电气火灾一次短路熔痕金相组织特征参数定量分析

电气火灾一次短路熔痕鉴别和判定对分析火灾原因和事故认定至关重要,而目前金相分析方法目前处于经验和半经验水平,缺乏定量分析手段.本文开展不同电流条件下(100A至300A,间隔为20A)铜导线一次短路模拟实验,制作相应短路熔痕金相图谱.同时引入描述金相组织特征参数,基于Image - ProPlus应用数字图像处理技术提取图谱的金相组织特征参数量化指标,讨论金相组织晶粒和孔洞尺寸变化的特点,实现金相微观组织特征参数和电流之间的关系数据对比分析,探讨一次短路熔痕金相组织的量化判据和变化规律.     

大变形隧道长短锚杆支护机理及设计应用

以常用锚杆支护理论为依托,根据锚杆的受力特点,分析了大变形隧道长短锚杆各自的支护机理,提出了其参数的设计方法,并通过算例计算和数值模拟验证的方式对其合理性进行了验证.结果表明,大变形隧道长短锚杆组合支护中,短锚杆加固浅部围岩形成承载拱结构,长锚杆将浅部承载拱结构稳定到深部围岩,两者联合支护有效地控制了隧道的大变形,支护方式有救,参数设计方法合理,保证了隧道的支护效果,对隧道支护设计具有重要的工程参考意义.     

The safety chain: A delusive concept

Various governments have defined a so-called safety chain to structure their efforts in the field of risk management for low-probability disasters. The safety chain typically consists of the following components: proaction, prevention, preparation, repression. While the terminology suggests that the safety chain should be interpreted a series system, the safety chain more closely resembles a parallel system. This has important implications: the safety chain is not as weak as its weakest link; unreliable links need not always be strengthened as it will often be more efficient to rely on a few layers of protection, or just one. To avoid misguided efforts caused by the confusing terminology ‘safety chain’, we propose the use of the term ‘layers of protection’, as is currently the case in the Dutch flood safety policy. Furthermore, we show that imperfect preparedness for low-probability disasters is often perfectly defensible or rational, given the differences between the cost-effectiveness of investments in prevention and disaster preparedness.     

循环经济持续发展的价值链机制

循环经济的正常运行,必须有价值链的支持。循环型产业的价值形成机制是循环经济持续发展的关键。而且,经济价值链一旦形成,其意义就不仅在经济本身,还具有社会价值和生态价值的重要意义,是在更高的意义上对经济价值、社会价值和生态价值的整合。     

城市燃气管线泄漏致灾灾害链研究

为了研究城市燃气管线泄漏致灾灾害链,对灾害链的形成机理进行分析,建立灾害链模型,并通过计算灾害链发生概率对灾害链断链减灾方法进行研究。结果表明,城市燃气管线泄漏致灾灾害链可分为致灾环、激发环、损害环三部分;灾害链中因管道裂纹导致的中毒窒息灾害事故、管道穿孔导致的中毒窒息灾害事故及火灾等链条的发生概率较高;致灾环是灾害链断链减灾的关键环节,在城市安全管理中应落实应急预案制度并加强对城市居民的防灾减灾安全教育力度。     

基于熵理论的重大事故复杂链式演化机理及其建模

为完善重大事故演化的本质规律和探究事故后果累积放大原理,从安全物质学的视角提出事故链定义和形成机理,并解析其内涵;通过物质、能量和信息表征事故链演化过程的载体反映;基于物质流、能量流和信息流构建事故链式演化概念模型;基于熵理论和耗散结构理论论述事故阶段演化特性;在此基础上,提炼事故预防与控制策略框架。研究结果丰富了事故链式演化理论,可为事故预防与控制提供更深层次的理论基础。     

基于SPA-Markov的飞行安全态势评估与预测研究

为提高航空公司飞行安全风险控制和预测水平,利用QAR数据作为支撑,结合集 对分析和马尔科夫理论建立飞行安全态势评估模型。该模型以QAR超限事件为评估指标 ,采用集对分析中的联系度来描述安全风险等级;运用马尔科夫理论确定安全状态的转 移概率矩阵,以预测飞行安全动态变化趋势。最后以某公司A320机队6个月发生频率最 高的7类超限事件对模型进行验证。结果表明:该公司2月、6月和预测月份的安全状态 为一般风险,其他月份为低风险;总体安全状态也为一般风险,并有增加趋势。     

Mesomelic campomelia,polydactyly and Dandy–Walker cyst in siblings

The present report describes two fetuses, one female and one male, with thus far undescribed skeletal malformations. The mother was a gravida 2, para 0. Both pregnancies were terminated in the second trimester because of multiple congenital anomalies diagnosed ultrasonographically resembling a short rib-polydactyly syndrome. Both fetuses were found to have postaxial hexadactyly of the hands and feet, marked bilateral campomelia of the forearm and shank bones, and a Dandy–Walker cyst. In addition, the fourth ventricle was dilated in the first sibling and the second sibling had an inverse intestinal malrotation. A literature search failed to reveal similar observations. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

环境放射性研究现状

本文主要评述环境放射性研究的现状及进展，包括环境放射性的来源，环境中放射性核素的种类以及它们在食物链中的转移，并讨论了环境放射性研究的新动向。     

基于层次分析法的油锯伐木安全作业多目标评价

本文采用层次分析法(AHP)对影响油锯伐木作业的各种因素进行综合评价.通过比较矩阵计算各子指标权向量和组合权向量,得到各指标影响油锯伐木作业安全的权重排序表,从而为完善油锯伐木安全作业管理提供了科学依据.