煤工尘肺患者生存质量与家庭功能和社会支持的关系研究

为了解煤工尘肺患者的生存质量的现状及其与家庭功能和社会支持之间的关系,采用SF-36量表、家庭功能评定量表和社会支持评定量表对212名煤工尘肺患者进行问卷调查。单因素分析显示,煤工尘肺患者在SF-36量表的躯体疼痛、总体健康、活力、情感职能、精神健康5个维度的得分与对照组的差异有统计学意义（p〈0.05）。生存质量得分与家庭功能得分呈负相关,生存质量得分与社会支持得分呈正相关。以生存质量得分为因变量,以家庭功能和社会支持的分量表得分为自变量进行多元逐步回归分析显示,生存质量的影响因素为社会支持利用度、家庭功能的总的功能、情感介入、社会支持的客观支持和问题解决。研究结果表明,煤工尘肺患者生存质量较低,与其家庭功能和社会支持有密切关系,需要从家庭功能和社会支持采取综合措施,提高煤工尘肺患者的生存质量。     

水源型流域污染系统控制科技支撑战略

创新水源型流域污染系统控制科技支撑战略,对我国流域水环境综合治理与管理具有前瞻意义.文章从引导科技支撑发展方向,发展多维流域认知系统,创立流域系统控制知识,创新水源流域环境技术,建立流域水环境经济学与完善流域环境管理体系六个方面构建了水源流域污染系统控制的科技支撑战略体系;从制定水源型流域环境区划、水源型流域安全发展规划、水源型流域环境保护规划与水源型流域保护工程规划四个方面提出了水源型流域污染系统控制科技支撑的战略行动;从转变治理方向、改变治理目标与调整控制范围、优化监控指标等方面提出了水源型流域污染系统控制科技支撑的战略建议.     

基于遗传算法的支持向量机预测有机物自燃点的研究

根据定量构效关系(QSPR)原理,研究自燃点(AIT)与其分子结构间的内在定量关系。以265种有机化合物作为样本集,随机选择238种作为训练集,27种作为测试集,用遗传算法(GA)进行变量选择,分别建立多元线性回归(MLR)模型和支持向量机(SVM)模型研究有机物的自燃点与其分子结构间的关系。通过分析,发现造成模型预测效果不佳的原因是试验数据本身存在问题。通过对2个模型的比较,结果为GA-SVM模型明显优于GA-MLR模型,说明自燃点与其分子结构间具有很强的非线性关系。     

2014~2017北京市气象条件和人为排放变化对空气质量改善的贡献评估

2014～2017年北京地区霾日数和污染日数逐年减少,PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)、SO_2和NO_2年平均质量浓度下降,污染程度缓解,采暖期中的11～12月尤为明显.针对空气质量的显著改善,从气象条件的改善和减排措施两方面进行探讨分析,并结合数值模式和大数据挖掘技术实现气象和排放对大气污染贡献率的定量化研究.结果表明,2017年与过去3 a相比,平均风速增加7. 9%,≥3. 4 m·s~(-1)的风速频次最高(10. 6%),≥70%湿度日占比最小(25. 1%);其中,采暖期与过去3 a同期相比,小风日数减少8. 6%、大气环境容量指数和通风指数平均增加约11%,边界层高度以3. 2%·a~(-1)的速率升高,尤其11～12月各要素改善更显著,且该时段内2014年各因子变化与2017年相似.非采暖期(4～10月)累积降水量558. 3 mm,仅次于2016年,有利于污染物的清除和湿沉降.利用WRF-CHEM对霾和污染频发的12月进行模拟发现,气象要素的改变导致2017年12月北京PM_(2.5)质量浓度较2014～2016年同期分别降低5%、38%和25%.因缺少政府实际施行的减排方案,无法利用WRF-CHEM量化气象和减排的具体贡献率,因此借助大数据挖掘算法,基于K近邻算法(KNN)和支持向量机(SVM)模型对气象和减排对空气质量改善的贡献进行评估,结果显示2017年减少的霾日和重污染日,65. 0%归因于减排的贡献,35. 0%归因为气象条件的改善.可见,气象与生态环境部门应继续加强数据开放共享,科学开展气象条件预报与减排评估.     

基于链式多重插补的WOA-ELM煤与瓦斯突出预测模型*

为了提高缺失数据下煤与瓦斯突出预测准确率,提出1种基于链式支持向量机多重插补（MICE_SVM）的鲸鱼优化算法（WOA）-极限学习机（ELM）预测模型,以淮南朱集矿区为例,选取5个煤与瓦斯突出影响指标作为模型特征,采用提出的MICE_SVM算法插补突出事故数据中缺失值,利用WOA优选ELM输入层权值及隐含层阈值,构建煤与瓦斯突出预测模型,将插补后数据用于WOA-ELM模型的训练与测试,并与其他模型的预测效果对比。研究结果表明:MICE_SVM插补前、后的有突出数据预测准确率分别为83.02%,90.41%,MICE_SVM显著提高了有突出预测准确率,对无突出和整体的预测准确率提高不明显;数据插补后WOA优化ELM对无突出、有突出和整体的预测准确率分别为97.94%,96.25%,96.48%,较优化前分别提高了5.79%,5.84%,5.55%,数据插补后WOA-ELM为最佳预测模型。     

EDSS及其在EIA中的应用

区域环境系统是由人-地相互作用而形成的开放的和复杂的社会、经济与环境的复合巨系统,由此产生的复杂环境问题给环境决策带来了诸多的不确定性,而环境决策支持系统(EDSS)可以辅助环境保护决策工作者提高决策的科学性和有效性.叙述了EDSS的概念,全面回顾了30多年来国内外环境决策支持系统在水环境规划与管理、大气环境质量管理、城市固体废物管理等研究领域的应用进展,并举例重点分析了其在环境影响评价(EIA)中的应用.同时具备强大数据更新能力和环境质量分析预测功能的EDSS,是解决EIA工作中复杂问题的有力工具.基于近年来新技术的发展,EDSS将在智能化,3S技术及多媒体技术应用等方面得到进一步发展,并在环境规划与管理和EIA等工作中发挥更加重要的作用.      

Assessing the Institutional Effectiveness of State Environmental Agencies in Turkey

Improving the performance of the state environmental agencies (SEAs) necessitates an effective institutionalization of governmental environmental management functions. There are examples of successful and unsuccessful SEAs in several parts of the world. Analysis and assessment of these cases can deliver useful insights for institution builders. The objective of this article is the assessment of the institutional effectiveness of the SEAs in Turkey through the perceptions of the experts using the Delphi Technique. In this regard, a checklist is developed including 16 criteria and 123 subcriteria to measure the institutional effectiveness of the SEAs. Twenty-eight national and international experts have formed a Delphi panel and evaluated the national and local conditions. Results, based on the perceptions of the experts, indicate that the overall effectiveness of the SEAs is far less than satisfactory. Negative consensus has been reached over the effectiveness of 13 of the16 criteria and 95 of the123 subcriteria; however, no consensus has been achieved over the remainder of the parameters. The survey has also proven that the Delphi Technique can be effectively used for that purpose. Utilization of the checklist method is also useful in diagnosing the problematic components of the SEAs. It is recommended that this approach be used in similar cases elsewhere.     

TUGAI: An Integrated Simulation Tool for Ecological Assessment of Alternative Water Management Strategies in a Degraded River Delta

The development of ecologically sound water allocation strategies that account for the needs of riverine ecosystems is a pressing issue, especially in semiarid river basins. In the Aral Sea Basin, a search for strategies to mitigate ecological and socioeconomic deterioration has been in process since the early 1990s. The Geographic Information System–based simulation tool TUGAI has been developed to support the policy determination process by providing a simple, problem-oriented method to assess ecological effects of alternative water management strategies for the Amudarya River. It combines a multiobjective water allocation model with simple, spatially explicit statistical and rule-based models of landscape dynamics. Changes in environmental conditions are evaluated by a fuzzy habitat suitability index for Populus euphratica, which is the dominant species of the characteristic riverine Tugai forests. Water management scenarios can be developed by altering spatiotemporal water distribution in the delta area or the amount of water inflow into the delta. Outcomes of scenario analysis are qualitative comparisons of the ecological effects of different options for a time period of up to 28 years. The given approach utilizes different types of knowledge, from quantitative hydrological data to qualitative local expert knowledge. The main purpose of the tool is to integrate the knowledge in a comprehensive way to make it available for discussions on alternative policies in moderated workshops with stakeholders. In this article, the modules of the tool, their integration, and three hypothetical scenarios are presented. Based on the experience gained when developing the TUGAI tool, we propose that the general framework can be transferred to other areas where tradeoffs in water allocation between the environment and other water users are of major concern. The potential for a simulation tool to structure and inform a complex resource management situation by involving local experts and stakeholders in the development of possible future scenarios will become increasingly valuable for transparent and participatory resource management.     

Rapidly assessing cobenefits to advance threat-management alliances

Conservation strategies aimed at reducing threats to biodiversity can have significant implications for multiple sectors in a socioeconomic system, but these cobenefits are often poorly understood. For example, many of the threats to native species also impede agricultural production, yet agriculture is typically perceived as in competition with conservation objectives. Although a comprehensive, multiobjective decision analysis is usually beyond the scope and capacity of conservation decision makers, failing to incorporate key socioeconomic costs and benefits into conservation decision-making processes can result in missed opportunities for diversifying outcomes and creating cost-sharing multisectoral partnerships. We devised a straightforward and readily interpretable approach to incorporate cobenefits into a threat-management prioritization approach. We used it to analyze the agricultural cobenefits of implementing 9 invasive animal management strategies designed to ensure the persistence of 148 threatened species across Australia's Lake Eyre Basin over 50 years. A structured elicitation process with 24 participants (scientists, land managers, agriculturalists, and other stakeholders) was used to collect information on each strategy, including costs, technical and social feasibility, benefits to native threatened species, and cobenefits to agricultural production systems. The costs of targeted invasive animal management to save threatened species across the basin (AU$33 million/year) outweighed the overall benefits to the agricultural industry (estimated AU$226 million/year). The return on investment for these management strategies varied substantially when agricultural cobenefits were considered alongside threatened species benefits and showed synergies and challenges. Our approach demonstrates the value of incorporating cobenefits of conservation actions into cost-effectiveness analyses to guide potential investment and partnerships and to diversify implementation pathways.     

煤巷顶板围岩结构承载能力弱化分析

为了揭示煤巷顶板围岩承载能力的弱化机理，结合已有的研究成果，建立巷道顶板三向承载梁结构承载弹塑流弱化分析模型，确定三向承载梁结构承载状态的分析方法，提出用围岩塑性区深度、宽度、长度作为评价巷道围岩承载的弱化分析指标，研究围岩性质、支护强度、采动应用等诱导因子对煤巷顶板结构承载能力弱化分析指标的影响规律。研究结果表明:随着围岩强度的提高、支护强度的增加、扰动应力的减小，弱化分析指标呈似线性减小的变化规律，且减幅由大到小排序为塑性区长度Sy，宽度Sx和深度Sz，同时提高围岩强度、支护强度，减小采动作用应力，煤巷顶板弱化分析指标的减小程度显著高于单因子的改善。