中国出口隐含碳排放影响因素研究——基于反事实法的分析

中间消耗的"消耗规模与部门构成"是影响中国出口碳排放的重要因素。基于世界投入产出数据库(WIOD)1995—2015年数据,在部门归类与形式变换基础上,本文选取"单位产出碳排放量"、"完全消耗系数"与"出口值"为中国出口隐含碳排放的影响因子,构建"因子变动—反事实构造—效果评价"分析框架,借助规模指数与结构指数对影响因子的变化动态进行描述,并通过反事实构造对"因子变动"的影响效果进行评价。研究发现:"单位产出碳排放量"规模指数单调递减,Spearman偏度系数为右偏态,说明相比于意愿产出而言,非意愿产出"碳排放量"具有内在的规模不经济;"中间消耗"规模指数与碳偏向性指数在截面上始终处于高位水平,时序上出现了显著的递增趋势,说明中国单位出口值的中间消耗量偏大,消耗投入在结构上偏向于高碳部门,与"技术前沿国"美国存在显著"技术差距";"出口值"规模指数呈现"平缓扩张——快速攀升——V型震荡"的阶段性特征,结构指数经历了以基期2002年为顶点、"先下降、后上升、再平稳"的变化轨迹,说明"出口值"作为最具弹性的影响因子,受"亚洲金融危机"、"加入世界贸易组织"与"美国次债危机"等外部冲击的影响明显,对出口碳排放的推动作用存在伸缩性与阶段性差异。从"因子变动"影响效果来看,中国产出、中间消耗与出口的部门构成具有内生关联,均显著偏向于高碳部门,对出口隐含碳排放增长产生了叠加性的"正向"扩张效应。基于此,本文认为,总量控制与结构优化的视角需从产品环节向中间消耗环节扩展,现阶段应深化要素市场改革,加速要素禀赋升级,借力要素价格机制与差别化产业规制政策,从上游环节抑制出口碳排放的输入来源。     

基于模糊影响图方法的库存弹药事故概率分析

针对库存弹药安全的特殊性,在分析国内外库存弹药典型事故案例的基础上,指出FTA、ETA等传统概率计算方法存在的局限。提出一种基于模糊影响图(FID)的库存弹药事故概率分析方法,并对FID模型的构建过程和算法进行概述;以弹药被盗事故作为实例分析,并得到事故概率分布图和累积概率曲线。结果表明,FID的算法理论及建模过程能较好地克服FTA、ETA等传统方法的局限性,实例分析指出弹药被盗事故在10-4数量级的隶属度最高,且事故发生概率更趋向于10-3～10-1数量级,从而得到一旦仓库安全防范措施不到位,就很有可能发生弹药被盗事故的结论。     

Theoretical and Empirical Analysis on Influence Factors of Modern Agricultural Equipment Level in the Processof Agricultural Sustainable Development

To promote modern agricultural equipment level is one characteristic of constructing and developing modern agriculture in China.This paper makes up stepwise linear regression analysis model of influence factors of modern agricultural equipment level,and chooses rural labor,per capita income of rural residents,rural investment,proportion of people at secondary education level and at higher level in per hundred rural labor force and arable land area as independent variables,and total power of machine as induced variable.The major results show that the relativity of modern agricultural equipment level,rural investment and education level of peasants is remarkable,and they are the major influence factors of modern agricultural equipment level.Raising investment level of rural infrastructure construction as well as and research and development and promotion of advanced and applicable modern agricultural equipment,improving quality and education level of peasants can accelerate the development of China’s modern agricultural equipment effectively in the process of agricultural sustainable development.     

基于AHP的可听噪声影响因素权值分析

影响超高压输电线路可听噪声的因素众多，对影响可听噪声的因素进行合理分析确定其对可听噪声影响的权重是进行可听噪声预测和合理有效降低可听噪声的前提。对影响可听噪声的因素进行分析并运用层次分析法（AnalyticHierarchyProcess，AHP）对影响可听噪声的主要因素进行加权分析，以定量的形式确定影响因素的相对重要度。结果表明，应用层次分析法确定的可听噪声影响因素权重符合实际，准确性较高，为可听噪声选择主要影响因素用于预测及有效降低可听噪声提供参考依据。     

The role of intergenerational influence in waste education programmes: the THAW project

Whilst the education of young people is often seen as a part of the solution to current environmental problems seeking urgent attention, it is often forgotten that their parents and other household members can also be educated/influenced via home-based educational activities. This paper explores the theory of intergenerational influence in relation to school based waste education. Waste Watch, a UK-based environmental charity (www.wastewatch.org.uk), has pioneered a model that uses practical activities and whole school involvement to promote school based action on waste. This methodology has been adopted nationally. This paper outlines and evaluates how effective school based waste education is in promoting action at a household level. The paper outlines Waste Watch's 'Taking Home Action on Waste (THAW)' project carried out for two and half years in Rotherham, a town in South Yorkshire, England. The project worked with 6705 primary age children in 39 schools (44% of primary schools in the project area) to enable them to take the "reduce, reuse and recycle message" home to their families and to engage these (i.e. families) in sustainable waste management practices. As well as substantial increases in students' knowledge and understanding of waste reduction, measurement of the impact of the project in areas around 12 carefully chosen sample schools showed evidence of increased participation in recycling and recycling tonnages as well as declining levels of residual waste. Following delivery of the project in these areas, an average increase of 8.6% was recorded in recycling set out rates which led to a 4.3% increase in paper recycling tonnages and an 8.7% increase in tonnages of cans, glass and textiles collected for recycling. Correspondingly, there was a 4.5% fall in tonnages of residual waste. Waste Watch's THAW project was the first serious attempt to measure the intergenerational influence of an education programme on behaviour at home (i.e. other than schools' own waste). It clearly shows that household recycling behaviour can be positively impacted by intergenerational influence via a practical school-based waste education model. However, although the model could potentially have a big impact if rolled out nationally, it will require seed funding and the long-term durability of the model has not yet been fully quantified.     

桥梁抗震主动控制的稳定性研究

主动控制应用于实际结构 ,需要考虑其控制效果的稳定性问题 ,为此 ,分析了桥梁抗震主动控制中可能出现的计算模型误差和系统误差 ,并讨论了应用H2 控制和H∞ 控制两种算法的稳定性。理论分析和仿真计算表明 ,在频谱特性不同的地震激励下 ,H2 控制和H∞ 控制两种算法都可以取得满意的控制效果 ;对于计算模型误差 ,H2 控制和H∞ 控制两种算法的鲁棒性相当 ,控制效果稳定 ;对于系统误差 ,H∞ 控制算法比H2 控制算法鲁棒性强 ,在较大的误差下可以保持控制效果的稳定性     

岩溶区隧道爆破开挖地震危害控制的研究

隧道爆破开挖是爆破安全工程问题 ,也是工程质量安全问题 ,从长远考虑更是安全及环保问题 ,因震害的潜隐性和危害性 ,必须对其从宏观与微观、工程及周边环境全面考虑。笔者结合爆破作用下微裂纹扩展机理的分析 ,将爆破震速耦合到裂纹损伤断裂条件中 ,得到爆破震动的安全控制标准计算公式 ,结合工程实例 ,给出了不同条件下岩溶区隧道爆破开挖安全控制的建议标准 ,并且提出了爆破地震危害的控制措施 ,为类似工程提供参考。     

环境信息不对称对于循环经济的影响及其对策——兼谈环境信息服务业的发展与完善

指出循环经济背景下我国环境信息分布中的致命问题--环境信息的不对称分布,并指出不对称的表现,而后分析了环境信息对称对于循环经济的影响,在此基础上提出解决环境信息不对称的对策--发展环境信息服务业,并初步探讨了发展环境信息服务业的模式和步骤.     

POLITICAL PARTICIPATION AND WATER RATES: A REPLY1

ABSTRACT: Mercer and Morgan provide several valid criticisms of a previous analysis on political influence and water rates. More sophisticated statistical analyses may be justified given the high degree of interdependence among regulated firm variables. Theoretically, there are numerous measures of political activity superior to the one employed in the original analysis; however, data unavailability precludes their use. A better (and yet practical) measure of consumer leverage may be relative dominance by a specific political party. Until relatively easy access is obtained to municipal election data, the possible political variables that can be employed in more elegant analyses are few in number, and each has theoretical limitations.     

基于WTA的湿地周边农户受偿意愿及影响因素研究

为了实现鄱阳湖湿地生态系统的可持续发展，促进公平合理的湿地保护局面的形成，对鄱阳湖湿地周边农户家庭生产生活的基本情况、生态环境的认知、以及基于禁渔期、保护候鸟和封洲禁牧等保护措施的生态补偿意愿进行了深入调查。结果表明：（1）鄱阳湖周边农户的家庭收入与湿地紧密相关，湖区农户具有一定的湿地生态环境认知和生态保护意识；（2）193份有效问卷中愿意接受补偿的比例高达881%，农户户均生态补偿意愿为3399元/(a·户)，由此估算出鄱阳湖湿地生态补偿额约为每年582亿元；（3）Tobit回归模型的计量分析结果表明，农户的受偿意愿受年龄、生态效益的认知及生态保护态度的显著影响，研究认为提高农户的生态保护意识、对湖区农户进行合理的生态补偿是解决湿地保护与可持续发展问题的关键。