海面上升影响山地海岸的两种机制及对策——以山东半岛东北部为例

根据距今4000a以来海面波动与河谷地貌、海岸地貌发育之间的关系,未来海面上升有可能导致入海河流发生溯源堆积,使河床纵剖面发生调整,海面上升在导致某些岸段蚀退的同时,还有可能使某些岸段的海淤进;河流溯源堆积导致的入海泥沙减少,可能使原有海岸蚀退加剧．对海面上升可能给山地海岸资源与环境带来的影响,建议加强观测与研究,进行合理规划与管理,并采取必要的工程措施．     

‘Coastal squeeze’— an historical perspective

The use of salt marsh for agricultural use has probably been going on for thousands of years. This paper will look at the situation in southeast England, particularly the Wash. Here enclosure for extended grazing and over the last several hundred years, for arable cultivation, may have taken place since Roman Times. An enclosure of Freiston Shore salt marsh (1979) and a proposed further enclosure at Gedney Drove End at about the same time raised concerns about the cumulative effect of these developments on nature conservation interests. These concerns prompted the nature conservation agencies to oppose the Gedney Drove End enclosure. Though the conservation argument did not persuade the Government that no further enclosure should take place, economic circumstances changed such that the pressure for the creation of new agricultural land diminished. This marked the end of ‘reclamation’ in the Wash. Since then, in the UK at least, there have been no further enclosures of salt marsh for agriculture. What were the arguments that lead to this change? Up to this point the perceived wisdom, in the Wash at least, was that as enclosure took place new inter-tidal land was created to seaward— with no net loss of inter-tidal land. Today we accept that this is not the case and a policy of managed re-alignment has increasingly been adopted in England, at sites ranging from the Porlock shingle ridge in north Devon to the salt marshes of Freiston in the Wash. It is argued that recognition of ‘coastal squeeze’ probably began in the Wash some 20 years ago. It would appear that we are now witnessing a reversal of this trend. How far will it take us? Will we see a return of the large expanses of tidal swamp around the Wash and elsewhere along the southern North Sea coast? Is this an inevitable consequence of global warming? This paper provides an historical perspective of the issues and arguments that have led us to recognize ‘coastal squeeze’ and the importance of dynamic coast, including the European Commission’s ‘EURosion Project’, which reported in 2004 (Salman et al. 2004).     

海平面上升对珠江三角洲水资源的影响

本文简要分析了全球海平面上的升的原因，预测了珠江三角洲地区海平面可能上升的数值，调查分析了珠江三角洲水资源利用和保护现状及存在的问题，探讨了海平面上升给水资源利用和保护带来的影响，主要从城镇供水，农业灌溉，水环境污染，城镇排水，水生生态的改变５个方面进行分析，并提出了相应的对策。     

Distributed process modeling for regional assessment of coastal vulnerability to sea-level rise

Sea-level rise involves increases in the coastal processes of inundation and erosion which are affected by a complex interplay of physical environmental parameters at the coast. Many assessments of coastal vulnerability to sea-level rise have been detailed and localised in extent. There is a need for regional assessment techniques which identify areas vulnerable to sea-level rise. Four physical environmental parameters – elevation, exposure, aspect and slope, are modeled on a regional scale for the Northern Spencer Gulf (NSG) study area using commonly available low-resolution elevation data of 10 m contour interval and GIS-based spatial modeling techniques. For comparison, the same parameters are modeled on a fine-scale for the False Bay area within the NSG using high-resolution elevation data. Physical environmental parameters on the two scales are statistically compared to coastal vulnerability classes as identified by Harvey et al. [1] using the Spearman rank-correlation test and stepwise linear regression. Coastal vulnerability is strongly correlated with elevation and exposure at both scales and this relationship is only slightly stronger for the high resolution False Bay data. The results of this study suggest that regional scale distributed coastal process modeling may be suitable as a first cut in assessing coastal vulnerability to sea-level rise in tide-dominated, sedimentary coastal regions. Distributed coastal process modeling provides a suitable basis for the assessment of coastal vulnerability to sea-level rise of sufficient accuracy for on-ground management and priority-setting on a regional scale.     

典型北方滨海核电厂温排水混合区边缘温升限值研究

随着我国电力事业的快速发展,电厂循环冷却水(温排水)的余热排放对受纳水体生态环境造成的负面热影响(即热污染)已日益引起社会关注。基于国内现有的温排水排放控制标准可执行性不强的现状,对我国电厂温排水的热污染控制标准的基础技术要素——温排水混合区边缘温升限值进行了研究。以我国北方某典型滨海核电厂址邻近海域的代表性海洋生物为研究对象,以各季节不同受试物种最大临界温度(CTM)的统计分析结果,作为确定该厂址温排水混合区边缘温升限值的主要依据。并结合法规调研法,最终确定该典型滨海核电厂址温排水混合区边缘温升限值的推荐值为3.6℃。     

Sea-level rise and coastal vulnerability: an assessment of Andhra Pradesh coast,India through remote sensing and GIS

The eustatic sea-level rise due to global warming is predicted to be about 18 to 59 cm by the 2100 (IPCC 2007), which necessitates identification and protection of vulnerable sections of coasts. Assessment of vulnerability level of Andhra Pradesh (AP) coast as an example is demonstrated in this study using five physical variables, namely coastal geomorphology, coastal slope, shoreline change, mean spring tide range, and significant wave height. A coastal vulnerability index was prepared by integrating the differentially weighted rank values of the five variables, based on which the coastline is segmented into low-, moderate-, high-, and very high risk categories. About 43% of the 1,030-km-long AP coast is under very high-risk, followed by another 35% under high-risk if the sea level rises by ~0.6 m displacing more than 1.29 million people living within 2.0 m elevation in 282 villages in the region.     

室内火灾升温速率的试验研究

在大量试验数据的基础上,通过分析室内火灾热烟气层温度的变化,研究了热烟气层的升温速率与内衬材料的热惯性、开口的通风因子、燃料面积及热烟气层温度本身等因素的关系,并对研究结果在实际消防工作中的应用进行了初步探讨。     

Explosions of gasoline–air mixture in the tunnels containing branch configuration

In order to investigate the effects of branch tunnels on explosion propagation, experiments were performed in five different configuration tunnels (straight configuration and configurations with 1 branch, 2 branches, 3 branches and 4 branches). Pressure and flame transducers were used to record the history of the pressure development and track the velocity of the flame front. It was shown that the branch tunnels had ability to enhance the maximum overpressure, rate of overpressure rise, and deflagration index (K_G) of the gasoline–air mixture explosion due to the turbulence induced by the branch tunnels. The overpressure rise rate and K_G of the explosion increased as a function of the number of branch tunnels. Experiments also showed that the maximum flame speed increased as the branch number increasing from 0 to 3 due to the enlargement of turbulence induced by the branch tunnels. However, an increase of branch number did not always lead to an enhancement of flame speed because the heat loss was intensified resulting from the increase of flame surface caused by the branch tunnels. When the number of branch tunnels exceeded 3, the maximum flame speed dropped.     

海面上升对太湖流域经济影响的模拟与评估

以地处长江三角洲核心部位的太湖流域为研究区,应用Bootstrap方法预测了各市县至2030年的GDP值,进而基于海面-地面系统演变模型,就海平面上升到2030年对区域经济的影响进行了多场景模拟与评价。结果表明:由于区域内经济发达的市县多处于地势低平的地区,未来海面上升对太湖流域区域经济发展影响极为显著,其影响程度主要取决于各县市地形地貌条件及其经济发展水平。当海面上升值为23 cm、31 cm和60 cm时,受影响面积和GDP损失分别高达13.2%～24.0%和15.7%～26.9%。海面上升影响表现出区域分异的特征,以太湖、长江及其各支流为中心向外扩张,中部平原、洼地受影响较为严重,外围的北部和东部受影响较小。区域未来发展应考虑分区治理及区域内联合策略,以积极应对海面上升的可能威胁。     

Impact of Climate Change on Urban Agglomerations in China＇s Coastal Region

Climate change and urbanization issues are the two key factors that make humans liable to be affected by disasters, which are overlapped in urban agglomeration. The five big urban agglom- erations of C...