The predictive validity of safety climate

PROBLEM: Safety professionals have increasingly turned their attention to social science for insight into the causation of industrial accidents. One social construct, safety climate, has been examined by several researchers [Cooper, M. D., & Phillips, R. A. (2004). Exploratory analysis of the safety climate and safety behavior relationship. Journal of Safety Research, 35(5), 497-512; Gillen, M., Baltz, D., Gassel, M., Kirsch, L., & Vacarro, D. (2002). Perceived safety climate, job Demands, and coworker support among union and nonunion injured construction workers. Journal of Safety Research, 33(1), 33-51; Neal, A., & Griffin, M. A. (2002). Safety climate and safety behaviour. Australian Journal of Management, 27, 66-76; Zohar, D. (2000). A group-level model of safety climate: Testing the effect of group climate on microaccidents in manufacturing jobs. Journal of Applied Psychology, 85(4), 587-596; Zohar, D., & Luria, G. (2005). A multilevel model of safety climate: Cross-level relationships between organization and group-level climates. Journal of Applied Psychology, 90(4), 616-628] who have documented its importance as a factor explaining the variation of safety-related outcomes (e.g., behavior, accidents). Researchers have developed instruments for measuring safety climate and have established some degree of psychometric reliability and validity. The problem, however, is that predictive validity has not been firmly established, which reduces the credibility of safety climate as a meaningful social construct. The research described in this article addresses this problem and provides additional support for safety climate as a viable construct and as a predictive indicator of safety-related outcomes. METHODS: This study used 292 employees at three locations of a heavy manufacturing organization to complete the 16 item Zohar Safety Climate Questionnaire (ZSCQ) [Zohar, D., & Luria, G. (2005). A multilevel model of safety climate: Cross-level relationships between organization and group-level climates. Journal of Applied Psychology, 90(4), 616-628]. In addition, safety behavior and accident experience data were collected for 5 months following the survey and were statistically analyzed (structural equation modeling, confirmatory factor analysis, exploratory factor analysis, etc.) to identify correlations, associations, internal consistency, and factorial structures. RESULTS: Results revealed that the ZSCQ: (a) was psychometrically reliable and valid, (b) served as an effective predictor of safety-related outcomes (behavior and accident experience), and (c) could be trimmed to an 11 item survey with little loss of explanatory power. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Practitioners and researchers can use the ZSCQ with reasonable certainty of the questionnaire's reliability and validity. This provides a solid foundation for the development of meaningful organizational interventions and/or continued research into social factors affecting industrial accident experience.     

Immunotoxicity of bisphenol a to Carassius auratus Lymphocytes and macrophages following in vitro exposure

Bisphenol A （BPA） is the monomer component of polycarbonate plastics and classified as an endocrine disrupting chemical （EDC）. The reproductive toxicity of BPA has been extensively studied in mammals; however, relatively little information is available on the immunotoxic responses of fish to BPA. In this study, we investigated the effects of BPA on the immune functions of lymphocytes and macrophages in Carassius auratus. The effects of BPA were compared with those of two natural steroid hormones, estradiol and hydrocortisone. Proliferation of the two types of cells in response to PHA was measured using colorimetric MTT assay. Macrophage respiratory burst stimulated by Con A was measured using chemiluminescence assay. Results showed that BPA （0.054-5.4 mg/L）, estradiol （0.0002-2.0 mg/L） and hydrocortisone （5-50 mg/L） significantly induced Carassius auratus lymphocyte proliferation while higher doses of hydrocortisone （500-5000 mg/L） appeared to be inhibitory. BPA （0.005-50 mg/L）, estradiol （0.005-800 mg/L） and hydrocortisone （0.005-500 mg/L） markedly enhanced macrophage proliferation, whereas higher doses of BPA （500-1000 mg/L） appeared to inhibit cell proliferation. Furthermore, higher dosage of BPA （50 mg/L） and hydrocortisone （50 and 500 mg/L） suppressed the macrophages respiratory burst while estradiol is stimulative all the doses tested （0.05-500 mg/L）. In conclusion, BPA could have immunotoxicity to Carassius auratus and functional changes of lymphocyte and macrophage in Carassius auratus may be different between low and high dosages.     

Biodegradation of phenol by free and immobilized Acinetobacter sp. strain PD12

A new phenol-degrading bacterium with high biodegradation activity and high tolerance of phenol, strain PD 12, was isolated from the activated sludge of Tianjin Jizhuangzi Wastewater Treatment Facility in China. This strain was capable of removing 500 mg phenol/L in liquid minimal medium by 99.6% within 9 h and metabolizing phenol at concentrations up to 1100 mg/L. DNA sequencing and homologous analysis of 16S rRNA gene identified PD12 to be an Acinetobacter sp. Polyvinyl alcohol （PVA） was used as a gel matrix to immobilize Acinetobacter sp. strain PDI2 by repeated freezing and thawing. The factors affecting phenol degradation of immobilized cells were investigated, and the results showed that the immobilized cells could tolerate a high phenol level and protected the bacteria against changes in temperature and pH. Storage stability and reusability tests revealed that the phenol degradation functions of immobilized cells were stable after reuse for 50 times or storing at 4℃ for 50 d. These results indicate that immobilized Acinetobacter sp. strain PD 12 possesses a good application potential in the treatment of phenol-containing wastewater.     

1957-2007年新疆天山山区气候变化对径流的影响

利用天山山区1957-2007年的气温、降水量及径流数据,借助非参数检验、小波变换等方法分析了天山山区气温、降水量及年径流量的变化趋势及多时间尺度相关。结果表明:玛纳斯河与塔里木河源流区年径流量、气温与降水量均呈显著增加趋势;在年代际上,塔里木河源流区气温存在11、18和22 a的主周期,降水量存在10、20与22 a的主周期;玛纳斯河气温在10与22 a处存在明显周期,降水量在20与22 a处周期性明显;同时,两源流区气温和降水量皆存在3~6 a的年际周期变化;塔里木河年径流量、气温和降水量的突变点分别发生在1993、1993和1992年,而玛纳斯河分别在1995、1988与1996年发生显著性突变;两流域源流区年径流量与气候因子存在显著的多时间尺度相关关系。     

基于“公地悲剧”和“反公地悲剧”解析气候变暖和低碳技术壁垒

化石燃料的大量使用所排放的温室气体使得全球气候日益变暖,低碳经济的提出成为了目前全球应对气候变暖的主要策略,而发展中国家在进行低碳技术引进时常常面临来自发达国家的知识产权贸易壁垒。本文从"公地悲剧"角度解析气候变暖的经济学根源,从"反公地悲剧"角度揭示低碳技术转让过程中发达国家以知识产权为借口制造技术壁垒的经济学缘由。     

1961-2012 年西藏极端降水事件的变化

利用18 个气象站点1961-2012 年逐日降水量资料,计算了10 个极端降水指数,采用滑动平均、线性回归、Mann-Kendall 非参数检验和Morlet 小波分析等方法,分析了西藏极端降水事件的变化规律。结果表明：西藏近52 a 连续干旱日数（CDD）呈显著减少趋势,最大5 d 降水量也趋于减少但不显著,大雨日数和强降水量的线性趋势不明显,其他6 个极端降水指数都表现为增加趋势且不显著。与全球、青藏高原及其周边地区比较,西藏CDD和连续湿日的变幅明显偏大,最大1 日降水量、强降水量和极强降水量的变幅明显偏小。除CDD外,极端降水指数的变化趋势与海拔高度呈显著的二次曲线关系,仅有中雨日数的变化趋势与经度呈显著的正相关。在近52 a 的时间尺度上各项极端降水指数都存在3～4 a 显著周期,多数指数也存在12a、15 a 和16 a 的周期。在时间转折上,CDD的突变点时间较早,从1974 年开始;中雨日数、连续湿日和年总降水量的突变点发生在20 世纪80 年代末。从空间分布来看,那曲地区西部是极端降水指数变化最为显著的区域,雅鲁藏布江中游大部的多数极端降水指标趋于下降,而山南地区南部、林芝地区东南部的降水极值和降水强度都在增加。     

阿勒泰地区雾的气候特征与变化趋势及其对人体的影响研究

利用1961年-2012年阿勒泰地区气象观测资料,对雾的时空分布特征和变化趋势进行分析。结果表明:阿勒泰地区雾日数在时间分布上,初春的3月出现最多;冬季(12月-翌年2月)雾出现的比例最高,占37.6%。20世纪80年代年雾出现日数最多,2000年至今最少。阿勒泰地区雾日数在空间分布上也不是很均匀,区域性为西部的吉木乃、哈巴河县最多,东部的富蕴、青河县最少。阿勒泰地区雾出现日数年变化率与各县站的变化趋势一致,均呈明显的下降趋势,在1966年出现了减少的突变现象。R/S方法分析表明,各县站未来的年雾出现日数仍会呈减少趋势,雾天对人体有一定的影响。     

三峡库区典型消落带土壤微生物生物量碳、氮的变化特征及其影响因素探讨

本文以三峡库区王家沟一典型消落带为研究对象,选择180、175、165和155 m这4个高程以探讨水位变化对土壤微生物生物量碳(SMBC)和微生物生物量氮(SMBN)的影响.其中,175、165和155m高程坐落在消落带内,分别表现为短、中和长期淹水,180 m高程作为对照,为永不淹水的陆地.土壤样品的采集深度为0~20 cm,每周采集一次.结果表明,180 m高程处土壤有机碳(SOC)和全氮(TN)均无明显的季节变化,而175 m高程处SOC和TN季节变化明显,表现为春夏季高于秋冬季;各高程上的SMBC和SMBN及其分配比例呈现出秋高夏低的季节变化形态,表明消落带夏季高温低湿的土壤环境限制了微生物活性及土壤有机碳氮的周转速率.数据分析表明,与180 m高程相比,消落带上的175 m和165 m高程SOC、TN、SMBC及微生物商、SMBN及其分配比例均得到不同程度的升高,而155 m高程除了SMBN及其分配比例与对照无显著差异外,其他指标均显著低于对照,表明与未淹水对照点相比较,中短期淹水有利于提高消落带土壤碳氮含量及周转速率和微生物生物量,而长期受到江水淹没胁迫的土壤则会抑制土壤碳氮以及SMBC含量,并降低SOC的周转速率.相关分析表明,SMBC和SMBN均与地下5 cm处温度和p H呈极显著负相关,说明地下5cm处的温度以及p H对土壤微生物生物量有强烈的影响.     

基于增强回归树的城市PM2.5日均值变化分析:以常州为例

利用2014年12月至2015年11月常州市区6个国控监测站空气污染物浓度逐时数据,分析了PM_(2.5)浓度季节变化特征,采用增强回归树模拟分析了PM10、4种气态污染物和7个气象因子对ρ(PM_(2.5))日变化的贡献.结果表明,常州市区PM_(2.5)污染季节差异明显,冬季污染严重且持续时间长,夏季污染较轻.四季ρ(PM_(2.5))空间分布特征存在一定差异,但各季内不同监测站差异较小.增强回归树对ρ(PM_(2.5))日均值进行模拟和验证得到,训练数据的相关性为0.981,交叉验证的相关性为0.957.此外,模拟值与实测值的标准化平均偏差为1.80%,标准化平均误差为10.41%,可见模型拟合效果较好.PM10、气态污染物、气象因子和区域输送及扩散这4种影响类型对全年ρ(PM_(2.5))日均值差异的贡献率分别为23.4%、28%、36.2%和12.6%,表明在对ρ(PM_(2.5))日均值差异的影响上,气象因子二次形成一次源区域输送及扩散.在对ρ(PM_(2.5))日均值差异贡献率大于5%的因子中,ρ(PM_(2.5))日均值与PM10、相对湿度、CO和O3正相关,与温度、SO2和混合层高度负相关,与大气压和NO2关系较复杂.区域输送及扩散方面,东南风向、偏西风向和偏北风向等上风向周边城市的污染物输送对常州市区PM_(2.5)污染存在较大的负面影响.     

气候移民的概念与类型探析

气候变化问题、气候变化及其不利影响所导致的现实或潜在的大量气候移民已成为21世纪人类社会面临的严峻挑战,是现阶段人类社会普遍关注的核心问题之一。通过对社会发展进程中各种主客观因素叠加作用导致的渐变缓发性气候风险、极端突变灾害性气候风险等诸种气候变化现象所导致的气候移民问题的剖析,结合已有的研究文献对历史、现实条件下气候变化导致的气候移民产生的机理与逻辑展开分析,以把握其演变发展趋势。从而对气候移民进行概念上的辨析、梳理和界定,以揭示气候移民的实体内涵、本质特点与根本属性;并依据移民的迁移意愿、迁移时限长短、迁移的空间区域和距离远近、导致气候移民的不同致因对其进行类型上的划分与归类,以期加深我们对气候移民问题的深入理解与认知,更好把握气候移民问题产生的本质与演变发展规律。从而为有效破解各种气候变化现象导致的气候移民难题,化解气候移民面临的各种社会风险,促进社会的良性运行与协调发展做出初步探索。