尔森法迭代得到受火室的温度变化.计算了慢速、中速、快速、超快速四种火灾增长速率下,受火室气相温度及烟气热损失随时间的变化.本文的研究方法及有关结果可以为建筑防火及安全疏散提供有力依据.     

MULTITEMPORAL SCALE HYDROGRAPH PREDICTION USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS1

Abstract: An artificial neural network (ANN) provides a mathematically flexible structure to identify complex nonlinear relationship between inputs and outputs. A multilayer perceptron ANN technique with an error back propagation algorithm was applied to a multitime-scale prediction of the stage of a hydro-logically closed lake, Devils Lake (DL), and discharge of the Red River of the North at Grand Forks station (RR-GF) in North Dakota. The modeling exercise used 1 year (2002), 5 years (1998–2002), and 27 years (1975–2002) of data for the daily, weekly, and monthly predictions, respectively. The hydrometeorological data (precipitations P_(t), P_(t-1), P_(t-2), P_(t-3), antecedent runoff/lake stage R_(t-1) and air temperature T_(t) were partitioned for training and for testing to predict the current hydro-graph at the selected DL and RR-GF stations. Performance of ANN was evaluated using three combinations of daily datasets (Input I = P_(t)), P_(t-l), P_(t-2), P_(t-3), T_(t) and R_(t-l); Input II = Input-l less P_(t) P_(t-l), P_(t-2), P_(t-3); and Input III = Input-II less T_(t)). Comparison of the model output using Input I data with the observed values showed average testing prediction efficiency (E) of 86 percent for DL basin and 46 percent for RR-GF basin, and higher efficiency for the daily than monthly simulations.     

云南稻核心种质苗期与孕穗期耐冷性特点及关系分析

以544份云南地方稻核心种质为材料,在昆明自然低温(苗期平均5.5～12.3℃,孕穗期平均17.8℃)冷害下,按籼粳、稻作区进行云南稻核心种质苗期耐冷性与孕穗期耐冷性的特点及关系研究.结果表明:(1)苗期耐冷性与孕穗期耐冷性密切相关,苗期耐冷性强的材料表现为孕穗期株高、剑叶长和宽、穗颈长、穗下节长、1～2节长、穗长较长、穗粒数较多,耐冷性较强.通过对苗期耐冷性的严格选择,可以间接获得孕穗期耐冷性较强的材料.(2)苗期和孕穗期耐冷性在籼粳间、稻作区间差异明显.籼粳间均表现为粳稻强于籼稻;稻作区间苗期耐冷性为滇中一季籼粳稻区和滇南单双季籼稻区最强,滇中一季籼粳稻区和滇西北高寒粳稻区孕穗期耐冷性较强,揭示了水稻苗期与穗期耐冷性的形成演化机制存在一致性和差异性.     

Case studies of conservation plans that incorporate geodiversity

Geodiversity has been used as a surrogate for biodiversity when species locations are unknown, and this utility can be extended to situations where species locations are in flux. Recently, scientists have designed conservation networks that aim to explicitly represent the range of geophysical environments, identifying a network of physical stages that could sustain biodiversity while allowing for change in species composition in response to climate change. Because there is no standard approach to designing such networks, we compiled 8 case studies illustrating a variety of ways scientists have approached the challenge. These studies show how geodiversity has been partitioned and used to develop site portfolios and connectivity designs; how geodiversity‐based portfolios compare with those derived from species and communities; and how the selection and combination of variables influences the results. Collectively, they suggest 4 key steps when using geodiversity to augment traditional biodiversity‐based conservation planning: create land units from species‐relevant variables combined in an ecologically meaningful way; represent land units in a logical spatial configuration and integrate with species locations when possible; apply selection criteria to individual sites to ensure they are appropriate for conservation; and develop connectivity among sites to maintain movements and processes. With these considerations, conservationists can design more effective site portfolios to ensure the lasting conservation of biodiversity under a changing climate.     

开花后小麦地上部镉、砷分布及其转运特征

为了探明小麦开花后叶片和茎节对籽粒中镉(Cd)和砷(As)累积的影响效应,采用田间小区试验,研究了山农28(SN28)和济麦22(JM22)两个小麦品种地上部各器官Cd和As的分布规律和迁移特征.结果表明,在灌浆期,小麦地上部的Cd主要分布在节中,Cd由节间3到节2、节间2到节1和叶鞘1到节1的转运能力显著强于其他部位.在成熟期,Cd主要分布于叶片中,Cd由叶鞘到叶片和由节1到穗轴的转运能力显著增强.此外,JM22中颖壳到穗轴和穗轴到籽粒的Cd转运能力显著低于SN28,使JM22的穗轴、颖壳和籽粒中Cd含量与SN28相比分别显著降低了22.3%、 40.8%和44.4%.同时,从灌浆期到成熟期小麦地上部的As主要分布于叶片中,且JM22颖壳和籽粒中As含量显著低于SN28,降幅分别为25.8%和33.3%.在灌浆期和成熟期,小麦中As转运系数由叶鞘到节显著高于叶到叶鞘和节到节间,平均增幅为438%和190%.此外,JM22中As由颖壳到籽粒和穗轴到籽粒的转运系数分别比SN28显著降低40.6%和44.4%.总之,开花后小麦旗叶、节1和穗轴调控了Cd转运及其在籽粒的累积,而小麦的叶3、旗...     

拔节期水稻光合碳输入的动态变化及其对施氮的响应:13C-CO2脉冲标记

水稻光合碳是稻田土壤有机碳的重要来源之一,其在土壤中输入与分配特征受水稻生长状况和土壤肥力的影响.施肥是影响水稻生长的关键因素,为了探讨施氮对水稻拔节期光合碳的传输动态的影响,应用稳定同位素13C-CO2脉冲标记技术,通过盆栽试验,研究光合碳在水稻-(根际/非根际)土壤系统中输入与分配的动态变化及其对施氮的响应.结果表明,施氮显著增加了水稻地上部和根系生物量,降低了水稻根冠比.随着水稻的生长,水稻植株的13C丰度逐渐下降,根际土和非根际土中13C丰度先减少再增加;施氮显著增加了根际土壤中13C丰度,较不施氮相比增加了9.5%~32.6%.施氮使水稻地上部和根系中光合13C含量显著增加,较不施氮处理分别增加了24.5%~134.7%和9.1%~106%.脉冲标记一次性输入的光合13C主要分配在水稻植株体内,不施氮和施氮条件下的分配率分别为85.5%~93.2%和91.3%~95.7%;施氮显著影响光合碳在水稻地上部、根际土和非根际土中的分配特征(P0.01),标记后26 d,与不施氮处理相比,施氮使光合碳在水稻地上部的分配增加了13.4%,在根际土和非根际土中的分配分别减少了21.9%和52.2%.因此,施氮增加了光合碳在土壤-水稻系统中的分配,但降低了光合碳在土壤中的累积.本研究进一步探讨了施氮条件下水稻拔节期光合碳的分配,为明确氮素对光合碳在水稻拔节期的动态变化以及对土壤有机碳库的影响,和深入了解农田土壤有机质累积提供理论依据和数据支持.     

通过多阶段暴露试验评价嘧菌酯对斑马鱼的急性毒性与发育毒性

嘧菌酯作为最畅销的甲氧丙烯酸酯类杀菌剂,是防治水稻病害的常用农药,其对水生生态环境的负面效应值得重视.为研究嘧菌酯对水生生物的危害,进行多阶段(成鱼、仔鱼、胚胎)斑马鱼毒性试验,分析了嘧菌酯对鱼类的急性毒性,同时,通过6 d胚胎发育试验,研究了嘧菌酯对鱼类早期发育阶段的影响.结果表明,斑马鱼3个生命阶段对嘧菌酯的敏感性(以96 h-LC50(致死中浓度)表示)顺序为:仔鱼(0.39 mg·L~(-1))胚胎(0.61 mg·L~(-1))成鱼(1.37 mg·L~(-1)).6 d胚胎发育试验结果发现,嘧菌酯可诱导斑马鱼胚胎出现一系列不良症状,包括孵化率下降、心率异常、生长抑制和心包水肿等.0.25 mg·L~(-1)的嘧菌酯可显著促进斑马鱼胚胎自主运动和心率,并能明显抑制孵化仔鱼的体长.0.6 mg·L~(-1)及更高浓度的嘧菌酯可明显抑制斑马鱼胚胎眼睛、体节、尾部和心脏的发育.研究显示,嘧菌酯对斑马鱼多个生命阶段均具有一定毒性,但对早期生命阶段毒性更强,因此,其对鱼类早期生命阶段的影响值得重视.     

Understanding the Factors That Influence Headwater Stream Flows in Response to Storm Events1

Stanfield, Les W. and Don A. Jackson, 2011. Understanding the Factors That Influence Headwater Stream Flows in Response to Storm Events. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 1‐22. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2010.00518.x Abstract: Headwater drainage features (first‐ to second‐order streams) are the capillaries of the landscape that, among other things, moderate the timing and volumes of water available to the riparian and aquatic ecosystems. How these features respond to summer rainfall is poorly understood. We studied how geology and an index of land use/land cover influenced peak flows following rainfall events in 110 headwater stream sites that were studied over a four‐month period during a drought year. Highest peak flows were observed in the most urbanized catchments and in poorly drained soils, but specific responses were variable depending on both geology and land disturbance. Redundancy analysis indicated that both surficial geology and land disturbance were important factors influencing peak flows under drought conditions. We conclude that responses of these headwater streams to individual storms during drought conditions are unpredictable from data collected using our methods, but increased peak flows were associated with increased urban and agricultural development, but mitigated by surficial geology. These findings demonstrate the challenges to accurately predict flow conditions in headwater streams during periods of extreme weather that concurrently have the greatest potential effect on biota. The combination of these challenges and importance of such events indicates the need to develop new approaches to study and manage these resources.