支撑环境监测预警体系的计算机信息系统建设思路

环境监测预警体系只有依靠计算机信息系统才能发挥其作用,根据预警体系的特点、内容以及要实现的功能,论述了信息系统硬件建设和软件建设的基本要求、系统的组成和系统实现的方法。     

Modelling the long-term soil response to atmospheric deposition at intensively monitored forest plots in Europe

The dynamic soil chemistry model SMART was applied to 121 intensive forest monitoring plots (mainly located in western and northern Europe) for which both element input (deposition) and element concentrations in the soil solution were available. After calibration of poorly known parameters, the model accurately simulated soil solution concentrations for most plots as indicated by goodness-of-fit measures, although some of the intra-annual variation especially in nitrate and aluminium concentrations could not be reproduced. Model evaluations of two emission-deposition scenarios (current legislation and maximum feasible reductions) for the period 1970-2030 show a strong reduction in sulphate concentrations between 1980 and 2000 in the soil due to the high reductions in sulphur emissions. However, current legislation hardly reduces future nitrogen concentrations, whereas maximum feasible reductions reduces them by more than half. Maximum feasible reductions are also more effective in increasing pH and reducing aluminium concentrations, mostly below ‘critical’ values.     

复杂社会技术系统安全事故的成因结构敏感性及预防对策研究

简要回顾现有复杂社会技术系统安全事故的成因理论存在的局限性,根据大量统计资料和经验总结构建事故成因理论的缺陷。该研究试图从分析和推理入手,根据复杂社会技术系统运行机制及事故成因结构敏感性特征,探索由于新技术快速普及应用而不断涌现的复杂社会技术系统的失效机制及事故的成因理论;解释复杂社会技术系统安全事故的严重程度差异性、时间方向性及情境依赖性;为任何因新技术普及应用而产生的人造系统的安全分析及事故预防提供理论和方法支撑。     

An assessment methodology for successional systems. I. Null models and the regulatory framework

Standard procedures for evaluating environmental impact involve comparison between before and after conditions or scenarios or between treatment and control site pairs. In many cases, however, endogenous directional change (natural succession) is expected to occur at a significant rate over the period of concern, particularly for manmade systems such as impoundments. Static evaluations do not provide an adequate approach to such problems. A new evaluation frame is proposed. Nominal system behavior over time is characterized by a stochastic envelope around a nominal trajectory. We show that both the state variance and the sampling variance can change over time. In this context, environmental regulations can be framed as constraints, targets, or conformance to ideal trajectories. Statistical tests for determining noncompliance are explored relative to process variance, sample error, and sample size. Criteria are elucidated for choosing properties to monitor, sample size, and sampling interval.     

Integration of long-term fish kill data with ambient water quality monitoring data and application to water quality management

Almost half (354) of all fish kills (805) in South Carolina, USA, between 1978 and 1988 occurred in the coastal zone. These kills were analyzed for causative, spatial, and temporal associations as a distinct data set and as one integrated with ambient water quality monitoring data. Estuarine kills as a result of natural causes accounted for 42.8% followed by man-induced (35.1%) and undetermined causes (22.1%). Although general pesticide usage was responsible for 53.9% of man-induced kills, weed control activities around resorts and municipal areas accounted for slightly more kills (20.9%) than did agricultural (19.8%) or vector control (13.2%) uses. A dramatic decline in agricultural-related kills has been observed since 1986 as the integrated pest management approach was adopted by many farmers. When taken with the few kills (12.0%) resulting from wastewaters, this suggests that these two land-use activities have been successfully managed via existing programs (IPM and NPDES, respectively) to minimize their contributions to estuarine fish kills. Ambient trend monitoring data demonstrated no coastal-wide dispersion of pesticide pollution. These data confirmed the nature of fish kills to be site-specific, near-field events most closely associated with the contiguous land-use practices and intensities. Typically, fish kill data are considered as event-specific data limited to the bounds of that event only. Our analysis has shown, however, that a long-term data set, when integrated with ambient water quality data, can assist in regulatory and resource management decisions for both short- and long-term planning and protection applications.     

HYDROLOGIC AND HYDRAULIC RESEARCH IN MOUNTAIN RWERS1

ABSTRACT: Although our current (1990) knowledge of hydrologic and hydraulic processes is based on many years of study, there are river environments where these processes are complex and poorly understood. One of these environments is in mountainous areas, which cover about 25 percent of the United States. Use of conventional hydrologic and hydraulic techniques in mountain-river environments may produce erroneous results and interpretations in a wide spectrum of water-resources investigations. An ongoing U.S. Geological Survey research project is being conducted to improve the understanding of hydrologic and hydraulic processes of mountainous areas and to improve the results of subsequent hydrologic investigations. Future hydrologic and hydraulic research needs in mountainous areas are identified.     

CONFLICTING PERSPECTWES ABOUT DETECTION LIMITS AND ABOUT THE CENSORING OF ENVIRONMENTAL DATA1

ABSTRACT: Current conventions for reporting analytical results from environmental samples brings the objectives of laboratory scientists into conflict with those of environmental scientists. The objective of chemical analyses is to provide estimates of the true composition of samples. Reported results must reflect the analytical uncertainty. Current conventions require left-censoring of those results below the Limit of Detection. The objective of statistical interpretation of environmental data is to provide estimates of the characteristics of ecosystems. Such statistical analyses are often confounded by left-censoring of analytical results. We review the different points of view and propose a compromise which recognizes these conflicting perspectives.     

The use of Landsat multispectral scanner data for the analysis and management of flooding on the river Severn,England

Remote sensing has emerged as one of the major techniques for the analysis and delineation of large floods. This analysis can provide data invaluable for the hydrological management of large river systems. A need for information on the extent of floodplain inundation for the lower reaches of the largest river in the UK was met by a search through Landsat images of floods and the analysis of the best example recorded. Automated classification of the Landsat imagery of this flood on the river Severn in 1977 was used to provide estimates of the extent and spatial distribution of inundation. Flood images were generated using the Plessey IDP 3000 image processor, and the maps derived accorded well with aerial photography and qualitative flood information. Three distinct floodplain environments were delineated and flood images produced by different spectral bands compared. Specific questions prompted by flood hazard management and concerning the processes and extent of flooding were answered by the Landsat data analysis. Management of the flood risk of large rivers is expensive and remote sensing data is a relatively cheap and effective way of monitoring control works and providing data for the prediction of the effects of future hydrological works. Remote sensing is a practical way in which spatial information concerning the behavior of large dynamic systems can be obtained both quickly and relatively cheaply.     

IDENTIFICATION OF AQUIFER DISPERSIVITIES: METHODS OF ANALYSIS AND PARAMETER UNCERTAINTY1

ABSTRACT: This paper presents a method for estimating aquifer dispersivities in solute transport models. Sensitivity equations are derived for the calculation of sensitivity coefficients. A modified Gauss-Newton algorithm is used to perform the least-squares minimization. A statistical procedure is outlined to assess reliability of the estimated parameters. The solute transport model is solved by the upstream weighted, multiple cell balance method which combines the concepts of local mass balance and finite element approximations. A one-dimensional solute transport problem in a vertical column system is first used to illustrate the inverse technique. A second example considers the parameter identification problem for three-dimensional solute transport with a unidirectional steady and uniform flow field. The third example solves the parameter identification problem in a three-dimensional, stream-aquifer, solute transport system with steady state flow. Numerical experiments are conducted to study data requirements for parameter identification.