Using social resilience and resource dependency to increase the effectiveness of marine conservation initiatives in Salum,Egypt

The social and economic ramifications of marine conservation strategies such as marine protected areas (MPAs) are important to consider prior to their implementation to ensure that they do not exceed the resilience of resource-users and that resource protection might be maximised through compliance and low resistance. This paper presents a framework in which the human dimensions can be more easily and usefully integrated into the design and delivery of conservation initiatives. The framework espouses quantifying (1) the level of dependency on the resource; (2) perceptions towards conservation initiatives; and (3) social resilience. The framework is applied in Salum, Egypt, which is the site of a prospective MPA.     

Nature and prevalence of non-additive toxic effects in industrially relevant mixtures of organic chemicals

The concentration addition (CA) and the independent action (IA) models are widely used for predicting mixture toxicity based on its composition and individual component dose–response profiles. However, the prediction based on these models may be inaccurate due to interaction among mixture components. In this work, the nature and prevalence of non-additive effects were explored for binary, ternary and quaternary mixtures composed of hydrophobic organic compounds (HOCs). The toxicity of each individual component and mixture was determined using the Vibrio fischeri bioluminescence inhibition assay. For each combination of chemicals specified by the 2ⁿ factorial design, the percent deviation of the predicted toxic effect from the measured value was used to characterize mixtures as synergistic (positive deviation) and antagonistic (negative deviation). An arbitrary classification scheme was proposed based on the magnitude of deviation (d) as: additive (10%, class-I) and moderately (10 < d  30%, class-II), highly (30 < d  50%, class-III) and very highly (>50%, class-IV) antagonistic/synergistic. Naphthalene, n-butanol, o-xylene, catechol and p-cresol led to synergism in mixtures while 1, 2, 4-trimethylbenzene and 1, 3-dimethylnaphthalene contributed to antagonism. Most of the mixtures depicted additive or antagonistic effect. Synergism was prominent in some of the mixtures, such as, pulp and paper, textile dyes, and a mixture composed of polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons. The organic chemical industry mixture depicted the highest abundance of antagonism and least synergism. Mixture toxicity was found to depend on partition coefficient, molecular connectivity index and relative concentration of the components.     

Vulnerability Assessment of Sea Level Rise Over Port Said Governorate, Egypt

An assessment of the impact of sea level rise on the city of Port Said, Egypt has been carried out using remote sensing and GIS techniques. Bruun's is used to estimate horizontal retreat, due to three scenarios of sea level rise, taking into account local subsidence rates. Overlaying horizontal retreat on land use obtained by remote sensing enabled us to estimate possible losses and socio-economic impacts. Results indicate serious physical and socio-economic impacts. It is suggested that protection measures must be carried out with emphasis on building breakwaters along the most vulnerable shoreline area.     

The perceived psychological distance of climate change impacts and its influence on support for adaptation policy

Factors influencing support for climate mitigation policy in the United States are well researched, however, research regarding individuals’ support for climate adaptation policy is relatively sparse. This study explores how an individual’s perception of climate change impacts may influence their support for adaptation actions. Results of a survey of the U.S. public (n = 653) indicates that individuals who believe climate change impacts are unlikely to happen or will primarily affect other people in other places are less likely to be concerned about climate change impacts and less likely to support climate adaptation. However, an individual’s support for climate change adaptation measures is not influenced by their perception of when climate change impacts will occur even when taking into account concern for climate impacts. Critical for policy-makers, a belief that climate adaptation measures will not be effective attenuates the relationship between psychological distance, concern for climate change impacts, and adaptation policy measures. Our results indicate that to effectively communicate about climate change, policy-makers should emphasize that: (i) climate change impacts are occurring, (ii) that their constituents are being affected now, or will be in the future, and (iii) communicate that adaptation measures can be effective in addressing risks associated with climate change impacts.     

Climate Change Responsibility and China＇s Endeavor

The problem of climate change is a global challenge. It is closely associated with social development and human survival, and it has a significant impact to all countries on energy develop- ment, economic competitiveness, technological innovation, and way of life. In recent years, with the rapid economic development in China, there is a rumor that the rapid growth of China＇s carbon dioxide emission offset the efforts of the international community in reducing emissions, and China should bear the international responsibility corresponding to its significant role in greenhouse gas emission, which obviously are unfair and not objective. As this paper reveals, ＂China environment responsibility＂ that is the socalled ＂China environment threat＂ or theories, China has made a positive contribution to addressing the climate change in the past and China will still be the backbone on the protection of global climate in the future.     

Future Nutrient Load Scenarios for the Baltic Sea Due to Climate and Lifestyle Changes

Dynamic model simulations of the future climate and projections of future lifestyles within the Baltic Sea Drainage Basin (BSDB) were considered in this study to estimate potential trends in future nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea. Total nitrogen and total phosphorus loads were estimated using a simple proxy based only on human population (to account for nutrient sources) and stream discharges (to account for nutrient transport). This population-discharge proxy provided a good estimate for nutrient loads across the seven sub-basins of the BSDB considered. All climate scenarios considered here produced increased nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea over the next 100 years. There was variation between the climate scenarios such that sub-basin and regional differences were seen in future nutrient runoff depending on the climate model and scenario considered. Regardless, the results of this study indicate that changes in lifestyle brought about through shifts in consumption and population potentially overshadow the climate effects on future nutrient runoff for the entire BSDB. Regionally, however, lifestyle changes appear relatively more important in the southern regions of the BSDB while climatic changes appear more important in the northern regions with regards to future increases in nutrient loads. From a whole-ecosystem management perspective of the BSDB, this implies that implementation of improved and targeted management practices can still bring about improved conditions in the Baltic Sea in the face of a warmer and wetter future climate.     

上海地区洪涝致灾因子复合概率及未来变化分析

根据上海地区三阶段(1970-2004年,2020-2054年和2060-2094年)四要素(降水、吴淞口风速、太湖流域面雨量、吴淞口潮位)提取年极值时间序列,采用GEV分布首先开展"雨洪风潮"各致灾因子气候变化分析,结果显示:"雨洪风潮"各致灾因子年极值受气候变化影响均呈增加趋势;进而基于Copula联合函数中的三维变量的超越概率模型,计算"雨洪风""雨洪潮"和"雨风潮"三种"三碰头"联合超越概率,结果表明:未来气候变化时段相对于历史基期,上海地区"雨洪风""雨洪潮"和"雨风潮"三种三碰头概率呈增加趋势。洪涝灾害致灾因子同时发生的复合概率增加,预示着气候变化影响下上海地区防汛排涝安全存在更大风险。     

中国松嫩草原羊草植硅体对全球变暖和氮沉降模拟的响应研究

在松嫩草原应用红外线增温和人工施氮的方法对羊草群落模拟全球变暖和氮沉降,提取羊草中的植硅体,分析探讨植硅体的形态及数量变化规律.羊草中的植硅体可以划分为4个大类和12个亚类,以及较小的植硅体碎片,其中帽型植硅体含量高达70%.尖顶帽型和平顶帽型植硅体与刺帽型植硅体可能有不同的发育机制,并且尖型植硅体对施氮更为敏感;与对照相比,增温处理对羊草植硅体的发育有促进作用(长宽增加0.1～2.6μm),而施氮处理则有一定的抑制作用(长宽减小0.1～1.4μm),增温和施氮交叉作用,则施氮对羊草植硅体发育表现出的抑制作用明显减弱;施氮处理中出现其他处理中未见到的空心棒型(占棒型总量的46%),而且除棒型、帽型、尖型以外的植硅体含量增加到10%,从而推测,对于以羊草为优势植物的松嫩草原,施氮的影响可能要强于增温,如果两者同时作用,增温能在一定程度上缓解施氮的影响.实验中的羊草植硅体对模拟全球变化很敏感,说明植硅体对环境因子的改变很敏感,其作为古环境的代用指标应是可靠的.     

A Yin‐Yang approach to education policy regarding health and the environment: early‐careerists' image of the future and priority programmes

Since the inception of sustainable development (SD), there has been a somewhat ignored contradiction between paradigms that are ecosystem‐based and paradigms that are human‐based or purely economic. We suggest that this contradiction can be unified through a balance of the two. The Chinese Yin‐Yang philosophy is applied as a tool or approach to seeking balance between these ecocentric and anthropocentric paradigms. Priority education policy design for the merging of ecology and health are projected through an Ecohealth lens in response to increasing SD challenges and the intention of the international Ecohealth organization to contribute to SD goals. Meeting SD goals along the nexus of health and environment is further considered through early‐careerist cultural assessments and projections. The groups considered for their professional image of the future are: members of the Ecohealth Association Student Section and Chinese early‐careerists participating in a related conference. In response to SD goals, a problem‐based learning design is suggested as an education policy priority. Rather than approaching SD as a boolean concept, for example, by either focusing on ecosystem sustainability or economic development, we suggest education policy for programmes and curriculums that will help emerging professionals balance these paradigms, so as to best address national and global challenges.     

江湖关系变化及其对鄱阳湖水环境影响研究——代“江湖关系变化及其对鄱阳湖水环境影响研究”专栏序言

近年来,江湖关系变化成为影响鄱阳湖水环境的重要因素之一.立足于近年来鄱阳湖与长江江湖关系变化,试图通过鄱阳湖发展演变及江湖关系变化影响因素,以及江湖关系变化对鄱阳湖入湖污染负荷、水质、沉积物和藻类水华影响等方面,深入揭示江湖关系变化对鄱阳湖水环境影响机理.其中,从N、P生物地球化学循环的角度切入,研究揭示江湖关系变化对水体和沉积物N、P等生源要素的产生、输移、转化与降解过程以及赋存形态与时空分布等的影响机理;利用水质-水动力耦合模型量化江湖关系改变对鄱阳湖水动力及水质的影响;应用SWAT模型以及GIS技术,定量估算了江湖关系变化对鄱阳湖入湖营养盐负荷及其典型湿地植被景观格局时空变化的影响;利用现场观测和室内模拟试验研究预测了江湖关系变化对鄱阳湖藻类水华风险的影响,并讨论分析了其影响的重点区域和时段.