Simulation of vegetation dynamics and management strategies on south Texas, semi-arid rangeland

In this paper, we describe a model designed to simulate seasonal dynamics of warm and cool season grasses and forbs, as well as the dynamics of woody plant succession through five seral stages, in each of nine different plant communities on the Rob and Bessie Welder Wildlife Refuge. The Welder Wildlife Refuge (WWR) is located in the Gulf Coastal Prairies and Marshes ecoregion of Texas. The model utilizes and integrates data from a wide array of research projects that have occurred in south Texas and WWR. It is designed to investigate the effects of alternative livestock grazing programs and brush control practices, with particular emphasis on prescribed burning, the preferred treatment for brush on the WWR. We evaluated the model by simulating changes in the plant communities under historical (1974-2000) temperature, rainfall, livestock grazing rotation, and brush control regimes, and comparing simulation results to field data on herbaceous biomass and brush canopy cover collected on the WWR over the same period. We then used the model to simulate the effects of 13 alternative management schemes, under each of four weather regimes, over the next 25 years. We found that over the simulation period, years 1974-2000, the model does well in simulating the magnitude and seasonality of herbaceous biomass production and changes in percent brush canopy cover on the WWR. It also does well in simulating the effects of variations in cattle stocking rates, grazing rotation programs, and brush control regimes on plant communities, thus providing insight into the combined effects of temperature, precipitation, cattle stocking rates, grazing rotation programs, and brush control on the overall productivity and state of woody plant succession on the WWR. Simulation of alternative management schemes suggests that brush canopy removal differs little between summer and winter prescribed burn treatments when precipitation remains near the long-term average, but during periods of low precipitation canopy removal is greater under winter prescribed burning. The model provides a useful tool to assist refuge personnel with developing long-term brush management and livestock grazing strategies.     

Societal implications of sustainable energy action plans: from energy modelling to stakeholder learning

This article investigates the potential impact of sustainable energy action plans (SEAPs) on local development through a two-step methodology involving participatory planning and quantitative analysis. The first phase relies on a participatory system mapping (PSM) approach and generates a causal structure at the basis of the urban model. In the second phase, we transform the qualitative map into a system dynamic model which evaluates the effect of the SEAP on social, economic and environmental indicators. This methodology was applied to the case of Cascina Municipality (Italy). Through scenario analysis, we show that some indirect feedback can harm the achievement of the 20% emission reduction target. This process allows the local authority and stakeholders to evaluate the impact of emission reduction policies on CO₂ emissions and local development, thereby generating collective learning on the systemic implications of the plan. We show that this method can enhance the ambition of emission mitigation efforts by small towns.     

Using empirical models of species colonization under multiple threatening processes to identify complementary threat‐mitigation strategies

Approaches to prioritize conservation actions are gaining popularity. However, limited empirical evidence exists on which species might benefit most from threat mitigation and on what combination of threats, if mitigated simultaneously, would result in the best outcomes for biodiversity. We devised a way to prioritize threat mitigation at a regional scale with empirical evidence based on predicted changes to population dynamics—information that is lacking in most threat‐management prioritization frameworks that rely on expert elicitation. We used dynamic occupancy models to investigate the effects of multiple threats (tree cover, grazing, and presence of an hyperaggressive competitor, the Noisy Miner (Manorina melanocephala) on bird‐population dynamics in an endangered woodland community in southeastern Australia. The 3 threatening processes had different effects on different species. We used predicted patch‐colonization probabilities to estimate the benefit to each species of removing one or more threats. We then determined the complementary set of threat‐mitigation strategies that maximized colonization of all species while ensuring that redundant actions with little benefit were avoided. The single action that resulted in the highest colonization was increasing tree cover, which increased patch colonization by 5% and 11% on average across all species and for declining species, respectively. Combining Noisy Miner control with increasing tree cover increased species colonization by 10% and 19% on average for all species and for declining species respectively, and was a higher priority than changing grazing regimes. Guidance for prioritizing threat mitigation is critical in the face of cumulative threatening processes. By incorporating population dynamics in prioritization of threat management, our approach helps ensure funding is not wasted on ineffective management programs that target the wrong threats or species.     

Mapping shifts in spatial synchrony in grassland birds to inform conservation planning

Spatial synchrony, defined as the correlated fluctuations in abundance of spatially separated populations, can be caused by regional fluctuations in natural and anthropogenic environmental population drivers. Investigations into the geography of synchrony can provide useful insight to inform conservation planning efforts by revealing regions of common population drivers and metapopulation extinction vulnerability. We examined the geography of spatial synchrony and decadal changes in these patterns for grassland birds in the United States and Canada, which are experiencing widespread and persistent population declines. We used Bayesian hierarchical models and over 50 years of abundance data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey to generate population indices within a 2° latitude by 2° longitude grid. We computed and mapped mean local spatial synchrony for each cell (mean detrended correlation of the index among neighboring cells), along with associated uncertainty, for 19 species in 2, 26-year periods, 1968–1993 and 1994–2019. Grassland birds were predicted to increase in spatial synchrony where agricultural intensification, climate change, or interactions between the 2 increased. We found no evidence of an overall increase in synchrony among grassland bird species. However, based on the geography of these changes, there was considerable spatial heterogeneity within species. Averaging across species, we identified clusters of increasing spatial synchrony in the Prairie Pothole and Shortgrass Prairie regions and a region of decreasing spatial synchrony in the eastern United States. Our approach has the potential to inform continental-scale conservation planning by adding an additional layer of relevant information to species status assessments and spatial prioritization of policy and management actions. Our work adds to a growing literature suggesting that global change may result in shifting patterns of spatial synchrony in population dynamics across taxa with broad implications for biodiversity conservation.     

Drivers of Seabird Population Recovery on New Zealand Islands after Predator Eradication

Eradication of introduced mammalian predators from islands has become increasingly common, with over 800 successful projects around the world. Historically, introduced predators extirpated or reduced the size of many seabird populations, changing the dynamics of entire island ecosystems. Although the primary outcome of many eradication projects is the restoration of affected seabird populations, natural population responses are rarely documented and mechanisms are poorly understood. We used a generic model of seabird colony growth to identify key predictor variables relevant to recovery or recolonization. We used generalized linear mixed models to test the importance of these variables in driving seabird population responses after predator eradication on islands around New Zealand. The most influential variable affecting recolonization of seabirds around New Zealand was the distance to a source population, with few cases of recolonization without a source population ≤25 km away. Colony growth was most affected by metapopulation status; there was little colony growth in species with a declining status. These characteristics may facilitate the prioritization of newly predator‐free islands for active management. Although we found some evidence documenting natural recovery, generally this topic was understudied. Our results suggest that in order to guide management strategies, more effort should be allocated to monitoring wildlife response after eradication. Conductores de la Recuperación de Poblaciones de Aves Marinas en Islas de Nueva Zelanda después de la Erradicación de Depredadores     

Effects of payments for ecosystem services on wildlife habitat recovery

Conflicts between local people's livelihoods and conservation have led to many unsuccessful conservation efforts and have stimulated debates on policies that might simultaneously promote sustainable management of protected areas and improve the living conditions of local people. Many government‐sponsored payments‐for‐ecosystem‐services (PES) schemes have been implemented around the world. However, few empirical assessments of their effectiveness have been conducted, and even fewer assessments have directly measured their effects on ecosystem services. We conducted an empirical and spatially explicit assessment of the conservation effectiveness of one of the world's largest PES programs through the use of a long‐term empirical data set, a satellite‐based habitat model, and spatial autoregressive analyses on direct measures of change in an ecosystem service (i.e., the provision of wildlife species habitat). Giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) habitat improved in Wolong Nature Reserve of China after the implementation of the Natural Forest Conservation Program. The improvement was more pronounced in areas monitored by local residents than those monitored by the local government, but only when a higher payment was provided. Our results suggest that the effectiveness of a PES program depends on who receives the payment and on whether the payment provides sufficient incentives. As engagement of local residents has not been incorporated in many conservation strategies elsewhere in China or around the world, our results also suggest that using an incentive‐based strategy as a complement to command‐and‐control, community‐ and norm‐based strategies may help achieve greater conservation effectiveness and provide a potential solution for the park versus people conflict.     

Efficacy of created and restored nesting sites for the conservation of colonial Laridae in the South of France

By rapidly modifying key habitat components, habitat restoration is at risk of producing attractive cues for animals without providing habitats of sufficient quality. As such, individual fitness components, such as reproduction, could be reduced and restored habitats could become ecological traps. This risk notably appears by using artificial constructions in restoration projects, yet few studies have evaluated their efficacy in a robust way. We investigated this by analyzing 154 islets that were created or restored to improve the conservation status of 7 colonial Laridae species in the South of France. From 2007 to 2016, we compared occupancy dynamics and breeding parameters of these species between the restored sites and 846 unmanaged nesting sites. We also explored species’ preference for different nesting site characteristics and their respective effect on breeding parameters. Restored nesting sites were 2–9 times as attractive as unmanaged sites for all species except the Black-headed Gull (Chroicocephalus ridibundus). Colonization probability was up to 100 times higher in sites already used by other species the previous year and increased with distance to the shore until >0.2 when distance was over 250 m. Abandonment probability was 29–70% lower when breeding was successful the previous year in all species except the Sandwich Tern (Thalasseus sandvicensis). Productivity and breeding success probability were 2 times higher on managed sites. Distance from the shore was an important attractive characteristic of artificial nesting sites in all species. Other nesting site characteristics had species-specific effects on colonization, abandonment, and breeding success. Our results indicate that managed nesting sites are successful conservation tools for colonial Laridae in the Mediterranean and do not act as ecological traps. Our study showed that testing the ecological trap hypothesis is a robust way to evaluate the success of restoration projects of breeding habitats.     

How effective are River Basin Management Plans in reaching the nutrient load reduction targets?

Riverine nutrient loads are among the major causes of eutrophication of the Baltic Sea. This study applied the Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in three catchments flowing to the Baltic Sea, namely Vantaanjoki (Finland), Fyrisån (Sweden), and Słupia (Poland), to simulate the effectiveness of nutrient control measures included in the EU’s Water Framework Directive River Basin Management Plans (RBMPs). Moreover, we identified similar, coastal, middle-sized catchments to which conclusions from this study could be applicable. The first modelling scenario based on extrapolation of the existing trends affected the modelled nutrient loads by less than 5%. In the second scenario, measures included in RBMPs showed variable effectiveness, ranging from negligible for Słupia to 28% total P load reduction in Vantaanjoki. Adding spatially targeted measures to RBMPs (third scenario) would considerably improve their effectiveness in all three catchments for both total N and P, suggesting a need to adopt targeting more widely in the Baltic Sea countries.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-020-01393-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

铁山港海草生态区水体自净能力与水、生、化之间的关系

利用2008年1月～11月间对铁山港湾海草生态区进行的4个季节全面调查所获取的数据资料,首次探讨了该生态区水体自净能力与水动力特征及生物、化学因子之间的关系。结果表明:研究海区之所以具有较强的水体自净能力,其一与该海区具有强潮型的往复流水动力特征有关,在水体自净过程中起主导控制作用;其二与海区具有适宜的水温、快速的复氧能力、富足的溶解氧(DO)水平、最适合好氧微生物繁殖生长的环境条件有关,明显偏低的总有机碳(TOC)含量和丰富的总氮(TN)储量是有机物获得快速降解、营养盐获得快速再生、化学净化能力较强的重要体现;其三与生物链作用所体现的生化过程影响有关,DO含量与生物因子多呈显著以上负相关的季节变化特征以及三种形态N与生物因子在不同季节显示的相关性以事实佐证了这一点;而富足的TN储量、显著偏低的溶解无机氮(DIN)含量与繁盛的浮游动植物生物量及丰富的生物多样性同时出现的特征,正是研究海区具有较强生物净化能力的综合体现。与化学净化能力相比,生物净化能力显示出更强的优势,具有海草生态区的水体自净特点。     

氟苯胺同系物降解性能对比实验研究

利用驯化污泥研究了邻氟苯胺、对氟苯胺、2,4-二氟苯胺的好氧生物降解性能.结果表明,3种氟苯胺的好氧生物降解性能从高到低依次为,对氟苯胺、邻氟苯胺和2,4-二氟苯胺.降解动力学分析表明,在初始浓度在8～50 mg·L^-1范围内,除2,4-二氟苯胺在实验浓度8.56 mg/L时为一级反应,其他为零级反应.且它们的降解规律都符合Monod方程.污染物化学结构特性与其生物降解性能相关性研究表明,热力学参数与氟苯胺好氧生物降解性能相关性最好,空间参数次之,而电性参数最差.并研究了共代谢条件下葡萄糖和苯胺对2,4-二氟苯胺的好氧降解的影响,葡萄糖的引入有促进作用,而苯胺只在一定浓度范围内有促进作用.因而,氟苯胺的生产废水与生活污水合并处理以及多种组分混合废水处理是可行的.