Emissions associated with meeting the future global wheat demand: A case study of UK production under climate change constraints

Climate change, population growth and socio-structural changes will make meeting future food demands extremely challenging. As wheat is a globally traded food commodity central to the food security of many nations, this paper uses it as an example to explore the impact of climate change on global food supply and quantify the resulting greenhouse gas emissions. Published data on projected wheat production is used to analyse how global production can be increased to match projected demand. The results show that the largest projected wheat demand increases are in areas most likely to suffer severe climate change impacts, but that global demand could be met if northern hemisphere producers exploit climate change benefits to increase production and narrow their yield gaps. Life cycle assessment of different climate change scenarios shows that in the case of one of the most important wheat producers (the UK) it may be possible to improve yields with an increase of only 0.6% in the emission intensity per unit of wheat produced in a 2 °C scenario. However, UK production would need to rise substantially, increasing total UK wheat production emissions by 26%. This demonstrates how national emission inventories and associated targets do not incentivise minimisation of global greenhouse gas emissions while meeting increased food demands, highlighting a triad of challenges: meeting the rising demand for food, adapting to climate change and reducing emissions.     

Testing emissions equivalency metrics against climate policy goals

The climate impacts of energy technologies are frequently assessed using equivalency metrics, which convert emissions of multiple greenhouse gases to a common scale. Numerous metrics have been proposed that incorporate, in different ways, information about the time-dependent impacts of gases. However, more focus has been placed on proposing metrics than on testing their performance in real-world use cases. Here we present a testing approach that simulates how metrics would affect the selection of energy technology portfolios that comply with a CO₂-equivalent emissions cap. Unintended radiative forcing outcomes can occur, emphasizing the need to test metrics in a practical context. We demonstrate the approach for policies designed to limit radiative forcing and discuss extensions to limits on temperature or economic impacts. Metric performance is evaluated by (i) how much actual radiative forcing overshoots the intended stabilization level and (ii) the level of energy consumption permitted. We use this testing approach to study a variety of metrics based on an estimated radiative forcing stabilization time under two climate policy goals. We find that these goal-inspired metrics, if chosen carefully, can exhibit performance improvements over the standard global warming potential (GWP) while maintaining its transparency and ease-of-use. These alternative metrics can significantly reduce the overshoot in radiative forcing observed with the GWP, at a small cost in energy consumption. Moreover, simple metrics can exhibit similar performance improvements to more complex ones.     

Effective EU and Member State policies for stimulating CCS

Although CO₂ capture and storage (CCS) is widely recognised as an option to mitigate climate change, consistent and effective EU policies to advance CCS are still absent. This paper discusses policy instruments for advancing large-scale deployment of CCS in the European Union, and evaluates them in a multi-criteria analysis. The EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU-ETS) is a cost-effective instrument for limiting greenhouse gas emissions, but it is questionable whether its currently limited time horizon and short-trading periods will lead to substantial CCS diffusion. Complementary policies at the EU and the Member State level may repair this and provide sufficient incentives for CCS. Potential policies include financial instruments such as investment subsidies, a feed-in scheme, or a CO₂ price guarantee, as well as a CCS mandate or a low-carbon portfolio. These policy options differ with respect to their environmental effectiveness, possible interaction with the EU-ETS, costs and financial risk involved, and their competition with other mitigation options. Interactions between Member State policies and the EU-ETS are smaller in scope than those of EU-wide policies, but they are more likely to lead to displacement of financial resources from other low-carbon technologies. In addition, national policies may pose a significant part of the financial risk of CCS operations with Member States, reducing the operator's incentive to innovate. Overall, structural policies at the EU level, such as a mandate or a low-carbon portfolio standard would be more conducive for realising large-scale deployment of CCS across the EU as well as more acceptable to environmental organisations.     

The multiple communities of low-carbon transition: an assessment of communities involved in forest carbon measurement

In recent writing on sociotechnical transitions theory communities are mostly conceived of as being local and place-based (“grassroots”). In this paper the implications for sociotechnical transitions theory of having multiple communities operating at different geographical scales, and with different objectives, are examined through a case study of low-carbon innovation in forests. The focus of analysis is the communities promoting sociotechnical innovations in the measurement of forest carbon. Innovation is being driven by the international United Nations climate policy initiative “Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation” (REDD+). The rise of REDD+ policy has prompted a flurry of activity in related scientific research, especially in the field of remote sensing. But other types of community are also actively positioning themselves as experts in forest carbon measurement: there are multiple communities at work, each with varying claims to innovation and expertise, from local (place-based) forest communities to international communities of foresters and forest ecologists. Recognition of the multiple communities operating within sociotechnical systems usefully draws our attention to the politics of innovation.     

在用轻型汽油车排放水平及趋势变化拟合研究

基于佛山市2.7万条稳态加载模拟工况法(ASM)的尾气排放检测数据,在分析了总体排放劣化特征随行驶里程呈规律性变化的基础上,通过分类统计和回归分析方法研究了在用轻型汽油车的排放劣化增长模型及不同排放标准机动车的排放特征.分析结果表明,线性增长模型能很好地表现CO,HC,NO三种污染物随行驶里程的劣化规律;不同排放标准的轻型汽油车排放特征差异很大,国零、Ⅰ、Ⅱ排放水平很高,对总体排放影响较大.研究结论对于预测机动车污染变化趋势,完善在用车检查/维护制度等方面可以提供理论支持.     

鄱阳湖流域排污权初始分配模式的比较研究

排污权初始分配是排污权交易的起点和基础,在分配模式和实证研究方面需要加强。采用地区人口法、经济总量法、历史排污量法、环境容量法和综合分配法5种模式研究了鄱阳湖流域11个地市水污染物化学需氧量(COD)与氨氮的初始排污权分配。结果表明:COD和氨氮初始排污权在地市之间的分配格局相似;南昌、新余与鹰潭3市按经济总量模式分配的排污量明显高于其它模式,上饶、吉安两市人口分配模式高于其它模式,景德镇、九江两市历史排污量模式高于其它模式,赣州市环境容量模式高于其它模式,宜春市综合模式高于其它模式。综合分配模式为赣州市排污权总量最高,南昌、九江、吉安、宜春、抚州和上饶6市次之,景德镇、萍乡、新余、鹰潭4市最低。总体来看,排污权配额因分配模式不同而有所差异,综合分配模式得到的初始排污权最为合理。建议鄱阳湖流域严格执行综合分配模式下的各地市初始排污权分配额度,确保区域经济社会与生态环境的协调发展。     

城市轨道交通上盖物业振动影响评价标准选取探讨

对现行的振动评价标准中相关问题进行分析,认为VLzmax和VLz10分别作为城市轨道交通列车振动和环境振动背景评价量是合理的。并对标准JGJ/T 170-2009应用提出了建议。     

RESEARCH: Optimizing the Mix of Strategies for Control of Vehicular Emissions

/ A number of strategies for the control of vehicular emissions are being considered by the Philippine government to address Metropolitan Manila's air quality problem. An analytical tool is needed for optimizing criteria pollutant reductions given the budgetary constraints. The simplest approach is to take costs and pollutant removals to be linear with each strategy's scale of activity, and this is readily solved as a linear programming problem. Another approach is to use a dynamic system of weights which shift with progressive improvements in pollutant emissions. The two approaches yield somewhat different results, suggesting the sensitivity of the solution to the assumed weights. The study also illustrates the importance of a sound methodology for evaluating priorities given to different air quality goals. One such methodology may involve a polling of expert panels and the public to gain insight into the relative importance given to competing emissions reduction goals. An informal polling of resource agency staff was conducted and discussed in this paper. The authors take the position that proper planning involves tracing intermediate steps to the final outcome and not just focusing on the latter.KEY WORDS: Vehicular emissions; Urban air quality; Emissions control; Optimization; Manila; Environmental systems analysis     

成都市典型非道路工程机械排气烟度分析

采用不透光烟度计采集了成都市典型工程机械(挖掘机、装载机、叉车和压路机)排气烟度,研究了机械功率对其活动水平(燃油消耗量和年均工作时间)的影响,同时也研究了机械发动机构造和机械排放标准对其排气烟度的影响;同时,采用氮硫测定仪分析了机械油品硫含量,研究了硫含量对其排气烟度的影响.试验结果表明:机械功率越大的工程机械,燃油消耗量和年均工作时间数越高.成都典型工程机械排气烟度排放水平最低的为装载机,最高的为压路机;同时,超高排放装载机与叉车的占比较高.工程机械排气烟度受机械发动机排量、机械发动机构造、机械发动机排放标准和机械用油的综合影响,通过对工程机械装配电控发动机、提高原机排放标准和使用低硫燃油均能直观反映出机械排气烟度不同程度的改善.此外,油品中硫含量越高,机械排气烟度越大.     

Cracking the code: the genesis, use and future of the Code of Conduct

This paper reflects on the genesis of the Code of Conduct for the International Red Cross and Red Crescent Movement and Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) in Disaster Relief, on the tenth anniversary of its adoption. The origins, usage and future of the code are examined with respect to three debates, current at the time of its inception, namely: the debate about the core content of humanitarianism; the debate about coherence and the consensual nature of the humanitarian community; and the debate about the need for, and the ability to demonstrate, accountability. The paper concludes that although the Code of Conduct was very much a product of its time, its content remains relevant today. However, its future application hinges on the capacity of those who purport to follow it to realise true accountability, and on proving that the code, written essentially for natural disasters, is relevant to contemporary complex emergencies.