A hybrid model for human factor analysis in process accidents: FBN-HFACS

Human factors are the largest contributing factors to unsafe operation of the chemical process systems. Conventional methods of human factor assessment are often static, unable to deal with data and model uncertainty, and to consider independencies among failure modes. To overcome the above limitations, this paper presents a hybrid dynamic human factor model considering Human Factor Analysis and Classification System (HFACS), intuitionistic fuzzy set theory, and Bayesian network. The model is tested on accident scenarios which have occurred in a hot tapping operation of a natural gas pipeline. The results demonstrate that poor occupational safety training, failure to implement risk management principles, and ignoring reporting unsafe conditions were the factors that contributed most failures causing accident. The potential risk-based safety measures for preventing similar accidents are discussed. The application of the model confirms its robustness in estimating impact rate (degree) of human factor induced failures, consideration of the conditional dependency, and a dynamic and flexible modelling structure.     

Toward harmonizing prospective effectiveness assessment for road safety: Comparing tools in standard test case simulations

Abstract

Objective: With the overall goal to harmonize prospective effectiveness assessment of active safety systems, the specific objective of this study is to identify and evaluate sources of variation in virtual precrash simulations and to suggest topics for harmonization resulting in increased comparability and thus trustworthiness of virtual simulation-based prospective effectiveness assessment.

Methods: A round-robin assessment of the effectiveness of advanced driver assistance systems was performed using an array of state-of-the-art virtual simulation tools on a set of standard test cases. The results were analyzed to examine reasons for deviations in order to identify and assess aspects that need to be harmonized and standardized. Deviations between results calculated by independent engineering teams using their own tools should be minimized if the research question is precisely formulated regarding input data, models, and postprocessing steps.

Results: Two groups of sources of variations were identified; one group (mostly related to the implementation of the system under test) can be eliminated by using a more accurately formulated research question, whereas the other group highlights further harmonization needs because it addresses specific differences in simulation tool setups. Time-to-collision calculations, vehicle dynamics, especially braking behavior, and hit-point position specification were found to be the main sources of variation.

Conclusions: The study identified variations that can arise from the use of different simulation setups in assessment of the effectiveness of active safety systems. The research presented is a first of its kind and provides significant input to the overall goal of harmonization by identifying specific items for standardization. Future activities aim at further specification of methods for prospective assessments of the effectiveness of active safety, which will enhance comparability and trustworthiness in this kind of studies and thus contribute to increased traffic safety.     

薄膜扩散梯度技术在重金属生物有效态监测中的应用

重金属生物有效性是评估重金属元素迁移性、生物可利用性和生态影响的关键参数。薄膜扩散梯度技术(DGT)是一种原位被动采样技术,因其具有原位富集性、形态选择性,可提供被监测物质在监测时间段内的平均浓度等优点,可作为生物对重金属摄取的模拟替代物对环境介质中重金属的生物可利用度进行预测,已被广泛应用于环境介质中重金属生物有效性的测定。研究主要介绍了DGT技术的原理、组成和特点,评述了其近年来在水体、土壤、沉积物中重金属生物有效态应用方面的新进展,提出了DGT技术未来要提高抗生物污染能力及寻找可与DGT技术联用的相关技术的观点。     

郑州市土壤与绿色植物中汞的分布特征

汞污染具有生物积累性,因而得到社会广泛关注。研究监测和评估了郑州市城区土壤和绿色植物叶片中汞浓度、分布、污染水平等。研究发现郑州市主城区土壤总汞浓度为0. 150～0. 958 mg/kg,平均浓度为0. 448 mg/kg;郑州市主城区绿色植物叶片总汞浓度为0. 017～0. 249 mg/kg,平均浓度为0. 107 mg/kg;土壤和叶片中汞浓度按功能区排序为交通枢纽区工业区商业区行政区高教区住宅区。采用地累积指数法对郑州市80个土壤样品的汞污染水平进行评估,结果显示60%受到轻度污染,35%受到偏中度污染,5%受到中度污染。研究较为全面地分析了土壤汞污染的现状及浓度,为郑州市土壤汞污染防治提供参考。     

A proactive process risk assessment approach based on job hazard analysis and resilient engineering

Complex systems often experience a long period of incubation before accidents occur. Therefore, a proactive risk assessment is essential for process safety. The conventional job hazard analysis (JHA) method has been an effective tool to conduct a process risk assessment in the high-risk industrial field. However, the conventional JHA is inadequate for the proactive risk assessment since it is usually conducted during and before one specific operation process. Operations such as startup and maintenance are performed repeatedly on the lifecycle of a plant. Therefore, the risk reduction measures for the industrial process should include not only preventive actions obtained from the conventional JHA but also recovery ones. Resilience engineering (RE) has proven to be helpful for the recovery analysis of a complex system. The objective of this paper is to propose a proactive and comprehensive process risk assessment approach based on JHA and RE. The mechanism of applying RE to address operation process risk is illustrated. The integrated approach can provide guidelines to establish proactive risk reduction measures as well as maintain a low-risk level. Finally, a gas transmission startup process risk assessment case is presented to demonstrate its applicability.     

微塑料污染现状及对海洋生物影响的研究进展

综述了微塑料的主要来源、空间分布及我国水体和沉积物中微塑料的污染现状,以及微塑料与有机污染物的复合污染影响,并从海洋生物摄食微塑料、微塑料与污染物的复合生态风险、微塑料对水生生物的承载作用、微塑料在食物链中的传递及对人类健康的风险4个方面探讨了微塑料对海洋生物的影响。指出,采样方法和分析技术的标准化、微塑料-污染物复合体的毒性效应机制、微塑料对人类健康风险的评估是未来的重点研究方向。     

An integrated approach for assessing the migration behavior of chlorpyrifos and carbaryl in the unsaturated soil zone

Chlorpyrifos (O, O-diethyl O-3,5,6-trichloropyridin-2-yl phosphorothioate) and carbaryl (1-naphthyl methylcarbamate) are often applied concurrently as insecticides in food production. The aim of this study was to research their migration behavior in a real environment. We researched the leaching of both pesticides by setting up field lysimeters on a farm with the typical soil used in fruit production today. In order to analyze the variables involved in this process, we performed complementary adsorption studies, we performed complementary adsorption studies using batches and undisturbed soil laboratory columns for both compounds. The results for pesticide transport through the lysimeters showed that less than 1% of chlorpyrifos was recovered in the leachates, while almost 17% was recovered for carbaryl. Having completed the experiment in undisturbed laboratory columns, soil analysis showed that chlorpyrifos mainly remained in the first 5 cm, while carbaryl moved down to the lower sections. These results can be explained in view of the sorption coefficient values (K_D) obtained in horizons A and B for chlorpyrifos (393 and 184 L kg^?1) and carbaryl (3.1 and 4.2 L kg^?1), respectively. By integrating the results obtained in the different approaches, we were able to characterize the percolation modes of these pesticides in the soil matrix, thus contributing to the sustainable use of resources.     

太原汾河景区跨桥断面水体污染的时空变化模式研究

选取太原汾河景区跨桥断面8个监测点,在2012年3月—2013年10月期间对河流8项水质参数进行监测,并结合派生的水体综合污染指数及主成分分析方法分析和评价景区水污染时空变化特征。结果表明,景区水质污染变化时空差异明显,上游污染相对较小,下游污染较重;春季溶解氧和p H值变化幅度最大,夏季除总氮和氨氮外,其他各污染物均有显著变化特征,秋季则以氨氮、总氮和总磷变化最为显著。主成分分析结果显示,虽然各监测点水体污染的关键影响因子不同,但总磷是太原市河流水体污染的共同解释因子。     

The Response of Hydrophytes to Environmental Pollution with Heavy Metals

The effects of Cu²⁺, Cd²⁺, and Ni²⁺ at low and high concentrations (0.025 and 0.25 mg/ml) on the accumulation capacity, the state of the pigment complex, and photosynthesis rate have been studied in model experiments with three floating hydrophytes (Hydrocharis morsus-ranae L., Lemna gibba L., and Potamogeton natans L.) and four submerged hydrophytes (Elodea canadensis Michx., Lemna trisulka L., Ceratophyllum demersum L., and Potamogeton lucens L.). Copper and cadmium are especially toxic at the concentrations studied. The effect of Cu²⁺ was the strongest in hydatophytes, and the effect of Cd²⁺, in pleustophytes. It is hypothesized that the differences between hydrophytes with respect to accumulation of metals and decrease in photosynthesis rate may cause predominant elimination of submerged species. Therefore, changes in the species structure of hydrophyte communities may be expected in waters polluted with metals.     

Experience in quantitative analysis of floristic structure and diversity in Samarskaya Luka

Quantitative methods have been applied to the study of floristic structure and diversity in Samarskaya Luka. The results show that Samarskaya Luka is a floristically heterogeneous area in which six elementary floras can be distinguished. This area has been assessed as a floristically autonomous formation, and its floristic representativeness was estimated.